Bucks vs Celtics Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Mar 20th 2024

Alright hoop-heads, let’s cut to the chase: the clash of titans is upon us! The Milwaukee ‘Fear the Deer’ Bucks, with their solid 44-win record, are charging headfirst into the Celtics’ enchanted forest, aka the TD Garden. And Boston? They’ve been busy painting the town green with an impressive 54-win streak, and they’re not about to let the Bucks ruin their masterpiece. The Eastern conference is on the edge of its seat, as both teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, with no room for error. The bookies have spoken, setting the over/under at a whopping 224.5 and favoring the Celtics to hold their ground. Coming off a commanding victory against the Pistons, the Celtics are ready to parry the Bucks, who just trampled the Suns in their last game. So, buckle up, folks! As the clock ticks towards the 07:30PM EST tipoff, we’re in for a game that promises to be more thrilling than a buck’s duel in the middle of the Boston Commons. Remember, when the Bucks meet the Celtics, it’s not just a game, it’s a battle of wills where only the ‘deer-est’ survives!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 20, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: TD Garden, Boston

Vegas Odds

	MIL ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+270	-340	223.5	7.0/-7.0
Recent	+225	-275	224.5	10.5/-10.5
Difference	-45	+65	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

16W-16L

30.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

8W-2L

HOME

30W-3L

69.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
01/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	23	15	32	32		102	Over
01/11/24	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	41	34	36	24		135	Over
11/22/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	17	36	26	37		116	Over
11/22/23	Boston Celtics BOS	29	38	27	25		119	Over
03/30/23	Boston Celtics BOS	34	41	39	26		140	Over
03/30/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	26	21	27	25		99	Over
02/14/23	Boston Celtics BOS	35	28	32	21	9	125	Over
02/14/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	27	37	26	26	15	131	Over
12/25/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	33	25	32		118	Over
12/25/22	Boston Celtics BOS	36	26	38	39		139	Over
04/07/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	30	38	24		121	Over
04/07/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	36	33	33	25		127	Over
12/25/21	Boston Celtics BOS	35	27	32	19		113	Over
12/25/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	22	25	43	27		117	Over
12/13/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	30	20	24	29		103	Under
12/13/21	Boston Celtics BOS	21	30	34	32		117	Under
11/12/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	30	25	26	27	5	113	Over
11/12/21	Boston Celtics BOS	30	21	37	20	14	122	Over

Bucks Vs Over/Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Bucks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/17	@ PHX	140-129W	35	35	10	94
03/14	@ PHI	114-105W	37	29	14	72
03/12	vs SAC	94-129L	44	23	13	84
03/10	vs LAC	124-117W	41	28	7	88
03/08	vs LAL	122-123L	43	28	6	94
03/06	vs GSW	90-125L	36	19	15	89
03/04	@ LAC	113-106W	46	20	11	78
03/01	vs CHI	113-97W	49	22	7	86
02/29	vs CHA	111-99W	44	21	7	86
02/27	@ CHA	123-85W	51	29	9	90

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/18	@ DET	119-94W	53	30	9	95
03/17	vs WAS	130-104W	43	30	14	87
03/14	@ PHX	127-112W	33	31	8	89
03/12	vs UTA	123-107W	46	25	8	92
03/11	vs POR	121-97W	45	34	3	100
03/09	vs PHX	117-107W	43	29	12	95
03/07	vs DEN	109-115L	47	24	12	91
03/05	vs CLE	104-105L	53	24	13	93
03/03	@ GSW	140-88W	51	35	7	96
03/01	@ DAL	138-110W	47	33	9	94

Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Malik Beasley SG	22.3	21.9	21.0	93%	21.2
Damian Lillard PG	52.5	49.5	42.1	93%	42.7
Brook Lopez C	26.9	24.8	27.6	93%	27.5
Khris Middleton SF	29.8	29.9	32.1	100%	31.2
Bobby Portis PF	33.5	27.2	27.8	3%	43.2

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SF	40.0	50.5	39.5	100%	40.0
Jrue Holiday PG	29.9	29.2	28.8	100%	29.2
Kristaps Porzingis C	37.7	43.4	38.1	100%	38.5
Jayson Tatum PF	49.2	49.4	47.4	100%	47.8
Derrick White SG	35.6	41.5	31.7	100%	32.1

Bucks Notable Injuries

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C): Avg: 31.0pts, 11.3reb, 6.4ast, 35.0 minutes. Last game: 03/14/24. Impact: 9.3
Danilo Gallinari (PF/C): Avg: 6.1pts, 2.2reb, 1.2ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/14/24. Impact: 0.9
Marjon Beauchamp (SG/SF): Avg: 4.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.7ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/06/24. Impact: 0.7
Andre Jackson Jr. (PG/SF): Avg: 2.3pts, 2.0reb, 0.9ast, 10.5 minutes. Last game: 03/12/24. Impact: 0.8
Thanasis Antetokounmpo (PF/C): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.4reb, 0.5ast, 4.3 minutes. Last game: 03/12/24. Impact: 0.4

Celtics Notable Injuries

Neemias Queta (C): Avg: 4.2pts, 3.9reb, 0.4ast, 11.3 minutes. Last game: 03/17/24. Impact: 1.8
Jaden Springer (SG/SF): Avg: 3.4pts, 1.6reb, 1.0ast, 10.5 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 1.1
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): Avg: 3.1pts, 1.1reb, 0.6ast, 8.7 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 1.6
Jordan Walsh (SF): Avg: 0.8pts, 2.6reb, 0.8ast, 7.4 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 1.2
JD Davison (PG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.5reb, 0.0ast, 1.5 minutes. Last game: 03/12/24. Impact: 0.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jrue Holiday	BOS	Pts	10.5	12.2	+1.7	60%	70%	67%	67%	MIL	+4.4	#30
Jae Crowder	MIL	Pts	6.5	8.2	+1.7	60%	40%	27%	27%	BOS	-7.1	#1
Jayson Tatum	BOS	Reb	7.5	8.2	+0.7	20%	40%	40%	40%	MIL	-0.8	#8
Damian Lillard	MIL	Reb	4.5	5.1	+0.6	80%	60%	60%	60%	BOS	-0.2	#13
Brook Lopez	MIL	Ast	1.5	1.6	+0.1	40%	40%	47%	47%	BOS	-0.3	#14

View All Player Prop Projections

Bucks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#5	#14	#23	#4	-9.6%
PF	#3	#7	#22	#9	-3.8%
PG	#7	#7	#4	#3	-14.3%
SF	#12	#8	#7	#10	-6.6%
SG	#30	#27	#29	#29	11.9%

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#26	#24	#14	#19	2.9%
PF	#2	#12	#2	#2	-15.8%
PG	#26	#6	#7	#12	-2.1%
SF	#1	#5	#9	#1	-39.3%
SG	#5	#13	#9	#2	-11.3%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

114.6

122.3

Rebounds per Game

43.3

45.3

Assists per Game

25.8

28.5

Steals per Game

6.9

7.6

Blocks per Game

4.0

6.9

Shots per Game

85.8

90.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

15.3

18.2

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.4

56.2

3-Pt Percentage per Game

39.0

43.0

Turnovers per Game

10.6

9.9

Fouls per Game

16.1

14.6

Recent Trends

Jaylen Brown (SG/SF) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Derrick White (PG/SG) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 22.0 pts, 10.0 reb, 10.0 ast against DET
Patrick Beverley (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 65.5% to 27.2, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
AJ Green (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.0% to 20.2, 14.6 min average previous 3 games.
Sam Hauser (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.7% to 26.5, 20.0 min average previous 3 games.