Bucks vs Pacers Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Apr 28th 2024
Bucks
1W-2L
April 28, 2024
07:00PM EST
Odds: 216.0 o/u
Pacers
2W-1L
Get ready to rumble at Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight, folks! The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers are squaring off in a first-round NBA Playoff game that’s sure to shake up the standings. After a series of blowouts in the opening games, this matchup promises some edge-of-your-seat action, with the Bucks looking to buck their recent losing streak and the Pacers aiming to pace themselves back into winning form. With the tipoff set for 7 PM EST, the stakes are high and the betting lines are buzzing. Will the Bucks leap over their hurdles, or will the Pacers continue to set the pace? It’s all going down tonight in a clash where only the strongest will stampede to victory!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: April 28, 2024 07:00PM EST
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana
Vegas Odds
| MIL ML | IND ML | Over/Under | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | +255 | -310 | 220.0 | 6.5/-6.5 |
| Recent | +320 | -430 | 216.0 | 10.0/-10.0 |
| Difference | +65 | -120 | -4.0 | – |
Team Performance
23.8% Win Probability
76.2% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
| Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/26/24 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 22 | 33 | 28 | 28 | 70 | 118 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 39 | 28 | 23 | 21 | 100 | 121 | |||
| 04/23/24 | Indiana Pacers IND | 30 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 00 | 125 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 26 | 29 | 28 | 25 | 00 | 108 | |||
| 04/21/24 | Indiana Pacers IND | 21 | 21 | 29 | 23 | 00 | 94 | Under | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 30 | 39 | 14 | 26 | 00 | 109 | |||
| 12/07/23 | Indiana Pacers IND | 27 | 36 | 28 | 37 | 00 | 128 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 29 | 22 | 43 | 25 | 00 | 119 | |||
| 01/03/24 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 31 | 37 | 29 | 33 | 00 | 130 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 33 | 33 | 47 | 29 | 00 | 142 | |||
| 01/01/24 | Indiana Pacers IND | 25 | 31 | 28 | 38 | 00 | 122 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 32 | 30 | 26 | 25 | 00 | 113 | |||
| 12/13/23 | Indiana Pacers IND | 33 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 00 | 126 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 36 | 34 | 31 | 39 | 00 | 140 | |||
| 11/09/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 24 | 36 | 34 | 30 | 00 | 124 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 38 | 28 | 27 | 33 | 00 | 126 | |||
| 03/29/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 39 | 46 | 30 | 00 | 149 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 30 | 39 | 38 | 29 | 00 | 136 | |||
| 03/16/23 | Indiana Pacers IND | 30 | 25 | 49 | 35 | 00 | 139 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 40 | 24 | 37 | 22 | 00 | 123 | |||
| 01/27/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 45 | 40 | 29 | 27 | 00 | 141 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 30 | 26 | 43 | 32 | 00 | 131 | |||
| 01/16/23 | Indiana Pacers IND | 38 | 38 | 22 | 21 | 00 | 119 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 32 | 33 | 28 | 39 | 00 | 132 | |||
| 02/15/22 | Indiana Pacers IND | 27 | 36 | 31 | 25 | 00 | 119 | Over | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 35 | 30 | 29 | 00 | 128 | |||
| 12/15/21 | Indiana Pacers IND | 33 | 20 | 34 | 12 | 00 | 99 | Under | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 33 | 25 | 29 | 27 | 00 | 114 | |||
| 11/28/21 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 26 | 26 | 39 | 27 | 00 | 118 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 26 | 21 | 27 | 26 | 00 | 100 | |||
| 10/25/21 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 32 | 35 | 18 | 00 | 119 | Over | |
| Indiana Pacers IND | 30 | 27 | 29 | 23 | 00 | 109 |
Bucks Vs Over/Under
Pacers Vs Over/Under
Bucks Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | vs OKL | 107-125L | 42 | 27 | 17 | 85 |
| 04/10 | @ ORL | 117-99W | 43 | 27 | 12 | 84 |
| 04/09 | @ BOS | 104-91W | 49 | 29 | 16 | 81 |
| 04/07 | @ NYK | 109-122L | 38 | 27 | 14 | 75 |
| 04/05 | @ TOR | 111-97W | 45 | 21 | 13 | 88 |
| 04/03 | @ MEM | 101-111L | 44 | 26 | 11 | 95 |
| 04/02 | vs WAS | 113-117L | 57 | 31 | 12 | 103 |
| 03/30 | vs ATL | 122-113W | 40 | 27 | 10 | 78 |
| 03/28 | vs NOP | 100-107L | 46 | 21 | 14 | 82 |
| 03/26 | @ LAL | 124-128L | 61 | 37 | 14 | 119 |
Pacers Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | vs CLE | 120-129L | 39 | 37 | 13 | 89 |
| 04/09 | vs TOR | 140-123W | 44 | 33 | 13 | 99 |
| 04/07 | @ MIA | 117-115W | 37 | 27 | 6 | 86 |
| 04/05 | @ OKL | 126-112W | 39 | 30 | 13 | 88 |
| 04/03 | vs BRO | 111-115L | 45 | 27 | 9 | 103 |
| 04/01 | @ BRO | 133-111W | 47 | 35 | 9 | 103 |
| 03/29 | @ LAL | 109-90W | 46 | 27 | 8 | 91 |
| 03/27 | vs CHI | 99-125L | 40 | 25 | 13 | 85 |
| 03/25 | vs LAC | 133-116W | 34 | 28 | 8 | 86 |
| 03/24 | vs LAL | 145-150L | 40 | 39 | 11 | 107 |
Starting Lineups
| Milwaukee Bucks | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.8 | 24.7 | 17.5 | 33% | 26.9 | |
| 29.5 | 27.8 | 24.4 | 100% | 24.8 | |
| 46.4 | 41.3 | 34.1 | 100% | 33.2 | |
|
Bobby Portis
PF
|
48.2 | 35.6 | 31.5 | 17% | 35.6 |
| Indiana Pacers | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.2 | 44.7 | 40.9 | 100% | 41.2 | |
| 21.2 | 22.9 | 20.4 | 100% | 20.6 | |
| 26.7 | 25.1 | 22.3 | 100% | 22.6 | |
| 47.6 | 44.8 | 39.2 | 100% | 39.6 | |
| 38.6 | 37.3 | 32.5 | 100% | 32.9 |
Bucks Notable Injuries
- Damian Lillard (PG): Avg: 24.8pts, 4.3reb, 7.0ast, 35.6 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 7.5
- Marjon Beauchamp (PG/SF): Avg: 4.3pts, 2.0reb, 0.7ast, 12.7 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 0.7
- Chris Livingston (SF): Avg: 1.2pts, 1.0reb, 0.2ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 0.4
Pacers Notable Injuries
- Jarace Walker (SF/PF): Avg: 3.4pts, 1.8reb, 1.2ast, 10.1 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 1.1
- Kendall Brown (SG/SF): Avg: 1.1pts, 0.3reb, 0.3ast, 3.6 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 0.2
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
| Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
| Tyrese Haliburton | IND | Pts | 17.5 | 21.8 | +4.3 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | MIL | +0.1 | #18 |
| Bobby Portis | MIL | Pts | 19.5 | 23.6 | +4.1 | 20% | 20% | 13% | 13% | IND | +4.2 | #21 |
| Khris Middleton | MIL | Reb | 6.5 | 6.9 | +0.4 | 60% | 50% | 40% | 40% | IND | -5.2 | #1 |
| T.J. McConnell | IND | Ast | 3.5 | 4.7 | +1.2 | 60% | 70% | 80% | 80% | MIL | +0.5 | #25 |
| Ben Sheppard | IND | Ast | 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | 80% | 80% | 73% | 73% | MIL | +1.4 | #21 |
Bucks Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #12 | #3 | #1 | #3 | -15.6% |
| PF | #16 | #14 | #22 | #19 | 0.6% |
| PG | #28 | #22 | #12 | #27 | 29.4% |
| SF | #20 | #6 | #21 | #14 | -3.4% |
| SG | #18 | #30 | #25 | #23 | 4.2% |
Pacers Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #20 | #12 | #3 | #12 | -5.0% |
| PF | #21 | #13 | #12 | #11 | -4.3% |
| SF | #21 | #1 | #1 | #4 | -43.6% |
| SG | #9 | #21 | #4 | #7 | -5.8% |
Team Comparison
Recent Trends
- Tyrese Haliburton (PG) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 18.0 pts, 10.0 reb, 16.0 ast against MIL
- Malik Beasley (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 42.2% to 15.3, 26.6 min average previous 3 games.
- Patrick Beverley (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 40.8% to 37.6, 26.7 min average previous 3 games.
- Quenton Jackson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 50.5% to 12.0, 24.3 min average previous 3 games.
- Khris Middleton (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 62.4% to 37.5, 23.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Bobby Portis (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.0% to 34.8, 24.5 min average previous 3 games.
- Pascal Siakam (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.0% to 39.5, 30.4 min average previous 3 games. The Pacers have a 2-game winning streak at home.
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