Bucks vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and buck the trend as the NBA playoffs continue to sizzle! Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks, with their eyes set on climbing up from their current standing, are storming into the Kaseya Center to face the Miami Heat in what promises to be a nail-biter of a matchup. With both teams coming off recent wins and looking to make a statement early in the playoffs, the odds are as tight as ever. The stakes? Just a shot at moving up the Eastern conference ladder in a season where the playoff intensity is just starting to heat up. Tip-off is at 8:30 PM EST, so don’t miss out as these two teams light up the scoreboard and possibly set the nets on fire. After all, when the Bucks meet the Heat, you can expect the game to be anything but lukewarm!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: November 26, 2024 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	MIL ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+115	-135	223.0	2.5/-2.5
Recent	+105	-135	224.0	2.5/-2.5
Difference	-10	0	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

18W-25L

48.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

24W-21L

51.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
02/13/24	Miami Heat MIA	40	29	29	25	123	Under
02/13/24	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	24	24	21	97	Under
11/28/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	31	28	34	38	131	Over
11/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	22	40	35	27	124	Over
10/30/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	24	21	41	114	Over
10/30/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	34	35	25	122	Over
02/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	24	18	25	99	Over
02/24/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	42	31	22	33	128	Over
02/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	36	30	23	115	Over
02/04/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	34	28	32	29	123	Over
01/14/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	20	25	26	24	95	Under
01/14/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	25	24	34	111	Under
01/12/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	23	22	28	29	102	Under
01/12/23	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	33	30	108	Under
03/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	38	31	22	119	Over
03/02/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	36	28	29	27	120	Over
12/08/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	26	25	26	27	104	Under
12/08/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	20	39	30	113	Under
12/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	29	24	26	102	Over
12/04/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	34	35	36	19	124	Over
10/21/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	17	26	26	26	95	Over
10/21/21	Miami Heat MIA	40	32	33	32	137	Over

Bucks Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Bucks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
11/23	@ CHA	125-119W	51	20	14	89
11/22	@ IND	129-117W	44	33	17	90
11/20	@ CHI	122-106W	45	30	11	80
11/18	@ HOU	101-100W	43	21	15	83
11/16	vs CHA	114-115L	40	31	9	92
11/13	@ DET	127-120W	47	26	11	95
11/12	@ TOR	99-85W	47	25	16	94
11/10	@ BOS	107-113L	41	21	12	81
11/08	vs NYK	94-116L	41	20	12	83
11/07	@ UTA	123-100W	41	20	10	84

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
11/24	@ DAL	123-118W	57	27	9	107
11/18	@ PHI	106-89W	53	26	13	87
11/17	vs IND	110-119L	38	21	10	90
11/15	vs IND	124-111W	36	27	10	87
11/12	vs DET	121-123L	43	25	10	101
11/10	vs MIN	95-94W	43	18	22	77
11/08	vs DEN	122-135L	33	33	11	94
11/06	vs PHX	112-115L	43	27	10	92
10/30	@ NYK	107-116L	39	27	10	81
10/28	@ DET	106-98W	44	24	9	88

Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
G. Antetokounmpo PF	64.0	59.6	58.8	100%	59.2
Andre Jackson Jr. SG	12.0	11.7	8.1	27%	12.0
Damian Lillard PG	45.0	41.3	43.8	100%	44.1
Brook Lopez C	30.0	34.5	28.0	100%	28.3
Taurean Prince SF	16.0	18.7	16.9	50%	20.4

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	43.0	42.9	37.9	100%	38.4
Jimmy Butler SF	41.0	34.6	35.9	100%	36.3
Tyler Herro PG	43.0	43.2	36.2	93%	37.0
Haywood Highsmith PF	16.0	16.2	18.0	27%	16.3
Terry Rozier SG	22.0	21.1	29.6	100%	29.9

Bucks Notable Injuries

Pat Connaughton (SF/PF): Avg: 5.6pts, 3.1reb, 2.1ast, 21.6 minutes. Last game: 11/16/24. Impact: 2.1
Stanley Umude (SG): Avg: 4.5pts, 1.9reb, 0.4ast, 11.1 minutes. Last game: 11/22/24. Impact: 1.1
Marjon Beauchamp (PG/SF): Avg: 3.7pts, 1.7reb, 0.6ast, 10.5 minutes. Last game: 11/22/24. Impact: 0.4
Tyler Smith (PF): Avg: 2.2pts, 0.7reb, 0.0ast, 3.2 minutes. Last game: 11/22/24. Impact: 0.6
Chris Livingston (PF): Avg: 1.2pts, 1.0reb, 0.2ast, 4.1 minutes. Last game: 11/22/24. Impact: 0.4
Liam Robbins (C): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.8reb, 0.0ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 11/20/24. Impact: 0.4
AJ Johnson (SG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.2reb, 0.2ast, 2.1 minutes. Last game: 11/12/24. Impact: 0.2

Heat Notable Injuries

Alec Burks (PG/SG): Avg: 10.6pts, 2.4reb, 1.4ast, 18.6 minutes. Last game: 11/24/24. Impact: 3.1
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 4.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.6ast, 15.0 minutes. Last game: 11/18/24. Impact: 2.0
Kel’el Ware (C): Avg: 2.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0ast, 6.5 minutes. Last game: 11/18/24. Impact: 0.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Tyler Herro	MIA	Pts	20.5	24.1	+3.6	40%	60%	47%	47%	MIL	+1.0	#23
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	Pts	29.5	33.1	+3.6	60%	60%	60%	60%	MIA	+3.3	#28
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Reb	5.5	5.7	+0.2	60%	40%	40%	40%	MIL	+1.3	#30
Brook Lopez	MIL	Ast	1.5	1.8	+0.3	60%	60%	47%	47%	MIA	+0.1	#18

View All Player Prop Projections

Bucks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#13	#4	#6	#6	-8.3%
PF	#7	#18	#19	#7	-3.3%
PG	#30	#17	#12	#27	7.9%
SF	#24	#11	#8	#11	-1.0%
SG	#23	#30	#27	#26	6.5%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#5	#9	#18	#5	-8.6%
PF	#14	#26	#6	#10	-2.6%
PG	#6	#14	#29	#15	-0.0%
SF	#28	#5	#3	#19	1.5%
SG	#3	#21	#18	#6	-4.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

112.9

110.0

Rebounds per Game

44.2

42.6

Assists per Game

25.4

25.7

Steals per Game

6.8

8.4

Blocks per Game

5.2

3.6

Shots per Game

87.2

87.3

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

13.6

2-Pt Percentage per Game

56.1

52.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.2

36.9

Turnovers per Game

12.6

10.6

Fouls per Game

18.3

16.4

Recent Trends

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 3 consecutive games.
Josh Christopher (PG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Pat Connaughton (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.9% to 21.5, 15.4 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 48.4% to 19.1, 12.9 min average previous 3 games.
Kevin Love (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 15.2, 11.7 min average previous 3 games.
Taurean Prince (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.2% to 24.5, 35.5 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Delon Wright (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 56.9% to 12.0, 27.9 min average previous 3 games.