Bucks vs Pelicans Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Mar 28th 2024

Listen up, hoop heads! We’ve got a sizzling showdown tonight at the Smoothie King Center, where the Milwaukee Bucks, with their not-too-shabby 46-26 record, are set to lock horns with the 44-28 New Orleans Pelicans. The tip-off is happening at 8 PM EST, and lemme tell ya, the anticipation is thicker than a Wisconsin cheese curd! Both teams are neck and neck in their respective conferences, making this game as tight as a hipster’s skinny jeans. The bookies are having a field day with the over/under set at 225.5, and a line finer than a barber’s edge – Bucks at -1.5 and Pelicans at 1.5. The Pelicans, still smarting from their 112-119 tumble against OKL, and the Bucks, licking their wounds after a 124-128 loss to LAL, are both hungry for a win. So, buckle up folks, ’cause tonight, we’re gonna find out if the Bucks stop here or if the Pelicans take flight!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 28, 2024 08:00PM EST

Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Vegas Odds

	MIL ML	NOP ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-130	+110	223.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-110	-120	225.5	-1.0/1.0
Difference	+20	-230	+2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

16W-17L

52.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

19W-13L

47.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
01/27/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	32	31	24	30		117	Over
01/27/24	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	36	39	37	29		141	Over
01/29/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	19	25	44	22		110	Over
01/29/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	37	25	44	29		135	Over
12/19/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	30	36	34	28		128	Over
12/19/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	27	34	29	29		119	Over
01/01/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	24	32	26	31		113	Over
01/01/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	27	37	32	40		136	Over
12/17/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	21	28	26	9	112	Over
12/17/21	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	21	31	25	26	13	116	Over

Bucks Vs Over/Under

Pelicans Vs Over/Under

Bucks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/26	@ LAL	124-128L	61	37	14	119
03/24	@ OKL	118-93W	57	33	16	92
03/21	@ BRO	115-108W	40	27	10	91
03/20	vs BOS	119-122L	41	20	14	84
03/17	@ PHX	140-129W	35	35	10	94
03/14	@ PHI	114-105W	37	29	14	72
03/12	vs SAC	94-129L	44	23	13	84
03/10	vs LAC	124-117W	41	28	7	88
03/08	vs LAL	122-123L	43	28	6	94
03/06	vs GSW	90-125L	36	19	15	89

Pelicans Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/26	@ OKL	112-119L	37	26	9	86
03/24	vs DET	114-101W	41	27	10	81
03/22	vs MIA	111-88W	56	25	12	82
03/21	vs ORL	106-121L	33	24	18	78
03/19	vs BRO	104-91W	48	29	13	83
03/16	@ POR	126-109W	39	36	9	99
03/15	@ LAC	112-104W	40	28	8	88
03/13	@ CLE	95-116L	43	22	11	80
03/10	vs ATL	116-103W	43	32	12	75
03/08	vs PHI	103-95W	48	22	12	83

Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
G. Antetokounmpo PF	59.9	57.8	57.0	93%	57.6
Jae Crowder SG	10.4	16.4	13.9	70%	14.5
Damian Lillard PG	44.6	49.0	42.6	100%	41.9
Brook Lopez C	25.7	23.8	26.9	93%	26.7
Khris Middleton SF	32.2	32.8	33.3	100%	32.4

New Orleans Pelicans	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Herbert Jones SG	26.1	24.8	23.7	100%	24.1
CJ McCollum PG	39.0	36.5	31.8	100%	32.2
Trey Murphy III SF	34.2	28.9	27.2	40%	28.9
Jonas Valanciunas C	23.3	18.8	24.7	100%	25.0
Zion Williamson PF	51.2	40.5	40.9	100%	41.4

Bucks Notable Injuries

Patrick Beverley (PG/SG): Avg: 6.0pts, 3.1reb, 2.8ast, 19.6 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 2.4
Danilo Gallinari (PF/C): Avg: 6.0pts, 2.2reb, 1.2ast, 13.1 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.9
Marjon Beauchamp (SG/SF): Avg: 4.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.7ast, 13.0 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.7
Andre Jackson Jr. (PG/SF): Avg: 2.3pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, 10.3 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.8
Chris Livingston (SF): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.9reb, 0.3ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.4
Thanasis Antetokounmpo (PF/C): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.4reb, 0.5ast, 4.3 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.4

Pelicans Notable Injuries

Brandon Ingram (PG): Avg: 20.9pts, 5.1reb, 5.8ast, 33.0 minutes. Last game: 03/21/24. Impact: 5.7
Matt Ryan (SG/SF): Avg: 6.9pts, 1.8reb, 0.8ast, 16.5 minutes. Last game: 03/22/24. Impact: 1.2
Cody Zeller (C): Avg: 1.9pts, 2.8reb, 0.9ast, 7.8 minutes. Last game: 03/22/24. Impact: 1.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Zion Williamson	NOP	Pts	25.5	28.4	+2.9	60%	70%	47%	47%	MIL	+0.2	#19
Damian Lillard	MIL	Pts	22.5	24.6	+2.1	80%	60%	60%	60%	NOP	-0.9	#10
Larry Nance Jr.	NOP	Reb	5.5	6.3	+0.8	40%	30%	40%	40%	MIL	-0.1	#15
Brook Lopez	MIL	Reb	4.5	4.8	+0.3	60%	50%	47%	47%	NOP	+1.0	#25
Jae Crowder	MIL	Ast	0.5	0.9	+0.4	60%	60%	67%	67%	NOP	+0.9	#22

View All Player Prop Projections

Bucks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#6	#7	#11	#2	-13.5%
PF	#7	#15	#23	#11	-2.4%
PG	#10	#12	#4	#7	-11.3%
SF	#19	#15	#5	#12	-6.1%
SG	#28	#29	#27	#28	9.2%

Pelicans Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#14	#25	#1	#17	-0.2%
PF	#9	#9	#21	#9	-5.7%
PG	#9	#18	#21	#13	-3.4%
SF	#10	#30	#22	#25	14.2%
SG	#10	#1	#9	#5	-7.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

115.7

114.0

Rebounds per Game

44.6

44.4

Assists per Game

26.5

27.4

Steals per Game

6.5

7.0

Blocks per Game

3.9

4.6

Shots per Game

89.1

85.4

3-Pointers Made per Game

15.1

13.0

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.8

55.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.9

40.1

Turnovers per Game

10.9

11.9

Fouls per Game

17.9

16.9

Recent Trends

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 29.0 pts, 21.0 reb, 11.0 ast against LAL
Patrick Beverley (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.2% to 19.0, 27.2 min average previous 3 games.
AJ Green (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.8% to 11.4, 20.2 min average previous 3 games.
Khris Middleton (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 36.8% to 32.8, 24.0 min average previous 3 games.