Bucks vs Thunder Game Breakdown
Bucks
26W-21L
February 03, 2025
09:00PM EST
Odds: 232.0 o/u
Thunder
38W-9L
Get ready to rumble as the Milwaukee Bucks, looking to shake off a recent stumble, charge into the Paycom Center to face the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder in a first-round playoff clash that promises more fireworks than the Fourth of July! With the Bucks trying to claw their way up from the middle of the Eastern pack and the Thunder reigning supreme at the top of the Western conference, tonight’s 9:00 PM EST showdown is set to be a titanic tussle. The stakes are sky-high, the score predictions are soaring with an over/under of 232, and both teams are coming in hot off wildly different last games. Will the Bucks find their groove, or will the Thunder roll on with their electrifying season? It’s time to find out if the Bucks can stop the Thunder from striking again!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: February 03, 2025 09:00PM EST
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Vegas Odds
| MIL ML | OKL ML | Over/Under | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | +320 | -430 | 233.0 | 10.0/-10.0 |
| Recent | +425 | -600 | 232.0 | 11.5/-11.5 |
| Difference | +105 | -170 | -1.0 | – |
Team Performance
19.0% Win Probability
81.0% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
| Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/24 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 18 | 31 | 24 | 00 | 107 | Push | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 41 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 00 | 125 | |||
| 03/24/24 | Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 22 | 25 | 17 | 29 | 00 | 93 | Under | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 25 | 23 | 34 | 36 | 00 | 118 | |||
| 11/09/22 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 27 | 28 | 29 | 35 | 710 | 136 | Over | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 27 | 28 | 32 | 32 | 76 | 132 | |||
| 11/05/22 | Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 34 | 19 | 25 | 16 | 00 | 94 | Under | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 33 | 26 | 15 | 00 | 108 | |||
| 03/08/22 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 39 | 37 | 29 | 37 | 00 | 142 | Over | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 34 | 31 | 28 | 22 | 00 | 115 | |||
| 11/19/21 | Oklahoma City Thunder OKL | 24 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 00 | 89 | Under | |
| Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 24 | 22 | 16 | 00 | 96 |
Bucks Vs Over/Under
Thunder Vs Over/Under
Bucks Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02 | @ MEM | 119-132L | 36 | 32 | 13 | 91 |
| 01/31 | vs SAS | 118-144L | 47 | 24 | 10 | 100 |
| 01/28 | vs POR | 112-125L | 36 | 26 | 11 | 87 |
| 01/27 | vs UTA | 125-110W | 46 | 33 | 12 | 86 |
| 01/23 | @ MIA | 125-96W | 55 | 32 | 6 | 98 |
| 01/19 | @ PHI | 123-109W | 48 | 31 | 6 | 87 |
| 01/17 | @ TOR | 130-112W | 44 | 25 | 13 | 81 |
| 01/15 | @ ORL | 122-93W | 49 | 24 | 21 | 72 |
| 01/14 | @ SAC | 130-115W | 52 | 32 | 7 | 99 |
| 01/12 | vs NYK | 106-140L | 39 | 22 | 14 | 94 |
Thunder Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01 | @ SAC | 144-110W | 70 | 37 | 11 | 107 |
| 01/29 | vs GSW | 109-116L | 50 | 21 | 11 | 99 |
| 01/26 | vs POR | 118-108W | 43 | 24 | 7 | 89 |
| 01/23 | @ DAL | 115-121L | 33 | 26 | 12 | 88 |
| 01/22 | @ UTA | 123-114W | 39 | 20 | 10 | 95 |
| 01/19 | @ BRO | 127-101W | 43 | 37 | 11 | 87 |
| 01/17 | vs DAL | 98-106L | 46 | 24 | 15 | 91 |
| 01/16 | @ CLE | 134-114W | 39 | 25 | 6 | 105 |
| 01/14 | vs PHI | 118-102W | 38 | 32 | 17 | 81 |
| 01/12 | vs WAS | 136-95W | 56 | 26 | 13 | 95 |
Starting Lineups
| Milwaukee Bucks | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.0 | 60.8 | 59.0 | 100% | 59.4 | |
| 12.0 | 16.5 | 12.0 | 100% | 12.4 | |
| 45.0 | 44.8 | 43.7 | 100% | 44.0 | |
| 27.0 | 24.2 | 24.7 | 100% | 25.1 | |
| 17.0 | 22.4 | 15.6 | 80% | 16.2 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.0 | 18.6 | 22.0 | 100% | 22.3 | |
| 57.0 | 57.5 | 54.2 | 100% | 54.6 | |
| 40.0 | 37.0 | 34.3 | 100% | 33.2 | |
| 23.0 | 16.3 | 19.8 | 83% | 20.6 |
Bucks Notable Injuries
- Bobby Portis (PF/C): Avg: 13.7pts, 7.6reb, 1.5ast, 24.7 minutes. Last game: 01/23/25. Impact: 4.3
- Marjon Beauchamp (PG/SF): Avg: 3.5pts, 1.7reb, 0.5ast, 9.7 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.8
- Stanley Umude (SG): Avg: 3.4pts, 1.6reb, 0.3ast, 8.9 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.4
- Tyler Smith (PF): Avg: 2.4pts, 0.9reb, 0.1ast, 3.5 minutes. Last game: 01/23/25. Impact: 0.8
- Chris Livingston (SF): Avg: 1.0pts, 1.1reb, 0.2ast, 3.9 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.4
- AJ Johnson (SG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.5reb, 0.5ast, 2.4 minutes. Last game: 01/23/25. Impact: 0.5
Thunder Notable Injuries
- Jalen Williams (PF): Avg: 20.0pts, 4.7reb, 4.9ast, 32.6 minutes. Last game: 01/29/25. Impact: 7.0
- Alex Caruso GTD (PG/SF): Avg: 8.8pts, 3.5reb, 3.2ast, 26.0 minutes. Last game: 01/29/25. Impact: 2.7
- Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.5pts, 3.7reb, 1.8ast, 13.9 minutes. Last game: 02/01/25. Impact: 3.8
- Dillon Jones (PF): Avg: 2.2pts, 2.0reb, 0.8ast, 8.8 minutes. Last game: 01/23/25. Impact: 1.1
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
| Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | Pts | 29.5 | 32.6 | +3.1 | 80% | 70% | 60% | 60% | OKL | -3.4 | #1 |
| Brook Lopez | MIL | Pts | 10.5 | 12.1 | +1.6 | 60% | 60% | 53% | 53% | OKL | -1.6 | #10 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | OKL | Reb | 11.5 | 12.7 | +1.2 | 100% | 60% | 67% | 67% | MIL | -1.1 | #6 |
| Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | Reb | 2.5 | 3.3 | +0.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | 80% | OKL | +0.4 | #23 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKL | Ast | 5.5 | 6.5 | +1.0 | 40% | 50% | 53% | 53% | MIL | +0.2 | #18 |
Bucks Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #9 | #15 | #2 | #9 | -5.9% |
| PF | #25 | #6 | #9 | #11 | -1.7% |
| PG | #13 | #30 | #18 | #25 | 2.8% |
| SF | #8 | #4 | #14 | #5 | -6.8% |
| SG | #22 | #28 | #26 | #21 | 3.8% |
Thunder Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #10 | #25 | #5 | #4 | -8.9% |
| PF | #10 | #2 | #4 | #2 | -11.9% |
| PG | #26 | #16 | #2 | #7 | -4.0% |
| SF | #1 | #12 | #19 | #2 | -11.9% |
| SG | #3 | #23 | #17 | #4 | -7.6% |
Team Comparison
Recent Trends
- Jaylin Williams (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.2% to 16.8, 24.1 min average previous 3 games. The Bucks have a 2-game losing streak on the road.
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