Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game Breakdown

Get ready for some high-stakes hardwood action as the Minnesota Timberwolves, balancing at .500, dash into the American Airlines Center to challenge the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve been tearing up the court with a solid lead in the Western conference. It’s playoff time, baby, and today’s 3:30 PM EST showdown promises to dial up the intensity. After a series of first-round blowouts, this matchup is set to bring the heat, with the Timberwolves hungry to claw back from a recent stumble and the Mavericks looking to capitalize on their latest conquest. With the betting lines drawing a clear picture of expectations and the scoreboard prepped for potentially soaring past 221 points, fans are in for some serious thrill. So, as the ball gets rolling, will the Timberwolves howl in victory, or will the Mavericks ride high on home court advantage?

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 25, 2024 03:30PM EST

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas

Vegas Odds

	MIN ML	DAL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+175	-210	221.5	3.5/-3.5
Recent	+150	-175	221.0	5.5/-5.5
Difference	-25	+35	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

32W-21L

40.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

8W-2L

HOME

32W-20L

60.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
10/29/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	35	32	27	120	Over
10/29/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	34	25	23	32	114	Over
01/31/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	21	27	22	17	87	Under
01/31/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	24	28	31	38	121	Under
01/07/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	29	27	26	26	108	Over
01/07/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	30	30	31	24	115	Over
12/28/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	30	35	19	110	Over
12/28/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	37	24	37	20	118	Over
12/14/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	26	33	28	32	119	Under
12/14/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	30	30	22	19	101	Under
02/13/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	33	32	35	24	124	Over
02/13/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	23	31	28	39	121	Over
12/21/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	29	22	24	29	104	Under
12/21/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	31	21	22	25	99	Under
12/19/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	30	14	30	32	106	Over
12/19/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	21	36	37	22	116	Over
03/25/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	22	28	17	28	95	Under
03/25/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	26	35	28	27	116	Under
03/21/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	29	25	27	27	108	Under
03/21/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	23	37	26	24	110	Under
12/21/21	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	35	15	28	24	102	Under
12/21/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	34	27	27	26	114	Under
12/19/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	25	25	38	17	105	Under
12/19/21	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	27	29	30	25	111	Under

Timberwolves Vs Over/Under

Mavericks Vs Over/Under

Timberwolves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/21	@ GSW	103-113L	45	27	15	86
12/19	@ NYK	107-133L	37	29	13	89
12/15	vs SAS	106-92W	51	26	12	100
12/13	@ LAL	97-87W	48	18	13	87
12/08	vs GSW	106-114L	39	22	14	79
12/06	vs GSW	107-90W	48	32	17	88
12/04	vs LAC	108-80W	50	31	14	85
12/02	@ LAL	109-80W	43	31	15	81
11/29	@ LAC	93-92W	49	25	21	75
11/26	@ HOU	111-117L	52	21	17	98

Mavericks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/21	@ LAC	113-97W	43	25	11	88
12/19	@ LAC	95-118L	40	21	13	86
12/15	vs GSW	143-133W	47	36	15	87
12/10	vs OKL	104-118L	44	25	18	80
12/07	vs TOR	125-118W	52	21	18	81
12/05	vs WAS	137-101W	58	27	15	89
12/03	@ MEM	121-116W	49	24	25	81
12/01	vs POR	137-131W	33	33	13	87
11/30	vs UTA	106-94W	48	30	15	90
11/25	vs ATL	129-119W	51	24	17	94

Starting Lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Mike Conley PG	27.0	19.2	24.3	100%	24.7
Anthony Edwards SG	45.0	38.7	43.7	100%	44.1
Rudy Gobert C	34.0	27.6	30.5	100%	30.8
Jaden McDaniels SF	25.0	30.1	24.1	100%	24.5
Julius Randle PF	40.0	32.6	37.2	100%	36.5

Dallas Mavericks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luka Doncic PG	57.0	65.5	56.6	100%	56.9
Kyrie Irving SG	35.0	37.0	38.3	100%	38.6
Dereck Lively II C	24.0	28.9	25.4	50%	26.2
Klay Thompson SF	24.0	33.3	26.6	100%	27.0
PJ Washington PF	27.0	25.9	30.0	100%	30.0

Timberwolves Notable Injuries

Luka Garza (C): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.1reb, 0.2ast, 4.8 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 1.1
Terrence Shannon Jr. (SG/SF): Avg: 1.9pts, 0.3reb, 0.7ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 0.6
PJ Dozier (PF): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.7reb, 0.8ast, 4.1 minutes. Last game: 12/15/24. Impact: 0.8

Mavericks Notable Injuries

Dwight Powell (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 2.7reb, 1.1ast, 10.9 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 0.6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (SF/PF): Avg: 2.4pts, 1.7reb, 0.5ast, 7.2 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 1.1
Markieff Morris (PF/C): Avg: 2.2pts, 1.3reb, 0.5ast, 7.4 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 0.6
Kessler Edwards (SG/SF): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.7reb, 0.2ast, 4.6 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 0.2
Jazian Gortman (PG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.2reb, 0.2ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 0.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Donte DiVincenzo	MIN	Pts	8.5	11.7	+3.2	40%	40%	47%	47%	DAL	+0.4	#19
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	MIN	Pts	7.5	10.2	+2.7	60%	70%	67%	67%	DAL	+0.4	#19
Julius Randle	MIN	Reb	6.5	7.8	+1.3	40%	40%	40%	40%	DAL	+0.9	#26
Rudy Gobert	MIN	Reb	10.5	11.7	+1.2	40%	60%	60%	60%	DAL	-0.3	#13
Mike Conley	MIN	Ast	4.5	5.7	+1.2	60%	40%	47%	47%	DAL	-0.7	#8

View All Player Prop Projections

Timberwolves Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#11	#4	#27	#16	-0.2%
PF	#7	#16	#17	#11	-3.1%
PG	#15	#25	#15	#17	1.6%
SF	#6	#1	#5	#6	-8.3%
SG	#4	#12	#4	#4	-9.7%

Mavericks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#17	#13	#30	#18	1.5%
PF	#18	#26	#25	#22	4.1%
PG	#4	#9	#8	#7	-6.5%
SF	#7	#4	#21	#9	-3.5%
SG	#19	#21	#17	#16	0.3%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

109.7

117.5

Rebounds per Game

43.4

45.8

Assists per Game

25.8

25.6

Steals per Game

9.2

8.8

Blocks per Game

4.7

5.6

Shots per Game

86.6

88.5

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.8

13.0

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.9

56.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.2

36.9

Turnovers per Game

15.1

14.2

Fouls per Game

18.2

19.6

Recent Trends

Luka Doncic (PG) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 45.0 pts, 11.0 reb, 13.0 ast against GSW
Rob Dillingham (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.6% to 11.2, 16.6 min average previous 3 games.
Jaden Hardy (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.3% to 10.9, 19.2 min average previous 3 games.