Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game Breakdown

Get ready to howl and dig deep into the gold mines tonight as the undefeated Minnesota Timberwolves charge into Ball Arena, ready to clash with the Denver Nuggets in a fiery first-round NBA Playoff showdown. With the clock set to tip off at 7:00 PM EST, the stakes are sky-high. The Timberwolves, sitting pretty at the top of the Western Conference, are looking to keep their pristine record intact, while the Nuggets, just a half-game back, are itching to bounce back from a nail-biter loss. With the over/under tantalizingly poised at 208.5, tonight’s matchup promises to be anything but a snoozefest, especially after a series of first-round blowouts. So, as the Timberwolves aim to keep their pack leading the hunt and the Nuggets seek to unearth a victory, be prepared for a showdown that’s sure to be more gripping than a wolf’s bite and as explosive as a dynamite-laden mine!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: May 04, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: Ball Arena, Denver

Vegas Odds

	MIN ML	DEN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+165	-195	207.0	4.5/-4.5
Recent	+135	-160	208.5	4.5/-4.5
Difference	-30	+35	+1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

25W-15L

42.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

33W-8L

57.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
04/10/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	28	24	28	27	107	Over
04/10/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	23	34	33	116	Over
03/29/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	33	29	25	24	111	Over
03/29/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	17	21	34	98	Over
03/19/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	35	35	17	28	115	Over
03/19/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	28	27	29	28	112	Over
11/01/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	21	23	28	17	89	Under
11/01/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	28	35	26	21	110	Under
02/07/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	19	29	27	37	112	Over
02/07/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	49	30	31	36	146	Over
02/05/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	21	22	28	27	98	Over
02/05/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	32	31	31	34	128	Over
01/18/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	27	33	35	23	118	Over
01/18/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	25	33	34	122	Over
01/02/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	23	30	32	26	111	Over
01/02/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	23	36	31	34	124	Over
04/01/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	40	30	28	38	136	Over
04/01/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	35	30	29	36	130	Over
02/01/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	23	27	37	115	Over
02/01/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	30	39	31	30	130	Over
12/15/21	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	40	35	33	16	124	Over
12/15/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	32	29	27	19	107	Over
10/30/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	23	20	26	24	93	Under
10/30/21	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	32	15	26	18	91	Under

Timberwolves Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Timberwolves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ ATL	109-106W	44	29	14	79
04/10	vs DEN	107-116L	35	23	9	82
04/09	@ WAS	130-121W	44	30	8	90
04/07	vs LAL	127-117W	46	29	14	97
04/05	vs PHX	87-97L	44	23	18	85
04/03	@ TOR	133-85W	50	37	9	96
04/02	@ HOU	113-106W	39	29	17	77
03/31	@ CHI	101-109L	37	28	13	81
03/29	vs DEN	111-98W	39	28	7	75
03/27	@ DET	106-91W	40	28	12	82

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	vs SAS	120-121L	33	31	7	97
04/10	@ MIN	116-107W	44	31	13	83
04/09	vs UTA	111-95W	43	30	9	94
04/06	@ ATL	142-110W	47	38	15	88
04/04	vs LAC	100-102L	51	27	13	83
04/02	@ SAS	110-105W	52	28	8	98
03/31	@ CLE	130-101W	51	36	16	87
03/29	@ MIN	98-111L	46	29	12	88
03/27	@ PHX	97-104L	38	24	8	88
03/25	@ MEM	128-103W	50	38	15	90

Starting Lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Mike Conley PG	29.1	30.1	26.8	100%	27.2
Anthony Edwards SG	46.6	50.0	45.4	100%	44.9
Rudy Gobert C	39.2	39.2	38.1	100%	38.5
Jaden McDaniels SF	21.2	24.1	21.2	100%	21.6
Karl-Anthony Towns PF	39.7	35.0	38.6	100%	37.7

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
K. Caldwell-Pope SG	21.6	18.8	20.8	100%	21.1
Aaron Gordon PF	34.6	33.8	31.0	100%	31.4
Nikola Jokic C	66.7	65.0	61.7	100%	62.0
Jamal Murray PG	45.6	42.4	40.6	100%	41.0
Michael Porter Jr. SF	36.0	39.8	33.5	100%	33.9

Timberwolves Notable Injuries

T.J. Warren (SF/PF): Avg: 3.2pts, 1.8reb, 0.7ast, 10.0 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 1.0
Luka Garza (C): Avg: 3.6pts, 1.1reb, 0.2ast, 4.7 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.9
Leonard Miller (PF/C): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.9reb, 0.5ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.6
Josh Minott (SG): Avg: 1.5pts, 0.5reb, 0.2ast, 2.8 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.5
Wendell Moore Jr. (SG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.4reb, 0.2ast, 2.7 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.2

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Karl-Anthony Towns	MIN	Pts	18.5	21.3	+2.8	40%	40%	53%	53%	DEN	+31.0	#30
Aaron Gordon	DEN	Pts	13.5	15.6	+2.1	40%	40%	53%	53%	MIN	-2.8	#11
Nikola Jokic	DEN	Reb	12.5	13.8	+1.3	80%	70%	60%	60%	MIN	+0.4	#19
Rudy Gobert	MIN	Reb	12.5	13.4	+0.9	60%	70%	60%	60%	DEN	+3.2	#29
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DEN	Ast	1.5	2.5	+1.0	60%	50%	67%	67%	MIN	-0.2	#14
Jamal Murray	DEN	3Pt	2.5	2.7	+0.2	40%	50%	33%	33%	MIN	-0.3	#8

View All Player Prop Projections

Timberwolves Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#13	#19	#18	#17	3.9%
PF	#13	#5	#9	#4	-10.9%
PG	#2	#25	#9	#5	-36.6%
SF	#11	#15	#6	#12	-16.1%
SG	#17	#2	#14	#7	-10.1%

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#23	#29	#14	#24	9.1%
PF	#18	#3	#22	#10	-3.9%
PG	#14	#16	#11	#12	-24.1%
SF	#30	#28	#30	#30	57.4%
SG	#1	#5	#8	#2	-23.2%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

112.0

117.8

Rebounds per Game

42.6

43.6

Assists per Game

26.8

31.4

Steals per Game

9.4

8.0

Blocks per Game

6.6

7.0

Shots per Game

86.6

89.0

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.2

14.4

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.1

58.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.5

41.4

Turnovers per Game

12.6

11.4

Fouls per Game

19.2

18.8

Recent Trends

Anthony Edwards (SG/SF) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.8% to 31.8, 23.6 min average previous 3 games.
Christian Braun (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.7% to 11.6, 17.8 min average previous 3 games.
Naz Reid (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.1% to 18.1, 25.8 min average previous 3 games.