Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game Breakdown
Timberwolves
4W-0L
May 04, 2024
07:00PM EST
Odds: 208.5 o/u
Nuggets
4W-1L
Get ready to howl and dig deep into the gold mines tonight as the undefeated Minnesota Timberwolves charge into Ball Arena, ready to clash with the Denver Nuggets in a fiery first-round NBA Playoff showdown. With the clock set to tip off at 7:00 PM EST, the stakes are sky-high. The Timberwolves, sitting pretty at the top of the Western Conference, are looking to keep their pristine record intact, while the Nuggets, just a half-game back, are itching to bounce back from a nail-biter loss. With the over/under tantalizingly poised at 208.5, tonight’s matchup promises to be anything but a snoozefest, especially after a series of first-round blowouts. So, as the Timberwolves aim to keep their pack leading the hunt and the Nuggets seek to unearth a victory, be prepared for a showdown that’s sure to be more gripping than a wolf’s bite and as explosive as a dynamite-laden mine!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: May 04, 2024 07:00PM EST
Location: Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Odds
| MIN ML | DEN ML | Over/Under | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | +165 | -195 | 207.0 | 4.5/-4.5 |
| Recent | +135 | -160 | 208.5 | 4.5/-4.5 |
| Difference | -30 | +35 | +1.5 | – |
Team Performance
42.6% Win Probability
57.4% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
| Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/24 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 28 | 24 | 28 | 27 | 00 | 107 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 26 | 23 | 34 | 33 | 00 | 116 | |||
| 03/29/24 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 33 | 29 | 25 | 24 | 00 | 111 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 26 | 17 | 21 | 34 | 00 | 98 | |||
| 03/19/24 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 35 | 35 | 17 | 28 | 00 | 115 | Over | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 28 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 00 | 112 | |||
| 11/01/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 21 | 23 | 28 | 17 | 00 | 89 | Under | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 28 | 35 | 26 | 21 | 00 | 110 | |||
| 02/07/23 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 19 | 29 | 27 | 37 | 00 | 112 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 49 | 30 | 31 | 36 | 00 | 146 | |||
| 02/05/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 21 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 00 | 98 | Over | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 32 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 00 | 128 | |||
| 01/18/23 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 27 | 33 | 35 | 23 | 00 | 118 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 30 | 25 | 33 | 34 | 00 | 122 | |||
| 01/02/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 23 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 00 | 111 | Over | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 23 | 36 | 31 | 34 | 00 | 124 | |||
| 04/01/22 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 40 | 30 | 28 | 38 | 00 | 136 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 35 | 30 | 29 | 36 | 00 | 130 | |||
| 02/01/22 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 28 | 23 | 27 | 37 | 00 | 115 | Over | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 30 | 39 | 31 | 30 | 00 | 130 | |||
| 12/15/21 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 40 | 35 | 33 | 16 | 00 | 124 | Over | |
| Denver Nuggets DEN | 32 | 29 | 27 | 19 | 00 | 107 | |||
| 10/30/21 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 23 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 00 | 93 | Under | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 32 | 15 | 26 | 18 | 00 | 91 |
Timberwolves Vs Over/Under
Nuggets Vs Over/Under
Timberwolves Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | @ ATL | 109-106W | 44 | 29 | 14 | 79 |
| 04/10 | vs DEN | 107-116L | 35 | 23 | 9 | 82 |
| 04/09 | @ WAS | 130-121W | 44 | 30 | 8 | 90 |
| 04/07 | vs LAL | 127-117W | 46 | 29 | 14 | 97 |
| 04/05 | vs PHX | 87-97L | 44 | 23 | 18 | 85 |
| 04/03 | @ TOR | 133-85W | 50 | 37 | 9 | 96 |
| 04/02 | @ HOU | 113-106W | 39 | 29 | 17 | 77 |
| 03/31 | @ CHI | 101-109L | 37 | 28 | 13 | 81 |
| 03/29 | vs DEN | 111-98W | 39 | 28 | 7 | 75 |
| 03/27 | @ DET | 106-91W | 40 | 28 | 12 | 82 |
Nuggets Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | vs SAS | 120-121L | 33 | 31 | 7 | 97 |
| 04/10 | @ MIN | 116-107W | 44 | 31 | 13 | 83 |
| 04/09 | vs UTA | 111-95W | 43 | 30 | 9 | 94 |
| 04/06 | @ ATL | 142-110W | 47 | 38 | 15 | 88 |
| 04/04 | vs LAC | 100-102L | 51 | 27 | 13 | 83 |
| 04/02 | @ SAS | 110-105W | 52 | 28 | 8 | 98 |
| 03/31 | @ CLE | 130-101W | 51 | 36 | 16 | 87 |
| 03/29 | @ MIN | 98-111L | 46 | 29 | 12 | 88 |
| 03/27 | @ PHX | 97-104L | 38 | 24 | 8 | 88 |
| 03/25 | @ MEM | 128-103W | 50 | 38 | 15 | 90 |
Starting Lineups
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mike Conley
PG
|
29.1 | 30.1 | 26.8 | 100% | 27.2 |
| 46.6 | 50.0 | 45.4 | 100% | 44.9 | |
| 39.2 | 39.2 | 38.1 | 100% | 38.5 | |
| 21.2 | 24.1 | 21.2 | 100% | 21.6 | |
| 39.7 | 35.0 | 38.6 | 100% | 37.7 |
| Denver Nuggets | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.6 | 18.8 | 20.8 | 100% | 21.1 | |
|
Aaron Gordon
PF
|
34.6 | 33.8 | 31.0 | 100% | 31.4 |
| 66.7 | 65.0 | 61.7 | 100% | 62.0 | |
|
Jamal Murray
PG
|
45.6 | 42.4 | 40.6 | 100% | 41.0 |
| 36.0 | 39.8 | 33.5 | 100% | 33.9 |
Timberwolves Notable Injuries
- T.J. Warren (SF/PF): Avg: 3.2pts, 1.8reb, 0.7ast, 10.0 minutes. Last game: 04/23/24. Impact: 1.0
- Luka Garza (C): Avg: 3.6pts, 1.1reb, 0.2ast, 4.7 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.9
- Leonard Miller (PF/C): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.9reb, 0.5ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.6
- Josh Minott (SG): Avg: 1.5pts, 0.5reb, 0.2ast, 2.8 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.5
- Wendell Moore Jr. (SG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.4reb, 0.2ast, 2.7 minutes. Last game: 04/26/24. Impact: 0.2
Nuggets Notable Injuries
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
| Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | MIN | Pts | 18.5 | 21.3 | +2.8 | 40% | 40% | 53% | 53% | DEN | +31.0 | #30 |
| Aaron Gordon | DEN | Pts | 13.5 | 15.6 | +2.1 | 40% | 40% | 53% | 53% | MIN | -2.8 | #11 |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | Reb | 12.5 | 13.8 | +1.3 | 80% | 70% | 60% | 60% | MIN | +0.4 | #19 |
| Rudy Gobert | MIN | Reb | 12.5 | 13.4 | +0.9 | 60% | 70% | 60% | 60% | DEN | +3.2 | #29 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | DEN | Ast | 1.5 | 2.5 | +1.0 | 60% | 50% | 67% | 67% | MIN | -0.2 | #14 |
| Jamal Murray | DEN | 3Pt | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | 40% | 50% | 33% | 33% | MIN | -0.3 | #8 |
Timberwolves Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #13 | #19 | #18 | #17 | 3.9% |
| PF | #13 | #5 | #9 | #4 | -10.9% |
| PG | #2 | #25 | #9 | #5 | -36.6% |
| SF | #11 | #15 | #6 | #12 | -16.1% |
| SG | #17 | #2 | #14 | #7 | -10.1% |
Nuggets Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #23 | #29 | #14 | #24 | 9.1% |
| PF | #18 | #3 | #22 | #10 | -3.9% |
| PG | #14 | #16 | #11 | #12 | -24.1% |
| SF | #30 | #28 | #30 | #30 | 57.4% |
| SG | #1 | #5 | #8 | #2 | -23.2% |
Team Comparison
Recent Trends
- Anthony Edwards (SG/SF) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.8% to 31.8, 23.6 min average previous 3 games.
- Christian Braun (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.7% to 11.6, 17.8 min average previous 3 games.
- Naz Reid (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.1% to 18.1, 25.8 min average previous 3 games.
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