Timberwolves vs Rockets Game Breakdown

Get ready, hoops fans, because tonight’s NBA Playoff showdown at the Toyota Center is set to be a sizzler! The Minnesota Timberwolves, holding a decent 15-14 record, are gearing up to challenge the high-flying 21-9 Houston Rockets in what promises to be a pivotal first-round game. After a series of playoff blowouts, we’re all itching for a nail-biter, and with the game tipping off at 9 PM EST, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Both teams are coming off convincing wins, with the Rockets recently blasting off past New Orleans and the Timberwolves clawing their way past Dallas. With the betting lines tight and the over/under hovering around 213, tonight’s game is anyone’s guess. So, will the Rockets continue their launch to success, or will the Timberwolves start howling at the moon in victory? Tune in to find out!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 27, 2024 09:00PM EST

Location: Toyota Center, Houston

Vegas Odds

	MIN ML	HOU ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-105	-115	213.5	1.0/-1.0
Recent	-115	-115	213.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-10	0	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

33W-21L

53.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

36W-16L

46.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
11/26/24	Houston Rockets HOU	32	25	27	18	150	117	Over
11/26/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	26	21	31	24	90	111	Over
04/02/24	Houston Rockets HOU	23	22	27	34	00	106	Over
04/02/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	16	38	27	32	00	113	Over
02/04/24	Houston Rockets HOU	23	21	20	26	00	90	Under
02/04/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	31	17	32	31	00	111	Under
01/05/24	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	32	24	28	38	00	122	Over
01/05/24	Houston Rockets HOU	24	22	26	23	00	95	Over
01/23/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	26	30	25	33	00	114	Over
01/23/23	Houston Rockets HOU	31	25	34	29	00	119	Over
01/21/23	Houston Rockets HOU	26	26	32	20	00	104	Over
01/21/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	26	24	37	26	00	113	Over
01/08/23	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	24	34	19	27	00	104	Under
01/08/23	Houston Rockets HOU	33	29	19	15	00	96	Under
11/05/22	Houston Rockets HOU	34	15	34	34	00	117	Over
11/05/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	40	28	35	26	00	129	Over
04/03/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	42	38	36	23	00	139	Over
04/03/22	Houston Rockets HOU	32	36	24	40	00	132	Over
01/09/22	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	36	39	36	30	00	141	Over
01/09/22	Houston Rockets HOU	26	28	34	35	00	123	Over
10/20/21	Houston Rockets HOU	21	24	26	35	00	106	Over
10/20/21	Minnesota Timberwolves MIN	32	40	27	25	00	124	Over

Timberwolves Vs Over/Under

Rockets Vs Over/Under

Timberwolves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/25	vs DAL	105-99W	46	23	10	86
12/21	@ GSW	103-113L	45	27	15	86
12/19	@ NYK	107-133L	37	29	13	89
12/15	vs SAS	106-92W	51	26	12	100
12/13	@ LAL	97-87W	48	18	13	87
12/08	vs GSW	106-114L	39	22	14	79
12/06	vs GSW	107-90W	48	32	17	88
12/04	vs LAC	108-80W	50	31	14	85
12/02	@ LAL	109-80W	43	31	15	81
11/29	@ LAC	93-92W	49	25	21	75

Rockets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/26	vs NOP	128-111W	54	19	15	97
12/22	vs TOR	114-110W	53	18	21	89
12/19	@ NOP	133-113W	42	34	11	87
12/14	vs OKL	96-111L	49	17	16	96
12/11	@ GSW	91-90W	36	23	16	83
12/08	vs LAC	117-106W	50	23	15	82
12/05	vs GSW	93-99L	45	20	8	93
12/03	vs SAC	111-120L	53	14	15	93
12/01	@ OKL	119-116W	51	20	10	92
11/26	vs MIN	117-111W	44	31	10	99

Starting Lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Mike Conley PG	25.0	18.6	23.7	100%	24.2
Anthony Edwards SG	45.0	39.9	43.9	100%	44.2
Rudy Gobert C	35.0	29.2	30.6	100%	30.9
Jaden McDaniels SF	25.0	29.9	23.7	100%	24.0
Julius Randle PF	40.0	34.5	37.1	100%	36.4

Houston Rockets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jalen Green SG	31.0	33.9	31.5	100%	31.9
Alperen Sengun C	44.0	41.7	44.0	100%	44.3
Jabari Smith Jr. PF	28.0	26.1	25.3	100%	25.7
Fred VanVleet PG	36.0	30.9	37.0	100%	37.3

Timberwolves Notable Injuries

Luka Garza (C): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.1reb, 0.2ast, 4.8 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 1.1
Terrence Shannon Jr. (SG/SF): Avg: 1.9pts, 0.3reb, 0.7ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 0.6
PJ Dozier (PF): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.7reb, 0.8ast, 4.1 minutes. Last game: 12/15/24. Impact: 0.8

Rockets Notable Injuries

Dillon Brooks (SG/SF): Avg: 13.2pts, 3.5reb, 1.6ast, 31.1 minutes. Last game: 12/22/24. Impact: 4.9
Jeff Green (PF/C): Avg: 6.3pts, 2.2reb, 0.9ast, 15.9 minutes. Last game: 12/26/24. Impact: 1.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jaden McDaniels	MIN	Pts	8.5	12.5	+4.0	60%	70%	80%	80%	HOU	-2.6	#2
Donte DiVincenzo	MIN	Pts	8.5	11.7	+3.2	60%	50%	53%	53%	HOU	-0.8	#10
Rudy Gobert	MIN	Reb	10.5	12.0	+1.5	40%	50%	60%	60%	HOU	+1.4	#29
Jabari Smith Jr.	HOU	Reb	6.5	7.5	+1.0	20%	60%	60%	60%	MIN	-0.6	#9
Fred VanVleet	HOU	Ast	5.5	7.0	+1.5	60%	40%	53%	53%	MIN	-0.5	#11
Mike Conley	MIN	Ast	4.5	5.3	+0.8	60%	40%	40%	40%	HOU	-0.2	#15
Naz Reid	MIN	3Pt	1.5	1.9	+0.4	40%	30%	33%	33%	HOU	-0.7	#1

View All Player Prop Projections

Timberwolves Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#11	#6	#26	#17	1.3%
PF	#1	#9	#12	#5	-8.3%
PG	#19	#26	#11	#20	2.0%
SF	#6	#1	#5	#5	-9.2%
SG	#9	#15	#2	#5	-7.8%

Rockets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#4	#29	#1	#9	-3.8%
PF	#2	#1	#2	#1	-17.8%
PG	#21	#28	#15	#25	5.4%
SF	#3	#27	#1	#3	-13.1%
SG	#10	#14	#3	#9	-5.8%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

109.4

113.0

Rebounds per Game

43.6

49.6

Assists per Game

25.5

22.6

Steals per Game

9.2

8.7

Blocks per Game

4.6

5.6

Shots per Game

86.8

93.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.8

11.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.6

52.1

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.4

32.9

Turnovers per Game

15.0

13.1

Fouls per Game

18.1

19.6

Recent Trends

Rob Dillingham (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.6% to 11.2, 16.6 min average previous 3 games.
Donte DiVincenzo (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.9% to 25.2, 19.3 min average previous 3 games.
Aaron Holiday (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.6% to 10.1, 14.7 min average previous 3 games.