Pelicans vs Nuggets Game Breakdown

Get ready to rumble as the underdog New Orleans Pelicans swoop into the Mile High City, hoping to shake their feathers and cause an upset against the towering Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena tonight! With the clock set for a 10:00 PM EST showdown, the stage is set for an explosive clash. The Pelicans, looking to claw back some dignity in the Western conference, face a tough opponent in the Nuggets, who have been crushing dreams and racking up wins. As we dive into this first-round playoff game, where the stakes are as high as the over/under, fans are buzzing with anticipation. Will the Pelicans find gold in Denver, or will the Nuggets continue to soar in their quest for dominance? Tonight, it’s a battle of flight versus might, so let’s see which team truly takes it to new heights!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 05, 2025 10:00PM EST

Location: Ball Arena, Denver

Vegas Odds

	NOP ML	DEN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+360	-500	239.5	10.0/-10.0
Recent	+370	-510	238.0	10.5/-10.5
Difference	+10	-10	-1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

31W-33L

21.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

45W-16L

78.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
02/03/25	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	23	27	35	28	00	113	Push
02/03/25	Denver Nuggets DEN	33	35	25	32	00	125	Push
12/22/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	31	22	38	130	132	Over
12/22/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	29	38	26	26	100	129	Over
11/15/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	22	32	18	22	00	94	Under
11/15/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	32	27	19	23	00	101	Under
01/12/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	25	26	29	33	00	113	Push
01/12/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	37	29	34	25	00	125	Push
11/17/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	25	33	24	00	110	Under
11/17/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	36	33	26	20	00	115	Under
11/06/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	27	44	21	24	00	116	Over
11/06/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	25	34	40	35	00	134	Over
03/30/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	21	29	32	25	00	107	Under
03/30/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	17	23	30	18	00	88	Under
01/31/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	35	25	24	29	00	113	Under
01/31/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	31	26	36	29	00	122	Under
01/24/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	35	20	16	00	99	Under
01/24/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	24	23	27	24	00	98	Under
12/04/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	31	29	21	25	00	106	Under
12/04/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	27	32	28	34	00	121	Under
03/06/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	19	38	37	30	60	130	Over
03/06/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	35	27	22	40	140	138	Over
02/04/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	27	24	31	31	00	113	Under
02/04/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	29	23	30	23	00	105	Under
01/28/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	24	36	30	00	116	Under
01/28/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	17	31	30	27	00	105	Under
12/08/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	35	29	16	25	150	120	Under
12/08/21	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	33	24	20	28	90	114	Under

Pelicans Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Pelicans Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/03	vs DEN	113-125L	41	27	10	88
01/31	@ BOS	116-118L	48	16	18	90
01/29	@ DAL	136-137L	36	31	8	96
01/27	vs TOR	104-113L	46	21	12	89
01/24	vs MEM	126-139L	35	30	12	83
01/20	@ UTA	123-119W	45	28	12	92
01/17	@ UTA	136-123W	56	34	13	100
01/15	@ DAL	119-116W	49	24	10	97
01/14	vs CHI	119-113W	46	32	10	96
01/12	vs BOS	119-120L	42	24	9	86

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/03	@ NOP	125-113W	46	28	5	92
02/01	vs CHA	107-104W	43	29	11	88
01/31	vs PHI	137-134W	35	39	19	82
01/29	vs NYK	112-122L	47	21	14	84
01/27	vs CHI	121-129L	42	36	14	100
01/23	@ SAC	132-123W	56	30	10	101
01/21	@ PHI	144-109W	51	39	13	85
01/19	vs ORL	113-100W	57	24	20	77
01/17	vs MIA	133-113W	41	35	5	92
01/15	@ HOU	108-128L	36	22	18	75

Starting Lineups

New Orleans Pelicans	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Javonte Green SG	19.0	16.9	15.1	43%	19.0
CJ McCollum PG	39.0	36.4	36.2	100%	36.5
Yves Missi C	23.0	20.0	25.4	100%	24.4
Trey Murphy III SF	41.0	47.1	39.2	93%	40.2
Zion Williamson PF	45.0	45.7	43.3	100%	43.8

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Christian Braun SG	31.0	33.1	25.2	93%	25.7
Aaron Gordon PF	25.0	16.4	25.5	73%	28.5
Nikola Jokic C	61.0	63.3	66.0	100%	66.4
Jamal Murray PG	40.0	44.6	38.7	100%	39.1
Michael Porter Jr. SF	30.0	33.5	31.2	100%	31.6

Pelicans Notable Injuries

Dejounte Murray (PG): Avg: 21.0pts, 5.7reb, 6.7ast, 34.9 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 6.6

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Russell Westbrook (PG): Avg: 11.6pts, 5.0reb, 5.0ast, 24.1 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 5.1
Peyton Watson (SF/PF): Avg: 6.8pts, 3.2reb, 1.2ast, 19.8 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 2.8
PJ Hall (C): Avg: 1.3pts, 0.9reb, 0.3ast, 2.6 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 0.6
Spencer Jones (SG/SF): Avg: 0.7pts, 0.0reb, 0.0ast, 1.7 minutes. Last game: 02/03/25. Impact: 0.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
CJ McCollum	NOP	Pts	20.5	21.7	+1.2	80%	60%	67%	67%	DEN	+3.3	#30
Zion Williamson	NOP	Pts	23.5	24.6	+1.1	60%	50%	53%	53%	DEN	-0.1	#14
Trey Murphy III	NOP	Reb	4.5	6.4	+1.9	80%	80%	60%	60%	DEN	-1.0	#2
Christian Braun	DEN	Ast	2.5	2.6	+0.1	40%	20%	13%	13%	NOP	+0.2	#23

View All Player Prop Projections

Pelicans Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#21	#30	#20	#28	8.8%
PF	#30	#20	#18	#28	8.7%
PG	#13	#27	#23	#24	3.1%
SF	#23	#6	#22	#20	3.1%
SG	#23	#12	#23	#23	3.1%

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#17	#15	#29	#23	6.1%
PF	#14	#5	#22	#13	-0.9%
PG	#3	#9	#28	#21	1.2%
SF	#12	#2	#21	#13	-1.7%
SG	#30	#2	#19	#25	4.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

115.7

123.0

Rebounds per Game

42.5

46.1

Assists per Game

26.6

31.2

Steals per Game

9.7

8.2

Blocks per Game

5.7

5.1

Shots per Game

91.4

89.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

11.4

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.2

59.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.7

37.2

Turnovers per Game

13.0

13.5

Fouls per Game

19.5

17.1

Recent Trends

Trey Murphy III (SG/SF) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 3 consecutive games.
Nikola Jokic (C) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 27.0 pts, 14.0 reb, 10.0 ast against NOP
Jose Alvarado (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.0% to 23.7, 17.7 min average previous 3 games.
Brandon Boston Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 65.7% to 21.9, 13.2 min average previous 3 games.
Aaron Gordon (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.8% to 30.8, 20.4 min average previous 3 games.
Daniel Theis (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.0% to 16.0, 28.0 min average previous 3 games.