Pelicans vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and dive into the playoff fever as the underdog New Orleans Pelicans swoop into the sizzling Kaseya Center to clash with the Miami Heat tonight at 08:30PM EST! With the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs mostly serving up one-sided affairs, we’re all in for a treat hoping this matchup brings the spice back to the court. The Heat, fresh off a nail-biting win, are looking to keep their momentum, while the Pelicans, despite a recent stumble, are hungry to ruffle some feathers. With the stakes sky-high and the scoreboard ready to light up past 220, tonight’s game promises to be anything but icy. So, will the Heat continue to blaze a trail, or will the Pelicans take flight in an upset? It’s a perfect setup for a showdown where feathers might just get a little singed!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 01, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	NOP ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+215	-260	223.0	9.0/-9.0
Recent	+150	-200	220.5	8.5/-8.5
Difference	-65	+60	-2.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

0W-10L

AWAY

29W-28L

40.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

29W-23L

60.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/22/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	21	25	30	35	111	Under
03/22/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	22	24	22	88	Under
02/23/24	Miami Heat MIA	31	27	26	22	106	Under
02/23/24	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	24	34	22	15	95	Under
01/22/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	32	15	25	24	96	Under
01/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	23	18	28	31	100	Under
01/18/23	Miami Heat MIA	36	34	28	26	124	Over
01/18/23	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	23	28	25	22	98	Over
02/10/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	29	27	29	112	Under
02/10/22	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	24	31	18	24	97	Under
11/17/21	New Orleans Pelicans NOP	34	18	18	28	98	Under
11/17/21	Miami Heat MIA	21	26	34	32	113	Under

Pelicans Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Pelicans Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/30	@ LAC	113-116L	35	30	16	82
12/27	@ MEM	124-132L	45	30	17	96
12/26	@ HOU	111-128L	44	29	13	99
12/22	@ DEN	129-132L	43	37	13	108
12/21	@ NYK	93-104L	45	23	19	83
12/19	vs HOU	113-133L	37	25	12	92
12/15	vs IND	104-119L	49	18	18	97
12/12	@ SAC	109-111L	43	22	17	83
12/08	vs SAS	116-121L	43	26	8	99
12/07	@ OKL	109-119L	35	25	18	79

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90
12/02	vs BOS	89-108L	44	24	10	87

Starting Lineups

New Orleans Pelicans	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Herbert Jones SF	29.0	28.1	24.8	100%	25.2
CJ McCollum SG	37.0	38.7	38.5	100%	38.9
Yves Missi C	33.0	29.4	25.7	80%	26.6
Trey Murphy III PF	39.0	39.8	33.5	93%	34.2
Dejounte Murray PG	45.0	45.0	45.1	100%	45.4

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	46.0	33.4	38.5	100%	38.9
Jimmy Butler SG	34.0	28.4	33.5	100%	33.9
Tyler Herro PG	41.0	44.5	39.7	100%	40.0
Haywood Highsmith PF	18.0	17.1	16.3	60%	17.9
Duncan Robinson SF	21.0	20.2	16.2	50%	19.4

Pelicans Notable Injuries

Trey Jemison (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 4.4reb, 0.8ast, 18.3 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 1.4
Antonio Reeves (SG/SF): Avg: 4.8pts, 1.2reb, 0.7ast, 10.0 minutes. Last game: 12/26/24. Impact: 1.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Terry Rozier (PG/SG): Avg: 17.6pts, 4.0reb, 4.7ast, 31.7 minutes. Last game: 12/29/24. Impact: 3.7
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 6.2pts, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 18.8 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Dejounte Murray	NOP	Pts	16.5	22.0	+5.5	40%	60%	53%	53%	MIA	-0.9	#9
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	20.5	+4.0	60%	50%	40%	40%	NOP	+2.7	#28
Trey Murphy III	NOP	Reb	5.5	6.3	+0.8	40%	40%	40%	40%	MIA	-0.1	#12
Herbert Jones	NOP	Reb	3.5	4.3	+0.8	100%	80%	67%	67%	MIA	0.0	#17

View All Player Prop Projections

Pelicans Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#25	#30	#25	#28	9.0%
PF	#28	#26	#9	#26	6.9%
PG	#25	#24	#26	#28	8.9%
SF	#23	#5	#3	#12	-1.6%
SG	#19	#25	#21	#24	5.3%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#24	#24	#11	-2.3%
PF	#4	#19	#27	#14	-2.7%
PG	#9	#17	#21	#11	-2.0%
SF	#25	#17	#13	#19	1.6%
SG	#8	#12	#11	#8	-5.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.0

111.8

Rebounds per Game

42.9

43.1

Assists per Game

24.3

25.3

Steals per Game

9.9

9.2

Blocks per Game

5.1

3.2

Shots per Game

90.4

87.3

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.4

14.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

50.3

52.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

33.5

37.4

Turnovers per Game

14.8

12.4

Fouls per Game

19.2

17.2

Recent Trends

CJ McCollum (PG/SG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Jamal Cain (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 41.7% to 11.1, 19.1 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Jordan Hawkins (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.8% to 16.0, 23.9 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 104.4% to 33.6, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.6% to 17.9, 12.8 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.