Knicks vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Tue, Apr 2nd 2024

Get ready to feel the heat, basketball fans, as the fiery New York Knicks are barreling down to the Kaseya Center, ready to scorch the Miami Heat on their home turf. The Knicks, hanging 14.5 games back in the Eastern conference, are looking to ignite a comeback, while the Heat, sitting pretty just 2.5 games back, aim to extinguish their hopes. With a tip-off set for 07:30PM EST, you can bet the over/under of 206.0 is causing some serious sweat. The Knicks are coming in hot with a line at 2.5, while the Heat are cooling things down at -2.5. The Heat are still sizzling from their recent 119-107 victory against WAS, while the Knicks are smoldering from a nail-biting 112-113 loss against OKL. As the Knicks and Heat prepare to clash, remember: in this game, it’s not just about surviving the heat, it’s about catching fire!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 02, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	NYK ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+120	-140	206.5	2.5/-2.5
Recent	+120	-140	206.0	3.0/-3.0
Difference	0	0	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

20W-16L

45.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

19W-17L

54.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/27/24	Miami Heat MIA	30	21	35	23	109	Over
01/27/24	New York Knicks NYK	27	34	28	36	125	Over
11/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	22	37	11	98	Under
11/24/23	New York Knicks NYK	25	26	20	29	100	Under
03/29/23	Miami Heat MIA	23	23	30	16	92	Under
03/29/23	New York Knicks NYK	19	29	28	25	101	Under
03/22/23	New York Knicks NYK	32	29	25	34	120	Over
03/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	33	28	35	127	Over
03/03/23	New York Knicks NYK	37	34	25	26	122	Over
03/03/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	25	32	32	120	Over
02/02/23	Miami Heat MIA	22	26	24	32	104	Over
02/02/23	New York Knicks NYK	28	23	26	29	106	Over
03/25/22	New York Knicks NYK	25	24	24	38	111	Over
03/25/22	Miami Heat MIA	32	26	30	15	103	Over
02/25/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	35	25	25	115	Over
02/25/22	New York Knicks NYK	32	23	30	15	100	Over
01/26/22	New York Knicks NYK	16	30	21	29	96	Push
01/26/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	29	33	18	110	Push

Knicks Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Knicks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/31	@ OKL	112-113L	46	24	10	92
03/29	vs SAS	126-132L	50	24	11	111
03/27	vs TOR	145-101W	42	37	11	94
03/25	@ DET	124-99W	52	30	13	89
03/23	@ BRO	105-93W	47	25	9	97
03/21	vs DEN	100-113L	31	28	9	79
03/18	vs GSW	119-112W	44	29	10	91
03/16	vs SAC	98-91W	52	19	14	87
03/14	vs POR	105-93W	50	16	12	87
03/12	@ PHI	106-79W	51	32	12	79

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92
03/24	@ CLE	121-84W	44	29	9	83
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81

Starting Lineups

New York Knicks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jalen Brunson PG	45.6	49.0	46.5	100%	44.9
Donte DiVincenzo SF	34.1	42.4	35.9	100%	35.6
Josh Hart PF	38.0	38.2	36.3	93%	37.3
Isaiah Hartenstein C	27.6	32.0	27.8	100%	27.7
Miles McBride SG	28.7	34.6	20.3	33%	33.7

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	43.2	45.2	39.1	100%	38.6
Jimmy Butler SF	41.4	34.1	36.9	100%	35.6
Nikola Jovic PF	17.0	20.8	16.0	90%	17.9
Duncan Robinson SG	22.3	25.1	21.4	53%	26.9
Terry Rozier PG	31.8	32.2	30.5	93%	31.3

Knicks Notable Injuries

Shake Milton (PG): Avg: 4.4pts, 1.6reb, 1.3ast, 12.1 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 1.5
Mamadi Diakite (PF/C): Avg: 2.4pts, 0.8reb, 0.4ast, 4.8 minutes. Last game: 03/27/24. Impact: 1.3
DaQuan Jeffries (SG/SF): Avg: 0.9pts, 0.3reb, 0.3ast, 2.8 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.3

Heat Notable Injuries

Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.4pts, 1.6reb, 0.5ast, 11.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.1
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.0ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.7
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.8pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.6
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.2

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	19.5	22.5	+3.0	20%	20%	47%	47%	NYK	+3.2	#26
Miles McBride	NYK	Pts	13.5	15.8	+2.3	60%	40%	47%	47%	MIA	-1.0	#10
Donte DiVincenzo	NYK	Reb	3.5	4.2	+0.7	80%	60%	73%	73%	MIA	-3.0	#3

View All Player Prop Projections

Knicks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#14	#13	#24	#9	-3.2%
PF	#1	#1	#2	#1	-17.8%
PG	#19	#16	#17	#19	3.2%
SF	#26	#22	#3	#24	9.1%
SG	#1	#16	#4	#2	-11.6%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#26	#9	#3	-14.9%
PF	#2	#20	#1	#2	-14.1%
PG	#21	#15	#24	#17	1.5%
SF	#30	#3	#17	#28	17.4%
SG	#10	#20	#25	#13	-2.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

108.4

106.7

Rebounds per Game

46.1

42.5

Assists per Game

25.9

24.7

Steals per Game

7.7

8.4

Blocks per Game

5.2

3.6

Shots per Game

89.4

86.9

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.0

12.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.6

52.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.6

Turnovers per Game

11.8

9.4

Fouls per Game

17.2

15.1

Recent Trends

Alec Burks (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.5% to 16.1, 12.3 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 68.7% to 29.0, 17.2 min average previous 3 games.
Mitchell Robinson (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.6% to 16.9, 30.0 min average previous 3 games.