Thunder vs Mavericks Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at the American Airlines Center tonight as the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder roll into Dallas to face the gritty Mavericks in what promises to be a pivotal first-round NBA playoff clash. With the Thunder sitting pretty atop the Western conference and the Mavericks looking to claw their way up from a mid-table melee, this 09:30 PM EST tipoff is set to light up the scoreboard. The stakes are sky-high and the betting lines are buzzing, hinting at a nail-biter with the Thunder favored to thunder past, but don’t count out the Mavericks just yet—they’re hungry to lasso a win at home after a recent stumble. So, as the Thunder aims to strike and the Mavericks gear up to corral their rivals, tonight’s game is shaping up to be a true clash of the titans where only the stormiest of plays will reign supreme!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 17, 2025 09:30PM EST

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas

Vegas Odds

	OKL ML	DAL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-250	+210	222.0	-6.5/6.5
Recent	-300	+250	223.0	-8.5/8.5
Difference	-50	+40	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

37W-22L

75.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

2W-8L

HOME

34W-24L

25.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
12/10/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	24	30	19	31	00	104	Under
12/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	32	25	33	28	00	118	Under
11/17/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	39	27	31	24	00	121	Over
11/17/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	34	24	34	27	00	119	Over
04/14/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	22	19	16	29	00	86	Under
04/14/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	39	43	26	27	00	135	Under
03/14/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	27	36	24	32	00	119	Over
03/14/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	32	30	31	00	126	Over
02/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	30	32	27	22	00	111	Over
02/10/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	47	24	39	36	00	146	Over
12/02/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	39	35	19	00	126	Over
12/02/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	27	29	28	36	00	120	Over
01/08/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	34	21	28	26	00	109	Over
01/08/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	36	27	24	00	120	Over
12/12/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	24	38	24	00	114	Over
12/12/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	23	43	31	24	00	121	Over
10/29/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	19	26	27	180	117	Over
10/29/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	25	26	20	28	120	111	Over
02/02/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	30	21	34	18	170	120	Over
02/02/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	28	23	25	27	110	114	Over
01/17/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	24	18	30	30	00	102	Under
01/17/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	33	20	24	27	00	104	Under
01/02/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	25	22	22	00	95	Under
01/02/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	22	17	25	22	00	86	Under
12/12/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	28	28	24	23	00	103	Under
12/12/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	19	25	13	00	84	Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Mavericks Vs Over/Under

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/16	@ CLE	134-114W	39	25	6	105
01/14	vs PHI	118-102W	38	32	17	81
01/12	vs WAS	136-95W	56	26	13	95
01/10	vs NYK	126-101W	46	20	15	89
01/08	vs CLE	122-129L	38	35	13	90
01/03	@ NYK	117-107W	41	27	13	84
01/02	@ LAC	116-98W	35	29	9	86
12/31	@ MIN	113-105W	37	25	9	89
12/29	@ MEM	130-106W	45	35	10	103
12/28	vs CHA	106-94W	49	29	15	88

Mavericks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/15	vs NOP	116-119L	45	27	15	90
01/14	@ DEN	99-118L	30	27	12	90
01/12	@ DEN	101-112L	37	27	12	85
01/09	@ POR	117-111W	53	26	14	88
01/07	@ LAL	118-97W	44	29	10	86
01/06	vs MEM	104-119L	50	25	15	98
01/03	@ CLE	122-134L	53	29	12	100
01/01	vs HOU	99-110L	38	19	20	75
12/30	vs SAC	100-110L	36	17	17	76
12/28	vs POR	122-126L	40	20	13	89

Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SF	22.0	21.2	22.8	100%	23.2
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	54.0	52.0	52.6	100%	52.9
Cason Wallace SG	23.0	23.6	19.5	73%	20.9
Jalen Williams PF	41.0	41.0	41.3	100%	41.6
Jaylin Williams C GTD	24.0	17.6	14.9	7%	22.9

Dallas Mavericks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Daniel Gafford C	36.0	21.3	23.8	27%	31.6
Kyrie Irving PG	42.0	41.7	40.0	100%	40.4
Naji Marshall SF	24.0	23.4	20.1	43%	21.1
Klay Thompson SG	25.0	20.6	23.9	100%	24.2
PJ Washington PF	35.0	33.5	30.0	100%	30.0

Thunder Notable Injuries

Isaiah Hartenstein (C): Avg: 8.6pts, 9.0reb, 3.0ast, 26.6 minutes. Last game: 01/14/25. Impact: 5.9
Alex Caruso GTD (PG/SF): Avg: 9.1pts, 3.6reb, 3.2ast, 26.6 minutes. Last game: 01/16/25. Impact: 3.2
Ajay Mitchell (PG): Avg: 6.5pts, 1.8reb, 1.8ast, 16.8 minutes. Last game: 01/03/25. Impact: 2.2
Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.2pts, 3.4reb, 1.7ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 01/16/25. Impact: 2.6
Dillon Jones (PF): Avg: 2.2pts, 1.9reb, 0.7ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 0.9
Adam Flagler (PG): Avg: 1.3pts, 0.4reb, 0.3ast, 4.4 minutes. Last game: 01/16/25. Impact: 0.4
Alex Ducas (SG): Avg: 0.4pts, 0.2reb, 0.1ast, 3.3 minutes. Last game: 01/16/25. Impact: 0.3

Mavericks Notable Injuries

Dereck Lively II (C): Avg: 8.9pts, 7.2reb, 1.6ast, 23.4 minutes. Last game: 01/14/25. Impact: 4.8
Markieff Morris (PF/C): Avg: 2.3pts, 1.3reb, 0.5ast, 7.3 minutes. Last game: 01/03/25. Impact: 0.7
Jazian Gortman (PG): Avg: 1.4pts, 0.3reb, 0.4ast, 3.3 minutes. Last game: 01/03/25. Impact: 0.5

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jalen Williams	OKL	Pts	19.5	21.4	+1.9	40%	40%	47%	47%	DAL	-0.1	#17
PJ Washington	DAL	Pts	14.5	16.0	+1.5	40%	50%	33%	33%	OKL	-3.1	#2
Jaylin Williams	OKL	Reb	5.5	6.3	+0.8	40%	30%	20%	20%	DAL	-0.6	#7
Daniel Gafford	DAL	Reb	8.5	9.3	+0.8	20%	20%	20%	20%	OKL	-1.2	#6

View All Player Prop Projections

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#12	#28	#8	#9	-3.9%
PF	#6	#6	#3	#3	-11.6%
PG	#9	#17	#7	#3	-7.8%
SF	#2	#9	#11	#2	-12.4%
SG	#3	#17	#4	#2	-11.5%

Mavericks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#18	#21	#25	#21	5.2%
PF	#17	#7	#23	#13	-2.2%
PG	#28	#6	#19	#27	6.5%
SF	#7	#13	#29	#13	-1.1%
SG	#17	#25	#7	#15	-0.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

118.1

115.1

Rebounds per Game

43.9

45.0

Assists per Game

26.6

25.2

Steals per Game

11.2

8.6

Blocks per Game

4.9

6.4

Shots per Game

91.7

87.8

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.5

13.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

57.3

52.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.9

38.5

Turnovers per Game

11.5

14.6

Fouls per Game

20.0

17.9

Recent Trends

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Daniel Gafford (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 84.4% to 21.3, 11.6 min average previous 3 games.
Jaylin Williams (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.6% to 17.2, 11.4 min average previous 3 games.