Thunder vs Grizzlies Game Breakdown

Get ready to rumble as the NBA playoffs heat up with a sizzling first-round matchup that’s anything but a snooze fest! Tonight, the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder, boasting an impressive 41-9 record, storm into the FedEx Forum to clash with the gritty Memphis Grizzlies, who’ve carved out a solid 35-16 season themselves. With both teams neck-and-neck in the Western Conference and the game tipping off at 9 PM EST, expect sparks to fly. The stakes are sky-high, and with the over/under tantalizingly set at 242, bettors and fans alike are buzzing. Fresh off dominant wins over Toronto, both squads are locked, loaded, and ready to battle it out. So, as the Thunder rolls and the Grizzlies growl, brace yourself for a showdown that promises to be more electric than a night in downtown Memphis!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 08, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis

Vegas Odds

	OKL ML	MEM ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-135	+115	243.0	-2.0/2.0
Recent	-120	-110	242.0	-2.0/2.0
Difference	+15	-225	-1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

38W-24L

54.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

9W-1L

HOME

28W-35L

45.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/29/24	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	31	19	24	32	106	Under
12/29/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	34	42	26	28	130	Under
03/16/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	29	27	35	27	118	Under
03/16/24	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	27	27	24	34	112	Under
03/10/24	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	24	19	25	25	93	Under
03/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	38	26	38	22	124	Under
12/18/23	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	26	27	13	31	97	Under
12/18/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	34	34	26	22	116	Under
04/09/23	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	24	25	24	27	100	Under
04/09/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	20	27	38	30	115	Under
12/17/22	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	21	22	33	33	109	Under
12/17/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	25	39	27	24	115	Under
12/07/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	25	27	35	15	102	Under
12/07/22	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	27	30	37	29	123	Under
11/18/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	31	24	27	110	Under
11/18/22	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	33	30	29	29	121	Under
03/13/22	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	38	23	34	30	125	Over
03/13/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	28	25	39	118	Over
12/20/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	16	31	27	28	102	Under
12/20/21	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	28	22	22	27	99	Under
12/02/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	16	20	26	17	79	Under
12/02/21	Memphis Grizzlies MEM	31	41	41	39	152	Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Grizzlies Vs Over/Under

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/07	@ TOR	121-109W	44	26	12	84
02/05	@ PHX	140-109W	46	24	5	102
02/03	@ MIL	125-96W	55	28	17	99
02/01	@ SAC	144-110W	70	37	11	107
01/29	vs GSW	109-116L	50	21	11	99
01/26	vs POR	118-108W	43	24	7	89
01/23	@ DAL	115-121L	33	26	12	88
01/22	@ UTA	123-114W	39	20	10	95
01/19	@ BRO	127-101W	43	37	11	87
01/17	vs DAL	98-106L	46	24	15	91

Grizzlies Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/05	vs TOR	138-107W	61	22	16	89
02/03	@ SAS	128-109W	47	33	15	99
02/02	vs MIL	132-119W	61	37	11	107
01/30	@ HOU	120-119W	37	23	11	93
01/27	vs NYK	106-143L	47	21	26	91
01/24	@ NOP	139-126W	43	38	12	101
01/22	@ CHA	132-120W	40	36	16	98
01/20	@ MIN	108-106W	47	19	13	86
01/17	vs SAS	140-112W	41	39	7	97
01/15	vs SAS	129-115W	52	28	8	103

Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SF	18.0	21.4	21.2	100%	21.5
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	50.0	55.4	54.3	100%	54.7
Isaiah Hartenstein C	31.0	31.6	34.3	100%	33.2
Aaron Wiggins PF	17.0	30.2	20.0	30%	26.8

Memphis Grizzlies	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Desmond Bane SG	33.0	39.2	36.6	100%	37.0
Zach Edey C	23.0	30.2	23.1	77%	22.2
Jaren Jackson Jr. PF	39.0	42.5	41.4	100%	41.8
Ja Morant PG	35.0	38.5	39.7	100%	40.0
Jaylen Wells SF	15.0	14.8	19.0	100%	19.4

Thunder Notable Injuries

Alex Caruso GTD (PG/SF): Avg: 8.8pts, 3.5reb, 3.2ast, 25.9 minutes. Last game: 02/07/25. Impact: 3.0
Cason Wallace (PG/SG): Avg: 6.7pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, 22.6 minutes. Last game: 02/01/25. Impact: 3.3
Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.6pts, 3.9reb, 1.8ast, 14.1 minutes. Last game: 02/07/25. Impact: 3.9
Ousmane Dieng (PF/C): Avg: 3.7pts, 1.9reb, 1.0ast, 10.7 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 1.8

Grizzlies Notable Injuries

Johnny Davis (PG): Avg: 2.7pts, 1.3reb, 0.5ast, 10.1 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 0.5
Yuki Kawamura (PG): Avg: 1.3pts, 0.4reb, 0.8ast, 3.4 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 0.6
Zyon Pullin (PG): Avg: 0.0pts, 0.0reb, 0.0ast, 0.8 minutes. Last game: 02/03/25. Impact: 0.0

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Chet Holmgren	OKL	Pts	9.5	10.8	+1.3	40%	70%	80%	80%	MEM	+1.4	#23
Jaren Jackson Jr.	MEM	Pts	21.5	22.2	+0.7	60%	60%	60%	60%	OKL	-0.7	#12
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKL	Reb	4.5	5.1	+0.6	40%	40%	40%	40%	MEM	-0.3	#10
Jalen Williams	OKL	Reb	4.5	4.6	+0.1	40%	50%	47%	47%	MEM	-0.6	#5
Zach Edey	MEM	Ast	0.5	1.0	+0.5	80%	70%	60%	60%	OKL	-0.7	#5

View All Player Prop Projections

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#19	#5	#3	-10.6%
PF	#12	#1	#5	#2	-11.6%
PG	#17	#8	#4	#4	-6.3%
SF	#3	#12	#7	#3	-8.6%
SG	#3	#22	#16	#2	-7.3%

Grizzlies Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#23	#2	#13	#20	2.3%
PF	#28	#27	#26	#30	12.8%
PG	#6	#10	#12	#6	-4.4%
SF	#19	#15	#30	#28	7.6%
SG	#24	#5	#25	#24	3.8%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

119.8

126.0

Rebounds per Game

44.5

48.0

Assists per Game

26.6

28.9

Steals per Game

10.1

9.6

Blocks per Game

4.6

5.0

Shots per Game

91.8

95.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.6

14.9

2-Pt Percentage per Game

57.5

55.2

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.2

39.4

Turnovers per Game

11.4

15.6

Fouls per Game

20.3

21.4

Recent Trends

Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF/C) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 3 consecutive games.
Alex Caruso (PG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 41.3% to 12.6, 21.5 min average previous 3 games.
Chet Holmgren (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.0% to 18.8, 27.2 min average previous 3 games.
Gregory Jackson (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 37.5% to 22.0, 16.0 min average previous 3 games.
Jaylin Williams (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.1% to 21.8, 16.8 min average previous 3 games.
Vince Williams Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 65.1% to 11.3, 32.4 min average previous 3 games.