Thunder vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and thunder down as the NBA playoffs continue to electrify! Tonight, the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder, boasting a stellar 21-5 record, swoop into the Kaseya Center to face the fiery Miami Heat, who are not too shabby themselves at 13-11. With the first round largely dominated by blowouts, tonight’s 09:00 PM EST showdown promises a nail-biter as both teams look to tighten the screws in their conference standings. The stakes are sky-high with the betting lines buzzing—the Thunder slightly edging out as favorites. Fresh off their respective wins, both teams are charged up and ready to clash in what could be the most thrilling match-up yet. So, brace yourselves as Miami brings the heat and Oklahoma City rolls in like thunder, in a battle where only the stormiest squad will reign supreme!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 20, 2024 09:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	OKL ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-120	+100	215.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-105	-115	216.5	1.0/-1.0
Difference	+15	-215	+1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

31W-21L

51.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

29W-22L

48.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/08/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	16	27	100	Under
03/08/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	20	30	30	107	Under
01/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	29	36	34	29	128	Over
01/10/24	Miami Heat MIA	35	34	27	24	120	Over
01/10/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	30	32	23	111	Over
01/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	32	26	23	112	Over
12/14/22	Miami Heat MIA	31	33	22	24	110	Over
12/14/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	31	21	32	24	108	Over
03/18/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	28	25	29	108	Over
03/18/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	42	34	17	120	Over
11/15/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	31	29	103	Under
11/15/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	24	19	24	23	90	Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/19	vs ORL	105-99W	32	23	13	83
12/14	@ HOU	111-96W	43	19	12	80
12/10	@ DAL	118-104W	52	29	13	101
12/07	vs NOP	119-109W	45	27	18	85
12/05	vs TOR	129-92W	56	28	6	102
12/03	@ UTA	133-106W	34	32	8	102
12/01	vs HOU	116-119L	46	30	7	94
11/29	vs LAL	101-93W	47	20	9	93
11/25	vs SAC	130-109W	44	28	15	86
11/20	@ POR	109-99W	46	24	13	91

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90
12/02	vs BOS	89-108L	44	24	10	87
12/01	vs TOR	116-119L	45	25	14	88
11/29	@ TOR	121-111W	33	32	8	94
11/26	@ MIL	103-106L	38	26	8	77
11/24	@ DAL	123-118W	57	27	9	107
11/18	@ PHI	106-89W	53	26	13	87

Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SF	25.0	27.1	24.0	100%	24.3
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	51.0	55.0	53.5	100%	53.9
Isaiah Hartenstein C	36.0	35.9	30.5	100%	29.4
Cason Wallace SG	21.0	21.9	16.7	47%	21.6
Jalen Williams PF	42.0	34.5	41.2	100%	41.7

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	47.0	44.0	38.4	100%	38.9
Jimmy Butler SF	37.0	33.8	33.5	100%	34.0
Tyler Herro PG	37.0	41.6	38.0	93%	39.0
Haywood Highsmith PF	14.0	18.9	17.3	47%	17.0
Duncan Robinson SG	17.0	22.8	15.0	50%	17.0

Thunder Notable Injuries

Alex Caruso GTD (SG/SF): Avg: 9.2pts, 3.7reb, 3.2ast, 26.9 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 3.2
Dillon Jones (PF): Avg: 2.5pts, 2.1reb, 0.7ast, 8.4 minutes. Last game: 12/10/24. Impact: 1.2
Branden Carlson (C): Avg: 0.8pts, 1.6reb, 0.4ast, 3.6 minutes. Last game: 12/10/24. Impact: 0.6
Adam Flagler (PG): Avg: 1.4pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 4.2 minutes. Last game: 12/05/24. Impact: 0.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	21.0	+4.5	40%	30%	47%	47%	OKL	-0.9	#9
Luguentz Dort	OKL	Pts	9.5	12.0	+2.5	60%	40%	53%	53%	MIA	-2.5	#2
Haywood Highsmith	MIA	Reb	2.5	2.9	+0.4	80%	70%	60%	60%	OKL	+1.2	#30
Terry Rozier	MIA	Ast	2.5	3.3	+0.8	20%	30%	47%	47%	OKL	-1.4	#2
Cason Wallace	OKL	Ast	1.5	2.1	+0.6	80%	80%	73%	73%	MIA	+1.3	#27

View All Player Prop Projections

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#10	#28	#24	#14	-0.9%
PF	#9	#13	#4	#8	-4.7%
PG	#2	#23	#2	#1	-14.2%
SF	#22	#30	#17	#15	2.3%
SG	#4	#23	#15	#8	-4.0%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#8	#2	#18	#5	-7.9%
PF	#16	#24	#18	#14	0.2%
PG	#19	#12	#27	#21	3.2%
SF	#27	#19	#14	#21	3.7%
SG	#2	#20	#16	#5	-7.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

116.8

113.1

Rebounds per Game

43.0

43.2

Assists per Game

26.4

27.0

Steals per Game

11.4

8.5

Blocks per Game

6.3

3.4

Shots per Game

91.3

87.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.5

14.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

55.9

52.4

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.8

38.3

Turnovers per Game

11.6

11.5

Fouls per Game

20.0

16.4

Recent Trends

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 4 consecutive games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.3% to 12.6, 21.1 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.3% to 16.5, 25.4 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.9% to 29.5, 19.1 min average previous 3 games.