Thunder vs Raptors Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Mar 22nd 2024

Listen up, hoop heads! The basketball gods have blessed us with a David versus Goliath showdown tonight, and we’re not talking about a rerun of the biblical epic. No sir, we’re talking about the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder, who’ve been thundering their way through the Western conference like a herd of caffeinated bison, squaring off against the Toronto Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena. Now, the Raptors might be more akin to a pack of baby velociraptors in the Eastern conference, but hey, every underdog has its day, right? These two teams are set to lock horns at the prime time of 7PM EST, and let’s just say, the betting lines are looking as lopsided as a seesaw with Shaq on one end. The over/under’s hovering around 231.5, with the Thunder at -15.0 (no surprise there) and the Raptors at 15.0. Now, the Raptors might be nursing a hangover from their 89-123 spanking at the hands of SAC, but the Thunder are still basking in the afterglow of their 119-107 victory over UTA. So buckle up, folks! Tonight, we find out if the Thunder’s lightning strikes twice, or if the Raptors can claw their way to an upset.

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 22, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Vegas Odds

	OKL ML	TOR ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-1400	+750	228.5	-15.0/15.0
Recent	-420	+315	231.5	-15.5/15.5
Difference	+980	-435	+3.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

19W-14L

80.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

1W-9L

HOME

13W-20L

19.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
02/04/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	33	30	24	23	89	127	Over
02/04/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	23	24	34	29	817	135	Over
03/16/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	31	28	24		111	Over
03/16/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	29	35	29	35		128	Over
11/11/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	32	29	28		113	Over
11/11/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	29	41	36	26		132	Over
02/09/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	34	25	28	30		117	Under
02/09/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	22	29	21	26		98	Under
12/08/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	28	33	23		110	Under
12/08/21	Toronto Raptors TOR	36	28	12	33		109	Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Raptors Vs Over/Under

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/20	@ UTA	119-107W	45	29	10	88
03/16	vs MEM	118-112W	45	25	11	87
03/14	@ DAL	126-119W	34	28	13	86
03/12	@ IND	99-121L	47	22	12	96
03/10	@ MEM	124-93W	46	36	10	94
03/08	@ MIA	107-100W	45	28	9	89
03/06	vs POR	128-120W	39	23	18	75
03/04	vs LAL	104-116L	38	22	10	94
03/03	vs PHX	118-0W	41	21	5	31
02/29	vs SAS	118-132L	37	20	10	89

Raptors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/20	@ SAC	89-123L	31	21	21	80
03/17	vs ORL	96-111L	37	23	18	84
03/15	@ ORL	103-113L	40	24	15	81
03/13	vs DET	104-113L	37	32	11	94
03/11	vs DEN	119-125L	42	30	11	93
03/09	vs POR	118-128L	43	29	20	92
03/07	vs PHX	113-120L	36	30	9	95
03/05	@ NOP	98-141L	45	21	11	93
03/03	@ CHA	111-106W	45	27	14	92
03/01	@ GSW	105-120L	47	31	14	97

Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SF	22.0	21.6	19.7	100%	20.1
Josh Giddey SG	30.4	30.8	26.2	100%	26.6
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	59.0	44.2	50.9	100%	51.3
Chet Holmgren C	42.2	39.6	37.0	100%	37.3
Jalen Williams PF	40.4	33.9	36.5	100%	36.9

Toronto Raptors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Ochai Agbaji SF	21.0	16.1	11.1	30%	15.6
Bruce Brown PF	34.2	26.6	21.5	43%	28.4
Gradey Dick SG	26.3	17.9	15.9	20%	18.0
Kelly Olynyk C	37.5	29.5	23.8	27%	31.2
Gary Trent Jr. PG	35.6	36.4	23.4	87%	24.8

Thunder Notable Injuries

Bismack Biyombo (C): Avg: 4.6pts, 5.5reb, 1.5ast, 21.5 minutes. Last game: 03/10/24. Impact: 1.3
Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 3.8pts, 3.2reb, 1.3ast, 12.6 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 1.8
Mike Muscala (C): Avg: 3.5pts, 2.6reb, 0.8ast, 12.6 minutes. Last game: 03/16/24. Impact: 0.8
Ousmane Dieng (PF): Avg: 3.8pts, 1.7reb, 1.1ast, 11.0 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 1.2
Lindy Waters III (SG): Avg: 2.7pts, 0.9reb, 0.5ast, 6.5 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 0.8

Raptors Notable Injuries

RJ Barrett (SF): Avg: 19.7pts, 5.2reb, 3.3ast, 31.7 minutes. Last game: 03/11/24. Impact: 6.0
Immanuel Quickley (PG): Avg: 16.6pts, 3.7reb, 4.7ast, 29.0 minutes. Last game: 03/17/24. Impact: 6.9
Chris Boucher (C): Avg: 6.4pts, 4.2reb, 0.5ast, 14.2 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 2.6

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bruce Brown	TOR	Pts	12.5	15.8	+3.3	40%	20%	13%	13%	OKL	+1.5	#23
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKL	Pts	30.5	33.6	+3.1	40%	60%	67%	67%	TOR	+0.1	#18
Gradey Dick	TOR	Reb	2.5	4.0	+1.5	40%	40%	47%	47%	OKL	-2.5	#1
Kelly Olynyk	TOR	Reb	6.5	7.7	+1.2	20%	20%	13%	13%	OKL	0.0	#17
Jalen Williams	OKL	Ast	4.5	5.2	+0.7	40%	30%	47%	47%	TOR	+0.7	#23

View All Player Prop Projections

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#16	#17	#21	#17	-0.1%
PF	#22	#26	#10	#24	5.3%
PG	#3	#27	#4	#2	-19.6%
SF	#10	#1	#25	#9	-7.7%
SG	#23	#8	#16	#15	0.5%

Raptors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#25	#30	#29	#30	17.2%
PF	#29	#28	#22	#28	10.6%
PG	#12	#13	#8	#11	-5.4%
SF	#29	#25	#23	#28	13.1%
SG	#18	#22	#11	#20	2.1%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

119.4

111.1

Rebounds per Game

44.3

41.7

Assists per Game

25.5

28.4

Steals per Game

8.7

8.1

Blocks per Game

7.0

4.9

Shots per Game

85.9

91.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.6

12.6

2-Pt Percentage per Game

56.4

53.6

3-Pt Percentage per Game

39.0

34.6

Turnovers per Game

11.2

13.4

Fouls per Game

17.7

17.8

Recent Trends

Javon Freeman-Liberty (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.8% to 12.0, 17.9 min average previous 3 games.
Jalen Williams (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 40.0% to 34.0, 24.3 min average previous 3 games.