76ers vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 4th 2024

Hey, hoop-heads! Brace yourselves for a scorching showdown tonight as the steaming Miami Heat, with a hot 42W-33L record, are about to clash with the hard-charging Philadelphia 76ers, who are not far behind with a 41W-35L record. This face-off is going down at the Heat’s very own inferno, the Kaseya Center, with the first whistle blowing at 07:30PM EST sharp. Now, let’s talk digits: the 76ers are trailing 19 games in the Eastern conference, while the Heat are just 2.5 games behind. The betting line’s been drawn, folks: the over/under is a tantalizing 209.5, with the 76ers at 2.5 and the Heat at -2.5. Both teams are riding the victory wave, with the Heat having melted the NY Knicks 109-99 and the 76ers thundering past OKL with a 109-105 win. Tonight, it’s a battle of fire and liberty, so let’s see if the Heat can keep the flame alive or if the 76ers can ring the bell of victory!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 04, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	PHI ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+110	-130	210.0	2.5/-2.5
Recent	+115	-135	209.5	3.0/-3.0
Difference	+5	-5	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

19W-18L

46.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

20W-17L

53.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/18/24	Miami Heat MIA	23	26	16	26	91	Under
03/18/24	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	31	20	28	19	98	Under
02/14/24	Miami Heat MIA	33	27	23	26	109	Over
02/14/24	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	33	29	20	22	104	Over
12/25/23	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	22	27	37	27	113	Over
12/25/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	37	23	33	119	Over
04/06/23	Miami Heat MIA	41	26	29	33	129	Over
04/06/23	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	31	15	32	23	101	Over
03/01/23	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	34	37	25	23	119	Over
03/01/23	Miami Heat MIA	38	15	24	19	96	Over
02/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	26	17	101	Under
02/27/23	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	22	28	30	19	99	Under
03/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	32	24	22	28	106	Over
03/21/22	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	26	31	23	33	113	Over
03/05/22	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	14	26	28	14	82	Under
03/05/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	32	19	26	99	Under
01/15/22	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	20	23	32	34	109	Under
01/15/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	21	23	25	98	Under
12/15/21	Miami Heat MIA	29	29	23	20	101	Under
12/15/21	Philadelphia 76ers PHI	18	31	21	26	96	Under

76ers Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

76ers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/02	@ OKL	109-105W	42	27	16	78
03/31	vs TOR	135-120W	39	28	15	83
03/29	vs CLE	114-116L	42	28	9	94
03/27	@ LAC	107-108L	51	17	12	82
03/25	vs SAC	96-108L	47	18	15	82
03/24	vs LAC	121-107W	37	32	8	90
03/22	vs LAL	94-103L	42	20	8	98
03/20	vs PHX	102-115L	40	33	9	95
03/18	@ MIA	98-91W	46	23	12	85
03/16	@ CHA	109-98W	41	25	15	81

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92
03/24	@ CLE	121-84W	44	29	9	83
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93

Starting Lineups

Philadelphia 76ers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Joel Embiid C	48.2	55.5	62.4	100%	62.8
Tobias Harris PF	31.6	33.5	32.0	100%	30.8
Kyle Lowry SG	18.3	20.1	19.2	83%	20.1
Tyrese Maxey PG	37.7	41.9	40.0	100%	38.3
Kelly Oubre Jr. SF	31.7	33.2	30.3	80%	29.9

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	43.4	45.0	38.2	100%	37.6
Jimmy Butler SF	42.3	30.1	37.0	100%	35.7
Nikola Jovic PF	18.8	21.6	16.3	90%	18.3
Duncan Robinson SG	22.1	22.6	21.5	57%	26.0
Terry Rozier PG	32.3	37.6	30.9	93%	31.7

76ers Notable Injuries

Mo Bamba (C): Avg: 4.6pts, 4.2reb, 0.7ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 3.4
Jeff Dowtin (PG/SG): Avg: 4.4pts, 1.6reb, 2.4ast, 12.3 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.7
D.J. Wilson (C): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.0reb, 1.0ast, 7.7 minutes. Last game: 03/25/24. Impact: 2.7
Ricky Council IV (SG/SF): Avg: 5.7pts, 1.5reb, 0.4ast, 8.7 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.2

Heat Notable Injuries

Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.4pts, 1.6reb, 0.5ast, 11.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.1
Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 2.1
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.0ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.7
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.8pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.6
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.2

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	20.5	23.0	+2.5	0%	10%	33%	33%	PHI	-2.6	#11
Duncan Robinson	MIA	Pts	10.5	12.1	+1.6	40%	50%	60%	60%	PHI	-3.4	#1
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	10.5	10.6	+0.1	40%	50%	33%	33%	PHI	+1.3	#27

View All Player Prop Projections

76ers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#9	#27	#26	#19	3.1%
PF	#28	#26	#22	#29	9.2%
PG	#3	#2	#17	#4	-35.2%
SF	#11	#26	#5	#13	-7.3%
SG	#1	#20	#8	#1	-11.1%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#21	#9	#2	-17.0%
PF	#1	#18	#1	#2	-14.7%
PG	#22	#11	#24	#17	2.2%
SF	#30	#10	#11	#29	22.0%
SG	#11	#17	#23	#14	-2.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

103.7

106.9

Rebounds per Game

41.4

42.3

Assists per Game

23.7

24.7

Steals per Game

7.5

8.1

Blocks per Game

6.7

3.7

Shots per Game

86.2

86.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.2

12.6

2-Pt Percentage per Game

49.0

52.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.3

36.3

Turnovers per Game

11.5

9.9

Fouls per Game

19.4

15.2

Recent Trends

Nicolas Batum (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 29.8, 22.9 min average previous 3 games.
Robert Covington (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.8% to 10.8, 17.6 min average previous 3 games.
Cameron Payne (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 36.0% to 23.9, 17.6 min average previous 3 games.