Trail Blazers vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and blaze some trails as the NBA playoffs continue to sizzle! Tonight, the underdog Portland Trail Blazers, fresh off a fiery win, are set to storm the Kaseya Center, squaring off against the Miami Heat, who themselves scorched the Spurs in their last outing. With the Blazers looking to upset the balance in the Western conference and the Heat just half a game shy of Eastern conference glory, this match at 08:30 PM EST is anything but a standard playoff encounter. The stakes are sky-high with the betting lines buzzing and an over/under that promises a high-octane clash. As both teams come off convincing victories, we’re all set for a showdown that’s sure to heat up the court. So, whether you’re a fan of the heat wave or riding the trail, tonight’s game is set to fan the flames of an epic battle!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 21, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	POR ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+425	-600	220.0	11.0/-11.0
Recent	+270	-340	222.0	11.0/-11.0
Difference	-155	+260	+2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

14W-42L

27.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

31W-26L

73.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/11/25	Miami Heat MIA	29	37	28	25	119	Under
01/11/25	Portland Trail Blazers POR	23	25	35	15	98	Under
03/29/24	Portland Trail Blazers POR	19	21	23	19	82	Over
03/29/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	45	33	35	142	Over
02/27/24	Miami Heat MIA	15	31	34	26	106	Under
02/27/24	Portland Trail Blazers POR	28	28	20	20	96	Under
11/07/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	28	25	20	37	110	Under
11/07/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	32	21	26	107	Under
10/26/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	33	33	25	119	Under
10/26/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	31	25	25	17	98	Under
01/19/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	26	30	24	12	92	Under
01/19/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	35	20	26	104	Under
01/05/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	28	25	32	115	Over
01/05/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	23	24	33	29	109	Over

Trail Blazers Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Trail Blazers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/19	@ CHI	113-102W	50	21	17	89
01/18	@ HOU	103-125L	40	28	19	86
01/16	@ LAC	89-118L	37	24	16	91
01/14	@ BRO	114-132L	38	20	17	86
01/11	@ MIA	98-119L	51	24	16	95
01/09	vs DAL	111-117L	43	24	12	93
01/08	vs NOP	119-100W	44	24	13	88
01/06	vs DET	115-118L	38	32	16	90
01/04	vs MIL	105-102W	55	21	17	85
01/02	vs LAL	106-114L	42	24	18	80

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/19	@ SAS	128-107W	49	35	11	95
01/17	@ DEN	113-133L	41	30	8	91
01/15	vs LAL	108-117L	37	25	19	73
01/13	vs LAC	98-109L	49	22	15	85
01/11	vs POR	119-98W	43	31	10	92
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91
01/07	vs GSW	114-98W	48	32	9	91
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75

Starting Lineups

Portland Trail Blazers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Deni Avdija SF	37.0	35.6	30.0	43%	33.4
Deandre Ayton C	35.0	25.2	30.6	100%	31.0
Jerami Grant PF	26.0	20.5	26.5	100%	26.9
Scoot Henderson PG	25.0	40.2	26.5	20%	35.0
Anfernee Simons SG	32.0	25.6	30.1	100%	30.5

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	38.0	32.9	38.3	100%	38.8
Jimmy Butler SF	33.0	18.5	32.0	100%	32.4
Tyler Herro PG	39.0	45.0	41.2	100%	41.5
Haywood Highsmith PF	19.0	18.3	16.6	100%	16.9
Duncan Robinson SG	20.0	17.5	20.4	60%	21.3

Trail Blazers Notable Injuries

Donovan Clingan (C): Avg: 5.9pts, 6.8reb, 0.7ast, 16.8 minutes. Last game: 01/14/25. Impact: 3.1
Duop Reath (C): Avg: 7.6pts, 3.0reb, 0.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/18/25. Impact: 0.8
Bryce McGowens (SG): Avg: 4.6pts, 1.6reb, 0.8ast, 13.7 minutes. Last game: 01/18/25. Impact: 0.7
Rayan Rupert (SG/SF): Avg: 3.5pts, 1.9reb, 1.1ast, 13.0 minutes. Last game: 01/18/25. Impact: 0.5
Justin Minaya (PF): Avg: 1.4pts, 1.4reb, 0.6ast, 9.4 minutes. Last game: 01/18/25. Impact: 1.0

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Deandre Ayton	POR	Pts	12.5	15.7	+3.2	40%	40%	53%	53%	MIA	-2.7	#4
Jerami Grant	POR	Pts	12.5	15.5	+3.0	60%	70%	60%	60%	MIA	-1.2	#9
Toumani Camara	POR	Reb	4.5	5.8	+1.3	80%	50%	67%	67%	MIA	+0.8	#25
Deni Avdija	POR	Reb	7.5	8.1	+0.6	60%	60%	40%	40%	MIA	+0.6	#25
Terry Rozier	MIA	Ast	2.5	3.0	+0.5	60%	60%	40%	40%	POR	+0.5	#22
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Ast	2.5	2.9	+0.4	100%	90%	80%	80%	POR	-0.2	#12

View All Player Prop Projections

Trail Blazers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#21	#27	#25	#28	8.9%
PF	#18	#8	#7	#21	1.9%
PG	#6	#18	#22	#15	0.2%
SF	#20	#21	#12	#19	2.9%
SG	#29	#3	#25	#27	8.2%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#4	#25	#7	#8	-7.0%
PF	#9	#25	#30	#20	1.7%
PG	#8	#17	#21	#12	-1.2%
SF	#25	#25	#17	#23	5.2%
SG	#13	#8	#16	#10	-3.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

108.3

111.4

Rebounds per Game

42.8

43.8

Assists per Game

24.0

27.0

Steals per Game

7.3

7.8

Blocks per Game

5.3

3.9

Shots per Game

89.0

86.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

12.8

13.9

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.7

54.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

33.8

36.6

Turnovers per Game

15.2

12.5

Fouls per Game

19.3

15.5

Recent Trends

Dalano Banton (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.0% to 18.4, 13.0 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.4% to 29.2, 20.5 min average previous 3 games.
Donovan Clingan (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 66.0% to 24.7, 14.9 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 46.2% to 17.1, 31.7 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Matisse Thybulle (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 62.1% to 10.9, 28.8 min average previous 3 games.
Robert Williams (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 57.2% to 17.9, 11.4 min average previous 3 games.