Spurs vs Heat Game Breakdown

Alright, hoop heads and fantasy freaks, buckle up for an NBA playoff clash that’s anything but ordinary! Today’s face-off sends the San Antonio Spurs galloping into the sweltering Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center, where the playoff atmosphere is just starting to boil! With both teams hovering around the .500 mark and eager to shake off recent bruising defeats, this match-up at 4 PM EST could very well reignite the fire we’ve been missing in those first-round blowouts. The stakes? Just a chance to tighten the screws in their conference standings and make a statement that neither team is just here to play— they’re here to conquer. So, as the Spurs try to lasso the Heat in their own backyard, we’re all set to see if Miami can turn up the temperature and cook up a storm!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 19, 2025 04:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	SAS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+125	-145	219.5	2.5/-2.5
Recent	+120	-140	219.5	2.5/-2.5
Difference	-5	+5	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

17W-39L

45.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

30W-26L

54.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
02/07/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	31	20	26	27	104	Over
02/07/24	Miami Heat MIA	32	21	25	38	116	Over
11/12/23	Miami Heat MIA	15	35	32	36	118	Over
11/12/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	29	24	31	29	113	Over
12/17/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	27	28	31	111	Under
12/17/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	28	27	29	17	101	Under
12/10/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	25	34	27	29	115	Over
12/10/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	27	27	111	Over
02/26/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	40	18	39	32	129	Over
02/26/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	33	38	34	133	Over
02/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	21	36	31	24	112	Under
02/03/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	19	28	19	29	95	Under

Spurs Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Spurs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/17	@ MEM	112-140L	40	29	17	84
01/15	@ MEM	115-129L	44	22	11	89
01/13	vs LAL	126-102W	41	30	10	90
01/08	vs MIL	105-121L	46	24	9	95
01/06	vs CHI	110-114L	49	31	17	95
01/04	@ DEN	111-122L	58	28	12	104
01/03	vs DEN	113-110W	56	31	13	99
12/31	@ LAC	122-86W	58	37	9	98
12/29	vs MIN	110-112L	41	25	9	87
12/27	vs BRO	96-87W	43	26	13	77

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/17	@ DEN	113-133L	41	30	8	91
01/15	vs LAL	108-117L	37	25	19	73
01/13	vs LAC	98-109L	49	22	15	85
01/11	vs POR	119-98W	43	31	10	92
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91
01/07	vs GSW	114-98W	48	32	9	91
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83

Starting Lineups

San Antonio Spurs	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Harrison Barnes PF	21.0	23.6	20.7	100%	21.1
Stephon Castle SG	27.0	27.0	23.3	70%	27.1
Chris Paul PG	31.0	31.7	30.2	100%	30.5
Devin Vassell SF	32.0	33.8	30.8	67%	33.7
Victor Wembanyama C	59.0	50.1	54.7	100%	54.9

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	39.0	35.7	38.9	100%	39.4
Jimmy Butler SF	32.0	18.0	32.2	100%	32.6
Tyler Herro PG	39.0	46.2	41.5	100%	41.9
Haywood Highsmith PF	16.0	19.9	17.1	93%	18.0
Duncan Robinson SG	19.0	12.2	19.8	57%	20.7

Spurs Notable Injuries

Jeremy Sochan (PF/C): Avg: 11.8pts, 6.7reb, 3.1ast, 29.5 minutes. Last game: 01/06/25. Impact: 4.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.5reb, 1.0ast, 4.6 minutes. Last game: 01/11/25. Impact: 1.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Victor Wembanyama	SAS	Pts	23.5	25.3	+1.8	0%	30%	47%	47%	MIA	-3.2	#3
Harrison Barnes	SAS	Pts	10.5	12.3	+1.8	60%	60%	47%	47%	MIA	+1.8	#26
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	9.5	9.6	+0.1	40%	40%	47%	47%	SAS	+0.9	#26

View All Player Prop Projections

Spurs Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#29	#15	#19	#19	5.2%
PF	#17	#26	#12	#21	2.0%
PG	#1	#13	#26	#2	-8.5%
SF	#14	#24	#2	#12	-2.4%
SG	#24	#28	#30	#29	9.7%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#25	#6	#8	-8.1%
PF	#5	#25	#28	#20	1.0%
PG	#8	#14	#22	#15	-0.5%
SF	#26	#26	#16	#24	6.0%
SG	#13	#5	#17	#11	-3.1%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

114.2

110.8

Rebounds per Game

46.5

43.6

Assists per Game

29.4

26.6

Steals per Game

7.7

7.8

Blocks per Game

7.2

3.8

Shots per Game

91.2

86.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.4

13.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.8

54.4

3-Pt Percentage per Game

33.5

36.0

Turnovers per Game

12.7

12.6

Fouls per Game

16.9

15.6

Recent Trends

Stephon Castle (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 57.4% to 31.1, 19.8 min average previous 3 games.
David Duke Jr. (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.7% to 11.5, 16.9 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.2% to 24.5, 18.5 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Jeremy Sochan (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.4% to 22.6, 34.9 min average previous 3 games.