Raptors vs Nuggets Game Analysis & Predictions – Mon, Mar 11th 2024

Raptors
23W-41L

March 11, 2024
09:00PM EST
Odds: 230.0 o/u
Nuggets
44W-20L


Alright, hoop junkies, it’s time to get those fantasy rosters in check! The scrappy 23W-41L Toronto Raptors are packing their bags and heading over to the Mile High City to face off against the 44W-20L Denver Nuggets at the Ball Arena. With a late night tipoff set for 09:00PM EST, you’ve got plenty of time to mull over your picks. Now, the Raptors may be a staggering 26.5 games back in the Eastern conference, but don’t count these underdogs out just yet. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are sitting pretty just 1.0 game back in the Wild West conference. The betting gods have set the over/under at a whopping 230.0, with the Raps at a 13.5 line and the Nuggets favored at -13.5. Fresh off a 142-123 victory over Utah, the Nuggets are looking to keep that winning streak alive. On the flip side, the Raptors, licking their wounds from a 118-128 loss against Portland, are hungry for redemption. So, who’s it gonna be, folks? Make your picks, place your bets, and let’s get ready for some basketball!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: March 11, 2024 09:00PM EST
Location: Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Odds
TOR ML | DEN ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | +700 | -1200 | 226.0 | 13.5/-13.5 |
Recent | +260 | -370 | 230.0 | 16.0/-16.0 |
Difference | -440 | +830 | +4.0 | – |
Team Performance

27.8% Win Probability

72.2% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12/20/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 29 | 32 | 29 | 23 | 113 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 20 | 24 | 31 | 29 | 104 | ||||
03/14/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 30 | 26 | 36 | 18 | 110 | Over | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 49 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 125 | ||||
03/06/23 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 34 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 113 | Over | ![]() |
|
Denver Nuggets DEN | 29 | 29 | 25 | 35 | 118 | ||||
03/12/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 28 | 37 | 28 | 34 | 127 | Over | ![]() |
|
Denver Nuggets DEN | 25 | 38 | 36 | 16 | 115 | ||||
02/12/22 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 31 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 110 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 25 | 32 | 29 | 23 | 109 |
Raptors Vs Over/Under
Nuggets Vs Over/Under
Starting Lineups
Toronto Raptors | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ochai Agbaji
SF
|
15.8 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 13% | 15.1 |
RJ Barrett
PF
|
36.8 | 36.1 | 34.5 | 100% | 34.8 |
Gradey Dick
SG
|
19.4 | 16.2 | 13.5 | 3% | 18.2 |
10.0 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 0% | 0 | |
34.3 | 32.6 | 22.1 | 10% | 34.2 |
Denver Nuggets | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
25.4 | 27.6 | 20.3 | 100% | 20.6 | |
Aaron Gordon
PF
|
33.9 | 29.0 | 28.3 | 100% | 28.7 |
68.0 | 54.8 | 57.5 | 100% | 57.7 | |
Jamal Murray
PG
|
48.9 | 42.4 | 39.8 | 100% | 40.3 |
35.3 | 36.7 | 29.7 | 100% | 30.1 |
Raptors Notable Injuries
- Scottie Barnes (PG): Avg: 19.7pts, 8.1reb, 6.1ast, 34.8 minutes. Last game: 03/01/24. Impact: 7.3
- Jakob Poeltl (C): Avg: 11.4pts, 8.8reb, 2.5ast, 26.4 minutes. Last game: 03/03/24. Impact: 5.5
- Jontay Porter (C): Avg: 4.2pts, 3.1reb, 1.8ast, 12.9 minutes. Last game: 03/05/24. Impact: 1.8
- Mouhamadou Gueye (C): Avg: 1.0pts, 2.5reb, 0.0ast, 4.8 minutes. Last game: 03/05/24. Impact: 1.0
- Jahmi’us Ramsey (PG): Avg: 2.0pts, 2.0reb, 1.0ast, 5.2 minutes. Last game: 03/05/24. Impact: 1.1
- D.J. Carton (PG): Avg: 2.8pts, 1.0reb, 0.8ast, 8.9 minutes. Last game: 03/05/24. Impact: 0.9
Nuggets Notable Injuries
- Julian Strawther (SG/SF): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.3reb, 1.0ast, 12.2 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
- Jalen Pickett (PG): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.5reb, 0.8ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.3
- Braxton Key (PF): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.8reb, 0.5ast, 3.2 minutes. Last game: 02/25/24. Impact: 0.5
- Jay Huff (C): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
- Hunter Tyson (PF): Avg: 0.7pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.4
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Nikola Jokic | DEN | Pts | 25.5 | 29.7 | +4.2 | 60% | 50% | 53% | 53% | TOR | +2.7 | #24 |
Immanuel Quickley | TOR | Pts | 20.5 | 24.6 | +4.1 | 60% | 60% | 47% | 47% | DEN | -2.0 | #5 |
Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | Reb | 6.5 | 8.1 | +1.6 | 60% | 60% | 53% | 53% | TOR | +1.6 | #29 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | DEN | Reb | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 40% | 40% | 33% | 33% | TOR | +0.6 | #24 |
Jamal Murray | DEN | Ast | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | 60% | 40% | 47% | 47% | TOR | +0.7 | #26 |
Raptors Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #24 | #30 | #10 | #29 | 15.1% |
PF | #25 | #21 | #22 | #26 | 7.9% |
PG | #8 | #16 | #22 | #11 | -2.3% |
SF | #29 | #29 | #12 | #29 | 12.6% |
SG | #28 | #24 | #26 | #27 | 9.7% |
Nuggets Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #5 | #14 | #13 | #11 | -5.3% |
PF | #18 | #22 | #15 | #16 | 0.3% |
PG | #12 | #10 | #23 | #8 | -7.9% |
SF | #21 | #18 | #24 | #23 | 6.5% |
SG | #5 | #5 | #13 | #6 | -8.3% |

Team Comparison

Recent Trends
- Gradey Dick (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.9% to 32.3, 23.2 min average previous 3 games.
- Reggie Jackson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.7% to 12.1, 19.7 min average previous 3 games.
- Jamal Murray (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 36.5% to 38.7, 28.4 min average previous 3 games.
- Peyton Watson (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.1% to 22.1, 17.0 min average previous 3 games. The Raptors have a 2-game losing streak on the road. Overall, they are on a 3-game losing streak. The Nuggets have a 2-game winning streak at home. Overall, they are on a 2-game winning streak.
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