Raptors vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 12th 2024

Raptors
25W-55L

April 12, 2024
08:00PM EST
Odds: 218.5 o/u
Heat
44W-36L


Get ready for a scorching showdown tonight as the underdog Toronto Raptors swoop into the sizzling Kaseya Center, ready to clash with the Miami Heat. With the tipoff set for 08:00 PM EST, the stakes are sky-high. The Raptors, though trailing far behind in the Eastern Conference, are hungry for a win to salvage some pride, while the Heat, just a breath away from the top, are looking to extinguish their recent setback. The odds-makers have the line drawn with the Heat as the heavy favorites, and an over/under that promises plenty of bucket-making action. Both teams are bouncing back from recent defeats and are desperate to return to their winning ways. Tonight, it’s all about whether the Heat can turn up the temperature or if the Raptors will claw their way to an unexpected victory. So, fans, brace yourselves—tonight, it’s a battle of fire and flight!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: April 12, 2024 08:00PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Vegas Odds
TOR ML | MIA ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | +850 | -1800 | 218.5 | 14.5/-14.5 |
Recent | +650 | -1100 | 218.5 | 14.5/-14.5 |
Difference | -200 | +700 | 0 | – |
Team Performance

13.3% Win Probability

86.7% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12/06/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 37 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 112 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 32 | 34 | 18 | 19 | 103 | ||||
01/17/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 18 | 25 | 30 | 24 | 97 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 41 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 121 | ||||
03/28/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 92 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 24 | 29 | 31 | 22 | 106 | ||||
11/16/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 31 | 29 | 19 | 25 | 104 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 27 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 112 | ||||
10/24/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 27 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 98 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 20 | 33 | 14 | 90 | ||||
10/22/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 33 | 17 | 33 | 26 | 109 | Over | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 38 | 33 | 21 | 20 | 112 | ||||
04/03/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 17 | 34 | 35 | 114 | Over | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 34 | 21 | 23 | 31 | 109 | ||||
02/01/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 32 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 106 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 22 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 110 | ||||
01/29/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 28 | 31 | 26 | 15 | 59 | 124 | Over | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 27 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 59 | 120 | |||
01/17/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 30 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 99 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 27 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 104 |
Raptors Vs Over/Under
Heat Vs Over/Under
Raptors Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04/10 | vs BRO | 102-106L | 45 | 19 | 9 | 94 |
04/09 | @ IND | 123-140L | 40 | 21 | 15 | 94 |
04/07 | @ WAS | 130-122W | 49 | 33 | 13 | 96 |
04/05 | vs MIL | 117-94W | 47 | 24 | 16 | 77 |
04/03 | vs MIN | 85-133L | 48 | 19 | 20 | 90 |
04/02 | @ LAL | 111-128L | 40 | 25 | 17 | 89 |
03/31 | @ PHI | 120-135L | 30 | 31 | 12 | 90 |
03/27 | @ NYK | 101-145L | 28 | 31 | 18 | 84 |
03/25 | @ BRO | 88-96L | 30 | 23 | 10 | 85 |
03/23 | vs WAS | 109-112L | 42 | 27 | 12 | 94 |
Heat Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04/10 | @ DAL | 92-111L | 46 | 22 | 15 | 81 |
04/09 | vs ATL | 117-111W | 46 | 29 | 18 | 88 |
04/07 | vs IND | 115-117L | 39 | 21 | 7 | 84 |
04/05 | vs HOU | 119-96W | 48 | 27 | 9 | 81 |
04/04 | @ PHI | 105-109L | 51 | 24 | 15 | 94 |
04/02 | @ NYK | 109-99W | 39 | 24 | 17 | 74 |
03/31 | vs WAS | 119-107W | 42 | 22 | 13 | 81 |
03/29 | @ POR | 142-82W | 44 | 41 | 8 | 93 |
03/26 | @ GSW | 92-113L | 39 | 24 | 8 | 92 |
03/24 | @ CLE | 121-84W | 44 | 29 | 9 | 83 |
Starting Lineups
Toronto Raptors | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ochai Agbaji
SF
|
16.0 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 57% | 17.1 |
RJ Barrett
PF
|
33.5 | 41.8 | 36.7 | 100% | 37.1 |
31.2 | 37.2 | 28.4 | 57% | 33.6 | |
38.9 | 47.5 | 37.9 | 100% | 37.1 | |
4.3 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 7% | 15.5 |
Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
42.3 | 33.6 | 38.1 | 100% | 38.5 | |
Jimmy Butler
SF
|
42.4 | 38.5 | 38.1 | 100% | 36.8 |
Tyler Herro
PG
|
38.4 | 35.2 | 34.9 | 90% | 35.9 |
Nikola Jovic
PF
|
21.2 | 22.7 | 16.4 | 90% | 18.4 |
Terry Rozier
SG
|
29.7 | 33.6 | 30.6 | 100% | 30.1 |
Raptors Notable Injuries
- Kobi Simmons (SG): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.8reb, 3.0ast, 16.9 minutes. Last game: 04/02/24. Impact: 2.0
Heat Notable Injuries
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 12.7pts, 2.5reb, 2.8ast, 27.6 minutes. Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 2.8
- Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 11.0 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 3.0
- Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.5reb, 0.4ast, 10.7 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.8
- Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.5pts, 2.2reb, 1.0ast, 8.0 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.6
- Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.6pts, 0.4reb, 0.3ast, 5.2 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.5
- Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.6pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.5 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.1
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Gary Trent Jr. | TOR | Pts | 15.5 | 18.8 | +3.3 | 100% | 90% | 87% | 87% | MIA | -1.6 | #6 |
Jimmy Butler | MIA | Pts | 20.5 | 23.0 | +2.5 | 60% | 30% | 27% | 27% | TOR | +4.5 | #24 |
Tyler Herro | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | 100% | 80% | 67% | 67% | TOR | -0.6 | #6 |
Bam Adebayo | MIA | Ast | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | 40% | 50% | 40% | 40% | TOR | +0.3 | #19 |
Raptors Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #28 | #29 | #19 | #30 | 12.5% |
PF | #30 | #29 | #25 | #30 | 15.8% |
PG | #12 | #20 | #10 | #8 | -17.9% |
SF | #24 | #20 | #30 | #28 | 20.1% |
SG | #23 | #6 | #22 | #22 | 4.4% |
Heat Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #6 | #14 | #6 | #5 | -11.1% |
PF | #1 | #14 | #1 | #1 | -14.8% |
PG | #21 | #11 | #26 | #18 | 3.1% |
SF | #30 | #16 | #2 | #27 | 19.1% |
SG | #6 | #18 | #24 | #10 | -4.2% |

Team Comparison

Recent Trends
- Immanuel Quickley (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
- Mouhamadou Gueye (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 85.9% to 18.7, 10.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Nikola Jovic (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 43.9% to 29.1, 20.2 min average previous 3 games.
- Kevin Love (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.0% to 10.6, 16.3 min average previous 3 games.
- Jalen McDaniels (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 41.5% to 11.2, 19.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Jordan Nwora (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 42.9% to 16.3, 28.6 min average previous 3 games.
- Jontay Porter (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.2% to 15.3, 23.2 min average previous 3 games.
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.4% to 17.5, 27.1 min average previous 3 games.
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