Raptors vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Apr 14th 2024

Raptors
25W-56L

April 14, 2024
01:00PM EST
Odds: 219.5 o/u
Heat
45W-36L


Get ready to turn up the heat and feel the raptor’s roar as the Toronto Raptors swoop into the Kaseya Center to clash with the Miami Heat in a sizzling midday showdown! With the clock set for a 1:00 PM EST tipoff, the stakes are as high as the temperatures in Miami. Our hosts are just a breath away from the top in the Eastern conference, while the Raptors, well, they’re a bit further down the pecking order. Fresh off their last encounter where Miami turned up the thermostat to leave Toronto in a bit of a cold snap, today’s rematch sets the stage for revenge or repeat. Will the Heat keep their fiery streak alive, or will the Raptors claw their way to an unexpected victory? Either way, expect sparks to fly as these two teams turn the court into their own personal battleground. Let’s see if the Raptors can hatch a plan or if the Heat will continue to blaze the trail!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: April 14, 2024 01:00PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Vegas Odds
TOR ML | MIA ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | +850 | -1800 | 223.0 | 15.5/-15.5 |
Recent | +800 | -1600 | 219.5 | 15.5/-15.5 |
Difference | -50 | +200 | -3.5 | – |
Team Performance

11.1% Win Probability

88.9% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12/06/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 37 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 112 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 32 | 34 | 18 | 19 | 103 | ||||
04/12/24 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 22 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 103 | Over | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 33 | 33 | 26 | 33 | 125 | ||||
01/17/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 18 | 25 | 30 | 24 | 97 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 41 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 121 | ||||
03/28/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 92 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 24 | 29 | 31 | 22 | 106 | ||||
11/16/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 31 | 29 | 19 | 25 | 104 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 27 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 112 | ||||
10/24/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 27 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 98 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 20 | 33 | 14 | 90 | ||||
10/22/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 33 | 17 | 33 | 26 | 109 | Over | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 38 | 33 | 21 | 20 | 112 | ||||
04/03/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 17 | 34 | 35 | 114 | Over | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 34 | 21 | 23 | 31 | 109 | ||||
02/01/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 32 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 106 | Under | ![]() |
|
Toronto Raptors TOR | 22 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 110 | ||||
01/29/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 28 | 31 | 26 | 15 | 59 | 124 | Over | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 27 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 59 | 120 | |||
01/17/22 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 30 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 99 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 27 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 104 |
Raptors Vs Over/Under
Heat Vs Over/Under
Raptors Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04/12 | vs MIA | 103-125L | 41 | 23 | 17 | 77 |
04/10 | vs BRO | 102-106L | 45 | 19 | 9 | 94 |
04/09 | @ IND | 123-140L | 40 | 21 | 15 | 94 |
04/07 | @ WAS | 130-122W | 49 | 33 | 13 | 96 |
04/05 | vs MIL | 117-94W | 47 | 24 | 16 | 77 |
04/03 | vs MIN | 85-133L | 48 | 19 | 20 | 90 |
04/02 | @ LAL | 111-128L | 40 | 25 | 17 | 89 |
03/31 | @ PHI | 120-135L | 30 | 31 | 12 | 90 |
03/27 | @ NYK | 101-145L | 28 | 31 | 18 | 84 |
03/25 | @ BRO | 88-96L | 30 | 23 | 10 | 85 |
Heat Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04/12 | @ TOR | 125-103W | 37 | 37 | 4 | 86 |
04/10 | @ DAL | 92-111L | 46 | 22 | 15 | 81 |
04/09 | vs ATL | 117-111W | 46 | 29 | 18 | 88 |
04/07 | vs IND | 115-117L | 39 | 21 | 7 | 84 |
04/05 | vs HOU | 119-96W | 48 | 27 | 9 | 81 |
04/04 | @ PHI | 105-109L | 51 | 24 | 15 | 94 |
04/02 | @ NYK | 109-99W | 39 | 24 | 17 | 74 |
03/31 | vs WAS | 119-107W | 42 | 22 | 13 | 81 |
03/29 | @ POR | 142-82W | 44 | 41 | 8 | 93 |
03/26 | @ GSW | 92-113L | 39 | 24 | 8 | 92 |
Starting Lineups
Toronto Raptors | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RJ Barrett
PF
|
37.7 | 42.9 | 37.5 | 100% | 37.9 |
Gradey Dick
SG
|
24.8 | 21.4 | 18.3 | 50% | 20.7 |
25.6 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 24% | 25.2 | |
31.2 | 34.0 | 29.0 | 60% | 33.3 | |
33.7 | 33.4 | 27.3 | 100% | 27.0 |
Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
47.8 | 33.2 | 37.8 | 100% | 38.2 | |
Jimmy Butler
SF
|
44.8 | 37.9 | 38.2 | 100% | 36.8 |
Tyler Herro
PG
|
38.2 | 35.0 | 34.4 | 90% | 35.3 |
Nikola Jovic
PF
|
21.7 | 26.0 | 16.7 | 90% | 18.9 |
Raptors Notable Injuries
- Immanuel Quickley (PG): Avg: 17.1pts, 3.9reb, 4.9ast, 29.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 7.2
- Kobi Simmons (SG): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.8reb, 3.0ast, 16.9 minutes. Last game: 04/02/24. Impact: 2.0
Heat Notable Injuries
- Terry Rozier (PG/SG): Avg: 19.6pts, 3.9reb, 5.5ast, 33.0 minutes. Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 5.2
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 12.7pts, 2.5reb, 2.8ast, 27.6 minutes. Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 2.8
- Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 11.0 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 3.0
- Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 3.9pts, 1.5reb, 0.4ast, 10.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
- Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.9ast, 7.8 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
- Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.5pts, 0.4reb, 0.3ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.5
- Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.1
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Jimmy Butler | MIA | Pts | 19.5 | 24.3 | +4.8 | 60% | 40% | 33% | 33% | TOR | +4.3 | #23 |
Bam Adebayo | MIA | Pts | 17.5 | 21.8 | +4.3 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | TOR | +2.6 | #25 |
Tyler Herro | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 5.4 | +0.9 | 80% | 80% | 67% | 67% | TOR | -0.9 | #3 |
Caleb Martin | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | 0% | 10% | 27% | 27% | TOR | +0.9 | #21 |
Raptors Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #25 | #26 | #16 | #27 | 9.1% |
PF | #30 | #29 | #30 | #30 | 17.0% |
PG | #10 | #23 | #7 | #9 | -15.1% |
SF | #23 | #21 | #30 | #28 | 20.6% |
SG | #24 | #3 | #22 | #22 | 3.9% |
Heat Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #5 | #14 | #6 | #4 | -13.4% |
PF | #1 | #12 | #1 | #1 | -15.2% |
PG | #20 | #15 | #24 | #19 | 3.1% |
SF | #30 | #16 | #1 | #26 | 19.6% |
SG | #7 | #17 | #24 | #11 | -4.1% |

Team Comparison

Recent Trends
- Ochai Agbaji (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.3% to 29.5, 22.7 min average previous 3 games.
- Javon Freeman-Liberty (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.1% to 24.1, 16.0 min average previous 3 games.
- Mouhamadou Gueye (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 85.9% to 18.7, 10.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.0% to 24.2, 17.4 min average previous 3 games.
- Nikola Jovic (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.6% to 30.0, 19.8 min average previous 3 games.
- Jalen McDaniels (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 41.5% to 11.2, 19.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Jordan Nwora (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.8% to 13.7, 22.4 min average previous 3 games.
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.4% to 17.5, 27.1 min average previous 3 games.
- Malik Williams (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.1% to 19.1, 12.7 min average previous 3 games. The Raptors have a 2-game losing streak on the road.
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