Raptors vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready for a scorching showdown as the underdog Toronto Raptors claw their way into the Kaseya Center to battle the fiery Miami Heat in tonight’s NBA Playoff face-off. With the first round delivering more blowouts than a broken hairdryer, tonight’s matchup promises to dial up the drama and keep fans on the edge of their seats. The Heat are looking to extinguish their recent stumble against the Bucks, while the Raptors aim to rebound from their nail-biter loss to the Pistons. With playoff positions hanging in the balance and the over/under teasing a potentially explosive scoreline, tonight’s game is set to tip off at 9 PM EST. So, will the Heat turn up the temperature or will the Raptors prove they can thrive in the heat of the moment?

Game Breakdown

Game Time: November 29, 2024 09:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	TOR ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+240	-290	224.0	6.5/-6.5
Recent	+185	-225	218.5	8.0/-8.0
Difference	-55	+65	-5.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

2W-8L

AWAY

10W-38L

35.1% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

24W-22L

64.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
12/06/23	Miami Heat MIA	37	27	23	25	00	112	Under
12/06/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	32	34	18	19	00	103	Under
04/14/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	22	25	32	00	103	Over
04/14/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	43	27	24	00	118	Over
04/12/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	22	28	25	28	00	103	Over
04/12/24	Miami Heat MIA	33	33	26	33	00	125	Over
01/17/24	Miami Heat MIA	18	25	30	24	00	97	Under
01/17/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	41	37	16	27	00	121	Under
03/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	23	24	20	25	00	92	Under
03/28/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	29	31	22	00	106	Under
11/16/22	Miami Heat MIA	31	29	19	25	00	104	Under
11/16/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	27	27	30	28	00	112	Under
10/24/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	27	21	23	27	00	98	Under
10/24/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	33	14	00	90	Under
10/22/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	33	17	33	26	00	109	Over
10/22/22	Miami Heat MIA	38	33	21	20	00	112	Over
04/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	17	34	35	00	114	Over
04/03/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	34	21	23	31	00	109	Over
02/01/22	Miami Heat MIA	32	30	21	23	00	106	Under
02/01/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	22	28	30	30	00	110	Under
01/29/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	28	31	26	15	59	124	Over
01/29/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	26	22	25	59	120	Over
01/17/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	30	21	24	24	00	99	Under
01/17/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	31	22	24	00	104	Under

Raptors Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Raptors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
11/25	vs DET	100-102L	50	26	9	104
11/24	vs CLE	108-122L	55	22	14	92
11/21	@ MIN	110-105W	43	22	17	72
11/18	@ IND	130-119W	46	27	23	82
11/16	vs BOS	123-126L	46	35	9	98
11/15	@ DET	95-99L	54	21	14	98
11/12	vs MIL	85-99L	54	20	21	86
11/10	vs LAL	103-123L	40	26	16	82
11/09	vs LAC	103-105L	44	26	10	95
11/06	vs SAC	107-122L	34	25	11	88

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
11/26	@ MIL	103-106L	38	26	8	77
11/24	@ DAL	123-118W	57	27	9	107
11/18	@ PHI	106-89W	53	26	13	87
11/17	vs IND	110-119L	38	21	10	90
11/15	vs IND	124-111W	36	27	10	87
11/12	vs DET	121-123L	43	25	10	101
11/10	vs MIN	95-94W	43	18	22	77
11/08	vs DEN	122-135L	33	33	11	94
11/06	vs PHX	112-115L	43	27	10	92
10/30	@ NYK	107-116L	39	27	10	81

Starting Lineups

Toronto Raptors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Ochai Agbaji SG	20.0	17.8	19.8	90%	19.9
Scottie Barnes PG	46.0	47.9	42.1	100%	40.8
RJ Barrett PF	41.0	46.0	38.2	100%	38.7
Jakob Poeltl C	39.0	42.5	35.5	100%	35.4
Ja’Kobe Walter SF	22.0	9.6	9.5	0%	0

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	44.0	40.9	37.5	100%	38.0
Jimmy Butler SF	41.0	36.0	35.4	100%	35.8
Tyler Herro PG	39.0	36.0	36.2	93%	37.0
Haywood Highsmith PF	19.0	12.1	17.9	27%	16.0
Duncan Robinson SG	24.0	21.4	15.6	50%	18.1

Raptors Notable Injuries

Gradey Dick (SG): Avg: 10.3pts, 2.4reb, 1.3ast, 23.3 minutes. Last game: 11/24/24. Impact: 4.3
Garrett Temple (SG): Avg: 2.6pts, 1.4reb, 0.8ast, 9.0 minutes. Last game: 11/24/24. Impact: 1.2

Heat Notable Injuries

Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 4.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.6ast, 15.0 minutes. Last game: 11/18/24. Impact: 2.0

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	18.5	22.0	+3.5	60%	50%	60%	60%	TOR	+1.0	#22
RJ Barrett	TOR	Pts	20.5	23.6	+3.1	60%	50%	60%	60%	MIA	-2.2	#1
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	9.5	10.7	+1.2	60%	50%	53%	53%	TOR	+0.6	#27
Haywood Highsmith	MIA	Reb	3.5	4.0	+0.5	40%	50%	40%	40%	TOR	-0.0	#17

View All Player Prop Projections

Raptors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#28	#30	#22	#30	14.7%
PF	#29	#27	#30	#30	11.8%
PG	#12	#2	#7	#7	-5.1%
SF	#13	#17	#30	#22	3.4%
SG	#22	#2	#16	#22	2.9%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#5	#8	#19	#6	-8.6%
PF	#13	#26	#4	#10	-3.0%
PG	#16	#14	#29	#22	4.7%
SF	#27	#5	#2	#17	1.0%
SG	#1	#23	#15	#4	-5.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

108.4

109.3

Rebounds per Game

42.5

42.7

Assists per Game

26.4

25.5

Steals per Game

7.9

8.4

Blocks per Game

4.7

3.5

Shots per Game

89.3

86.9

3-Pointers Made per Game

10.4

13.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.9

52.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

32.4

36.8

Turnovers per Game

15.3

10.6

Fouls per Game

20.7

16.3

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.1% to 36.2, 27.0 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Christopher (PG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 117.2% to 22.0, 10.1 min average previous 3 games.
Immanuel Quickley (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.7% to 22.5, 33.5 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Terry Rozier (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.9% to 23.7, 35.4 min average previous 3 games.