Raptors vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at the Kaseya Center tonight as the underdog Toronto Raptors swoop into Miami, hoping to turn up the heat against the formidable Miami Heat in a first-round playoff clash that promises more fireworks than the early blowouts we’ve seen! With the clock ticking down to an 08:30 PM EST tipoff, the stakes are sky-high. Miami is riding the wave of a recent victory and looking to cement their spot near the top of the Eastern Conference, while Toronto is desperate to claw back from the brink and shake up the standings. As the over/under teeters at a tantalizing 224.5, tonight’s matchup is not just a game—it’s a battle for survival and supremacy. So, as the Heat looks to extinguish the Raptors’ fiery resolve, remember, in Miami, it’s always hot, but tonight, the Raptors might just bring a temperature even they can’t handle!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 12, 2024 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	TOR ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+410	-585	222.5	10.5/-10.5
Recent	+240	-290	224.5	10.0/-10.0
Difference	-170	+295	+2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

10W-39L

29.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

28W-22L

70.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
12/01/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	36	27	29	00	116	Over
12/01/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	34	31	33	21	00	119	Over
11/29/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	21	40	23	27	00	111	Over
11/29/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	38	38	25	00	121	Over
12/06/23	Miami Heat MIA	37	27	23	25	00	112	Under
12/06/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	32	34	18	19	00	103	Under
04/14/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	22	25	32	00	103	Under
04/14/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	43	27	24	00	118	Under
04/12/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	22	28	25	28	00	103	Over
04/12/24	Miami Heat MIA	33	33	26	33	00	125	Over
01/17/24	Miami Heat MIA	18	25	30	24	00	97	Under
01/17/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	41	37	16	27	00	121	Under
03/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	23	24	20	25	00	92	Under
03/28/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	29	31	22	00	106	Under
11/16/22	Miami Heat MIA	31	29	19	25	00	104	Under
11/16/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	27	27	30	28	00	112	Under
10/24/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	27	21	23	27	00	98	Under
10/24/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	33	14	00	90	Under
10/22/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	33	17	33	26	00	109	Under
10/22/22	Miami Heat MIA	38	33	21	20	00	112	Under
04/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	17	34	35	00	114	Under
04/03/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	34	21	23	31	00	109	Under
02/01/22	Miami Heat MIA	32	30	21	23	00	106	Under
02/01/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	22	28	30	30	00	110	Under
01/29/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	28	31	26	15	59	124	Over
01/29/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	26	22	25	59	120	Over
01/17/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	30	21	24	24	00	99	Under
01/17/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	31	22	24	00	104	Under

Raptors Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Raptors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/09	@ NYK	108-113L	51	23	12	96
12/07	@ DAL	118-125L	39	37	13	93
12/05	@ OKL	92-129L	51	24	19	91
12/03	@ IND	122-111W	42	28	21	81
12/01	@ MIA	119-116W	47	30	14	88
11/29	vs MIA	111-121L	46	34	18	80
11/25	vs DET	100-102L	50	26	9	104
11/24	vs CLE	108-122L	55	22	14	92
11/21	@ MIN	110-105W	43	22	17	72
11/18	@ IND	130-119W	46	27	23	82

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90
12/02	vs BOS	89-108L	44	24	10	87
12/01	vs TOR	116-119L	45	25	14	88
11/29	@ TOR	121-111W	33	32	8	94
11/26	@ MIL	103-106L	38	26	8	77
11/24	@ DAL	123-118W	57	27	9	107
11/18	@ PHI	106-89W	53	26	13	87
11/17	vs IND	110-119L	38	21	10	90

Starting Lineups

Toronto Raptors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Ochai Agbaji PF	22.0	16.6	19.5	90%	19.7
RJ Barrett SF	49.0	43.5	40.5	100%	41.0
Gradey Dick SG	30.0	24.1	23.7	93%	24.4
Davion Mitchell PG	21.0	15.2	18.1	37%	22.5
Jakob Poeltl C	44.0	39.6	36.4	100%	36.8

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.0	43.6	37.9	100%	38.3
Jimmy Butler SF	38.0	37.5	34.2	100%	34.6
Tyler Herro PG	40.0	44.0	37.8	93%	38.8
Haywood Highsmith PF	19.0	20.3	17.5	43%	17.3
Duncan Robinson SG	22.0	22.1	14.8	50%	16.5

Raptors Notable Injuries

Scottie Barnes (PG/SF): Avg: 19.9pts, 8.1reb, 6.3ast, 34.5 minutes. Last game: 12/09/24. Impact: 7.7
Bruno Fernando (C): Avg: 5.6pts, 4.2reb, 1.1ast, 13.9 minutes. Last game: 12/05/24. Impact: 2.1
Garrett Temple (SG): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.4reb, 0.8ast, 8.8 minutes. Last game: 12/05/24. Impact: 1.0

Heat Notable Injuries

Pelle Larsson (SF): Avg: 5.3pts, 2.1reb, 1.5ast, 16.0 minutes. Last game: 12/04/24. Impact: 2.2
Keshad Johnson (SF): Avg: 1.0pts, 1.0reb, 0.0ast, 6.2 minutes. Last game: 12/04/24. Impact: 0.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
RJ Barrett	TOR	Pts	23.5	28.2	+4.7	60%	60%	47%	47%	MIA	-2.4	#2
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	20.1	+3.6	20%	30%	40%	40%	TOR	+2.0	#27
Jakob Poeltl	TOR	Reb	11.5	12.8	+1.3	20%	50%	47%	47%	MIA	-0.7	#9
Gradey Dick	TOR	Reb	3.5	4.1	+0.6	80%	70%	60%	60%	MIA	+0.1	#17
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Ast	4.5	4.9	+0.4	60%	60%	67%	67%	TOR	-0.2	#12

View All Player Prop Projections

Raptors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#26	#28	#20	#30	9.9%
PF	#27	#28	#30	#30	12.3%
PG	#22	#1	#7	#11	-2.0%
SF	#12	#10	#29	#16	1.0%
SG	#24	#3	#12	#24	3.9%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#5	#9	#11	#4	-8.4%
PF	#15	#24	#9	#11	-2.3%
PG	#17	#14	#28	#24	4.3%
SF	#28	#19	#15	#21	4.8%
SG	#2	#17	#14	#3	-7.6%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

108.8

111.4

Rebounds per Game

43.4

42.8

Assists per Game

26.7

26.6

Steals per Game

7.6

8.5

Blocks per Game

4.6

3.3

Shots per Game

88.8

87.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

10.2

14.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.3

52.1

3-Pt Percentage per Game

32.5

37.7

Turnovers per Game

15.8

11.0

Fouls per Game

21.1

16.3

Recent Trends

Ochai Agbaji (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.0% to 24.4, 35.4 min average previous 3 games.
Jamison Battle (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 39.9% to 10.4, 17.3 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.3% to 16.5, 25.4 min average previous 3 games.
Jonathan Mogbo (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.9% to 22.4, 14.4 min average previous 3 games.
Kelly Olynyk (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 46.6% to 18.0, 33.7 min average previous 3 games.
Immanuel Quickley (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.7% to 22.5, 33.5 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.