Raptors vs Thunder Game Breakdown

Get ready for a clash of titans and underdogs as the Toronto Raptors swoop into the Paycom Center to challenge the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder in a first-round playoff game that promises more fireworks than the previous blowouts! With the Thunder roaring into this matchup on the back of a dominant win and the Raptors hungry to bounce back from a tough loss, tonight’s 9:00 PM EST tipoff is set to be a spectacle. The stakes are sky-high and the odds are eye-popping, with an over/under that suggests the scoreboard operators better be on their toes. As the Thunder look to cement their top-dog status in the West and the Raptors aim for an upset, remember—tonight, it’s not just about who wins or loses, it’s about whether the Raptors can weather the Thunderstorm!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 07, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Vegas Odds

	TOR ML	OKL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+1050	-2500	233.0	19.0/-19.0
Recent	+385	-625	231.0	19.0/-19.0
Difference	-665	+1875	-2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

12W-46L

20.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

51W-10L

79.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
12/05/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	34	33	32	30	00	129	Under
12/05/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	17	25	23	27	00	92	Under
03/22/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	35	26	34	00	123	Under
03/22/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	35	21	22	25	00	103	Under
02/04/24	Toronto Raptors TOR	33	30	24	23	89	127	Over
02/04/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	23	24	34	29	817	135	Over
03/16/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	31	28	24	00	111	Over
03/16/23	Toronto Raptors TOR	29	35	29	35	00	128	Over
11/11/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	24	32	29	28	00	113	Over
11/11/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	29	41	36	26	00	132	Over
02/09/22	Toronto Raptors TOR	34	25	28	30	00	117	Under
02/09/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	22	29	21	26	00	98	Under
12/08/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	28	33	23	00	110	Under
12/08/21	Toronto Raptors TOR	36	28	12	33	00	109	Under

Raptors Vs Over/Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Raptors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/05	@ MEM	107-138L	34	28	9	98
02/04	@ NYK	115-121L	34	27	14	82
02/02	@ LAC	115-108W	43	31	12	85
01/31	@ CHI	106-122L	44	27	7	92
01/29	vs WAS	106-82W	36	31	14	88
01/27	@ NOP	113-104W	54	31	13	100
01/23	vs ATL	122-119W	39	32	19	81
01/21	@ ORL	109-93W	42	29	12	73
01/17	vs MIL	112-130L	43	31	12	91
01/15	@ BOS	110-97W	56	35	10	89

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/05	@ PHX	140-109W	46	24	5	102
02/03	@ MIL	125-96W	55	28	17	99
02/01	@ SAC	144-110W	70	37	11	107
01/29	vs GSW	109-116L	50	21	11	99
01/26	vs POR	118-108W	43	24	7	89
01/23	@ DAL	115-121L	33	26	12	88
01/22	@ UTA	123-114W	39	20	10	95
01/19	@ BRO	127-101W	43	37	11	87
01/17	vs DAL	98-106L	46	24	15	91
01/16	@ CLE	134-114W	39	25	6	105

Starting Lineups

Toronto Raptors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Scottie Barnes PF	49.0	37.6	43.5	100%	43.9
Gradey Dick SF	32.0	22.1	23.1	100%	23.4
Jonathan Mogbo C	16.0	8.9	13.9	13%	20.9
Immanuel Quickley PG	32.0	23.9	36.6	100%	37.1
Ja’Kobe Walter SG	27.0	19.8	13.5	31%	18.1

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SG	18.0	21.4	21.2	100%	21.5
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	50.0	57.0	54.6	100%	54.9
Isaiah Hartenstein C	32.0	34.4	33.8	100%	32.7
Aaron Wiggins SF	18.0	25.8	19.5	30%	25.2
Jalen Williams PF	37.0	42.8	40.3	100%	40.7

Raptors Notable Injuries

RJ Barrett (SG/SF): Avg: 20.6pts, 5.8reb, 4.1ast, 32.3 minutes. Last game: 02/02/25. Impact: 5.7
Jakob Poeltl (C): Avg: 12.8pts, 9.5reb, 2.7ast, 28.5 minutes. Last game: 02/04/25. Impact: 5.2
Garrett Temple (SG): Avg: 2.2pts, 1.3reb, 0.8ast, 8.0 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.6

Thunder Notable Injuries

Alex Caruso GTD (PG/SF): Avg: 8.8pts, 3.5reb, 3.2ast, 26.0 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 2.6
Cason Wallace (PG/SG): Avg: 6.7pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, 22.6 minutes. Last game: 02/01/25. Impact: 3.3
Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.6pts, 3.9reb, 1.8ast, 14.1 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 4.0
Ousmane Dieng (PF/C): Avg: 3.7pts, 1.9reb, 1.0ast, 10.7 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 1.8

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Gradey Dick	TOR	Pts	14.5	18.9	+4.4	20%	30%	20%	20%	OKL	-2.3	#4
Immanuel Quickley	TOR	Pts	13.5	16.9	+3.4	40%	40%	53%	53%	OKL	+0.6	#18
Scottie Barnes	TOR	Reb	7.5	8.7	+1.2	20%	40%	47%	47%	OKL	-0.1	#15

View All Player Prop Projections

Raptors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#25	#30	#21	#28	9.8%
PF	#30	#25	#10	#26	7.1%
PG	#19	#18	#17	#22	2.7%
SF	#21	#18	#11	#18	1.6%
SG	#5	#14	#12	#8	-2.8%

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#20	#4	#3	-10.5%
PF	#12	#1	#4	#2	-11.8%
PG	#18	#8	#4	#4	-5.9%
SF	#1	#15	#5	#2	-12.3%
SG	#4	#19	#19	#3	-7.6%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

108.7

119.8

Rebounds per Game

41.7

44.5

Assists per Game

29.2

26.6

Steals per Game

7.9

10.1

Blocks per Game

4.3

4.5

Shots per Game

88.6

92.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.7

13.8

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.7

57.2

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.8

36.5

Turnovers per Game

14.0

11.4

Fouls per Game

21.3

20.5

Recent Trends

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Alex Caruso (PG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 33.9% to 13.4, 20.3 min average previous 3 games.
Dillon Jones (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 40.4% to 14.7, 10.5 min average previous 3 games.
Immanuel Quickley (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 42.8% to 17.8, 31.1 min average previous 3 games.
Daniel Theis (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.0% to 16.0, 28.0 min average previous 3 games.
Ja’Kobe Walter (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 65.6% to 26.2, 15.8 min average previous 3 games.
Aaron Wiggins (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.7% to 30.2, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
Kenrich Williams (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.4% to 20.2, 14.6 min average previous 3 games.