Jazz vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and jazz things up as the NBA playoffs roll into the vibrant Kaseya Center tonight! It’s a clash of conferences and fortunes as the underdog Utah Jazz, struggling to find their rhythm this season, face off against the fiery Miami Heat in what promises to be a sizzling first-round game. With most of the early playoff games turning into blowouts, tonight’s matchup, tipping off at 9 PM EST, is poised to dial up the intensity. Miami, looking to bounce back from a recent stumble against Indiana, is set to defend their turf fiercely. Meanwhile, the Jazz are desperate to orchestrate an upset and rewrite their rocky season’s tune. As the over/under hints at a high-scoring affair, fans are in for an exhilarating evening where every dribble and dunk counts. So, as the Heat look to cook up a win and the Jazz aim to compose a victory, expect a showdown that hits all the right notes!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 04, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	UTA ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+260	-320	224.0	7.5/-7.5
Recent	+250	-300	223.5	9.0/-9.0
Difference	-10	+20	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

13W-39L

28.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

30W-24L

71.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/02/24	Utah Jazz UTA	34	28	28	30	120	Over
03/02/24	Miami Heat MIA	30	28	32	36	126	Over
12/30/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	25	35	21	109	Over
12/30/23	Utah Jazz UTA	27	27	34	29	117	Over
03/13/23	Utah Jazz UTA	26	31	33	25	115	Over
03/13/23	Miami Heat MIA	33	23	34	29	119	Over
12/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	31	38	27	30	126	Over
12/31/22	Utah Jazz UTA	30	33	35	25	123	Over
11/13/21	Miami Heat MIA	27	31	37	16	111	Under
11/13/21	Utah Jazz UTA	24	24	21	36	105	Under
11/06/21	Utah Jazz UTA	24	28	26	37	115	Over
11/06/21	Miami Heat MIA	27	28	32	31	118	Over

Jazz Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Jazz Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/01	vs NYK	103-119L	45	23	16	96
12/30	@ DEN	121-132L	37	28	16	86
12/28	@ PHI	111-114L	48	27	21	89
12/26	vs POR	120-122L	46	26	13	86
12/21	vs BRO	105-94W	45	25	18	86
12/19	vs DET	126-119W	62	23	27	83
12/13	@ PHX	126-134L	34	30	15	77
12/08	vs SAC	97-141L	38	21	20	80
12/06	vs POR	141-99W	61	34	12	96
12/03	vs OKL	106-133L	36	21	29	70

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86

Starting Lineups

Utah Jazz	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
John Collins PF	32.0	34.0	34.2	77%	36.5
Keyonte George PG	26.0	36.4	27.2	100%	27.6
Walker Kessler C	32.0	30.1	27.4	80%	29.7
Lauri Markkanen SF	35.0	33.6	34.2	100%	34.6
Collin Sexton SG	30.0	36.1	27.3	93%	28.5

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	44.0	37.6	39.0	100%	39.4
Tyler Herro PG	45.0	39.0	39.3	100%	39.6
Haywood Highsmith PF	17.0	19.5	16.1	67%	17.3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF	21.0	21.5	20.3	23%	27.8
Duncan Robinson SG	24.0	20.6	17.3	53%	20.7

Jazz Notable Injuries

Cody Williams (SF/PF): Avg: 3.1pts, 2.2reb, 1.1ast, 18.5 minutes. Last game: 12/30/24. Impact: 1.4
Micah Potter (PF/C): Avg: 2.7pts, 2.6reb, 0.5ast, 12.2 minutes. Last game: 12/28/24. Impact: 1.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.7pts, 5.2reb, 4.8ast, 32.8 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 4.7
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 6.2pts, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 18.8 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.1
Pelle Larsson (SF): Avg: 4.6pts, 1.8reb, 1.3ast, 14.8 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 1.6
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 0.0pts, 2.0reb, 0.0ast, 2.0 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 2.2

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	17.5	19.6	+2.1	40%	50%	33%	33%	UTA	-0.4	#16
Collin Sexton	UTA	Pts	15.5	17.5	+2.0	100%	80%	73%	73%	MIA	-1.0	#8
Lauri Markkanen	UTA	Reb	6.5	7.0	+0.5	40%	40%	47%	47%	MIA	+0.2	#16
Tyler Herro	MIA	Reb	5.5	5.9	+0.4	40%	60%	40%	40%	UTA	-0.5	#8

View All Player Prop Projections

Jazz Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#20	#27	#8	#28	9.0%
PF	#16	#8	#1	#7	-4.7%
PG	#29	#1	#30	#29	10.4%
SF	#26	#1	#11	#22	4.1%
SG	#20	#8	#28	#22	5.0%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#8	#14	#21	#9	-5.1%
PF	#8	#16	#26	#14	-2.5%
PG	#8	#17	#25	#13	-1.4%
SF	#23	#18	#14	#19	1.8%
SG	#12	#11	#7	#11	-4.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

113.0

112.2

Rebounds per Game

44.1

42.7

Assists per Game

25.1

26.1

Steals per Game

6.9

8.9

Blocks per Game

4.8

3.2

Shots per Game

85.1

86.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.4

14.2

2-Pt Percentage per Game

55.4

53.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.1

37.7

Turnovers per Game

17.3

12.4

Fouls per Game

19.1

17.0

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.9% to 19.5, 33.1 min average previous 3 games.
John Collins (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 31.2% to 35.9, 27.3 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 46.1% to 29.9, 20.4 min average previous 3 games.
Johnny Juzang (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.5% to 20.4, 13.5 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.6% to 10.1, 16.5 min average previous 3 games.
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 36.5% to 20.2, 14.8 min average previous 3 games.
Micah Potter (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 36.8% to 11.8, 18.7 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 40.4% to 17.3, 12.3 min average previous 3 games.
Cody Williams (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 106.3% to 21.8, 10.6 min average previous 3 games.