Wizards vs Heat: Underdogs Seek Upset in High-Stakes Showdown!

Wizards
10W-53L

March 10, 2024
06:00PM EST
Odds: 228.0 o/u
Heat
35W-28L


Alright hoop heads, buckle up for another wild ride in the NBA tonight. The Washington Wizards, with their less-than-stellar 10W-53L record, are swaggering into the Kaseya Center, ready to take on the 35W-28L Miami Heat. With tipoff set for 06:00PM EST, you can almost smell the popcorn popping and hear the squeak of sneakers on the court. Now, let’s talk numbers. The Wizards are a whopping 26.5 games back in the Eastern conference, while the Heat are nipping at the top spot, just 1.5 games back. Betting lines? We’ve got ’em. The over/under is sitting pretty at 228.0 with the Wizards line at 9.5, and the Heat line at -9.5. The Heat are looking to bounce back after a 100-107 loss against OKL on 03/08/24, while the Wizards are riding high off a 112-100 victory against CHA. So, grab your beer, place your bets, and let’s get ready for some basketball!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: March 10, 2024 06:00PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Vegas Odds
WAS ML | MIA ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | +380 | -500 | 230.0 | 9.5/-9.5 |
Recent | +275 | -350 | 228.0 | 11.0/-11.0 |
Difference | -105 | +150 | -2.0 | – |
Team Performance

26.7% Win Probability

73.3% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02/02/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 31 | 25 | 31 | 23 | 110 | Under | ![]() |
|
Washington Wizards WAS | 33 | 26 | 15 | 28 | 102 | ||||
11/03/23 | Washington Wizards WAS | 34 | 20 | 27 | 33 | 114 | Over | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 34 | 26 | 41 | 20 | 121 | ||||
04/07/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 28 | 20 | 37 | 108 | Under | ![]() |
|
Washington Wizards WAS | 26 | 27 | 36 | 25 | 114 | ||||
11/25/22 | Washington Wizards WAS | 38 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 107 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 28 | 29 | 25 | 110 | ||||
11/23/22 | Washington Wizards WAS | 26 | 17 | 37 | 25 | 105 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 32 | 23 | 30 | 113 | ||||
11/18/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 31 | 38 | 19 | 16 | 2 | 106 | Under | ![]() |
Washington Wizards WAS | 33 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 3 | 107 | |||
02/07/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 39 | 21 | 31 | 30 | 121 | Under | ![]() |
|
Washington Wizards WAS | 24 | 29 | 17 | 30 | 100 | ||||
12/28/21 | Washington Wizards WAS | 24 | 27 | 22 | 39 | 112 | Over | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 38 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 119 | ||||
11/20/21 | Miami Heat MIA | 25 | 18 | 32 | 25 | 100 | Under | ![]() |
|
Washington Wizards WAS | 26 | 15 | 30 | 32 | 103 | ||||
11/18/21 | Washington Wizards WAS | 19 | 21 | 30 | 27 | 97 | Under | ![]() |
|
Miami Heat MIA | 21 | 26 | 36 | 29 | 112 |
Wizards Vs Over/Under
Heat Vs Over/Under
Starting Lineups
Washington Wizards | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deni Avdija
SF
|
37.2 | 35.6 | 33.5 | 100% | 33.2 |
18.9 | 16.7 | 17.5 | 33% | 18.1 | |
26.7 | 16.9 | 10.1 | 10% | 25.7 | |
Tyus Jones
PG
|
31.0 | 25.6 | 30.9 | 100% | 30.2 |
Kyle Kuzma
PF
|
41.1 | 46.9 | 39.6 | 100% | 38.3 |
Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
49.2 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 100% | 39.1 | |
Jimmy Butler
SF
|
51.3 | 42.7 | 39.7 | 100% | 38.4 |
Nikola Jovic
PF
|
21.8 | 18.6 | 14.8 | 70% | 18.8 |
27.3 | 27.4 | 21.5 | 33% | 30.3 | |
Terry Rozier
PG
|
38.8 | 35.3 | 35.4 | 93% | 36.5 |
Wizards Notable Injuries
- Marvin Bagley III (C): Avg: 11.4pts, 6.1reb, 1.2ast, 20.8 minutes. Last game: 03/04/24. Impact: 4.7
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. (PF): Avg: 2.8pts, 2.2reb, 0.4ast, 7.6 minutes. Last game: 02/25/24. Impact: 1.2
- Justin Champagnie (SG): Avg: 3.7pts, 0.3reb, 0.3ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 03/01/24. Impact: 0.9
- Jules Bernard (SF): Avg: 1.4pts, 0.8reb, 0.6ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 03/01/24. Impact: 0.8
Heat Notable Injuries
- Kevin Love (PF/C): Avg: 9.0pts, 6.2reb, 2.2ast, 17.4 minutes. Last game: 02/27/24. Impact: 3.3
- Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.3pts, 0.4reb, 0.4ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 02/26/24. Impact: 0.4
- Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.0pts, 0.5reb, 0.0ast, 4.7 minutes. Last game: 02/26/24. Impact: 0.0
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Jimmy Butler | MIA | Pts | 22.5 | 28.2 | +5.7 | 40% | 40% | 53% | 53% | WAS | +2.4 | #25 |
Tyus Jones | WAS | Pts | 9.5 | 12.5 | +3.0 | 20% | 40% | 60% | 60% | MIA | -0.1 | #15 |
Bam Adebayo | MIA | Reb | 10.5 | 11.8 | +1.3 | 0% | 20% | 33% | 33% | WAS | +1.9 | #26 |
Caleb Martin | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 5.8 | +1.3 | 60% | 50% | 47% | 47% | WAS | -0.8 | #10 |
Nikola Jovic | MIA | Ast | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | 60% | 60% | 47% | 47% | WAS | +0.5 | #24 |
Corey Kispert | WAS | Ast | 1.5 | 1.9 | +0.4 | 60% | 60% | 67% | 67% | MIA | +0.1 | #17 |
Wizards Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #12 | #26 | #27 | #21 | 5.9% |
PF | #30 | #26 | #26 | #30 | 16.6% |
PG | #18 | #26 | #11 | #24 | 5.5% |
SF | #25 | #10 | #24 | #18 | 2.6% |
SG | #26 | #30 | #27 | #29 | 12.0% |
Heat Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #1 | #4 | #4 | #1 | -34.9% |
PF | #12 | #14 | #23 | #13 | -2.1% |
PG | #7 | #11 | #3 | #3 | -20.4% |
SF | #22 | #14 | #22 | #19 | 3.6% |
SG | #15 | #17 | #17 | #17 | 1.2% |

Team Comparison

Recent Trends
- Johnny Davis (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.2% to 11.1, 16.3 min average previous 3 games.
- Richaun Holmes (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 112.3% to 23.4, 11.0 min average previous 3 games.
- Isaiah Livers (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 45.2% to 16.2, 29.7 min average previous 3 games.
- Landry Shamet (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.7% to 17.0, 28.7 min average previous 3 games. The Wizards have a 3-game losing streak on the road. Overall, they are on a 1-game winning streak. The Heat have a 2-game winning streak at home. Overall, they are on a 2-game losing streak.
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