Athletics

43-57

Arizona Diamondbacks

51-49

9:40 PM ET Chase Field NBCSCA

Back Arizona at home against Jack Perkins and his 6.87 ERA at Chase Field.

The A's have no reliable arm to slow a Diamondbacks lineup that whiffs the least in the league.

SideBET HOME ML, Arizona -134.

TotalPASS, Drake's unknown workload makes 9.5 unplayable.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Perkins carries a 6.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 57.2 innings.
Arizona strikes out just 7.32 per game, ranked 28/30 for contact.
ARI priced at -134 with a 9.5 total on their turf.

Best Bet Arizona moneyline at -134 against Perkins and his 6.87 ERA.

Total9.5

ATH Win—

ARI Win57%

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

ARI 1.5

ATH ML

—

ARI ML

-134 57%

ARI at -134 implies roughly 57 percent, a fair number given the home edge against a struggling opposing starter. The total of 9.5 is hard to lean on because Drake's blank profile makes the Arizona run projection guesswork. The side is cleaner than the total, and I only trust the number on the Diamondbacks moneyline.

Pitching Matchup

ATH

Jack Perkins

2-5 · 57.2 IP

ERA

6.87

WHIP

1.44

K/9

11.3

BB/9

3.6

ARI

Kohl Drake

0-0 · 0.0 IP

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

K/9

—

BB/9

—

Perkins misses bats with an 11.33 K/9 but his 3.62 BB/9 and 9.44 H/9 have translated into a 6.87 ERA that offers little margin. Kohl Drake has zero major league innings on record, so this is effectively an unproven debut with no established stuff or command to grade. The measurable edge sits with whichever bullpen absorbs the middle innings, since Drake's workload projects short.

Offense Comparison

ATHrank of 30ARI

4.5 14 Runs / G 18 4.4

0.247 12 AVG 21 0.238

1.24 11 HR / G 29 0.94

8.74 9 K / G 28 7.32

Arizona's contact-heavy group, fronted by Marte, Perdomo, and Moreno, should punish a Perkins profile that yields hits at a 9.44 H/9 clip. The A's counter with more thump, ranking 11/30 in home runs, and Langeliers plus Soderstrom give them a legitimate stack against an untested Drake. Both lineups are viable, but Arizona's low-strikeout approach best exploits Perkins putting balls in play.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Chase Field is a climate-controlled dome, so weather is a non-factor and run scoring hinges purely on the arms and bats.

DFS Angles

Stack Arizona's top of the order against Perkins, as Marte, Perdomo, and Moreno all project above 11 fpts and thrive on contact. A secondary A's mini-stack of Langeliers and Soderstrom fits against unproven Drake.

Fade Perkins given the 6.87 ERA despite strikeout upside, and treat Drake as a dart-throw with no track record. Neither arm is a confident DFS anchor tonight.

ATH top bats

Shea Langeliers 12.9 proj · $5,400 · 2.4x
Tyler Soderstrom 12.1 proj · $4,700 · 2.6x
Jacob Wilson 10.8 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
Jonah Heim 9.2 proj · $3,200 · 2.9x
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 9.0 proj · $3,300 · 2.7x

ARI top bats

Ketel Marte 13.5 proj · $4,900 · 2.8x
Geraldo Perdomo 12.7 proj · $4,000 · 3.2x
Gabriel Moreno 11.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.7x
Nolan Arenado 10.2 proj · $3,500 · 2.9x
Max Kepler 10.2 proj · $2,900 · 3.5x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ketel Marte - over hits/total bases lean - top projection at 13.5 fpts with 1.63 hits.
Geraldo Perdomo - over hits lean - 1.71 projected hits and 3.17x value.
Gabriel Moreno - RBI lean - 1.58 hits and 0.72 RBI against a leaky Perkins.
Jacob Wilson - over hits lean - 1.63 projected hits for the A's.

On watch