Athletics

40-43

Los Angeles Angels

35-49

3:15 PM ET Angel Stadium NBCSN / Peacock DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Two leaky starters and a wind blowing out to right make the over 9.5 the cleanest play here.

Both arms carry ERAs near 5 and walk or allow contact at high rates with help from the elements.

SidePASS

TotalBET OVER 9.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Civale carries a 1.58 WHIP and 11.58 H/9.
Aldegheri walks 4.46 per nine, ERA 5.47.
Wind 10 mph out to RF, rated positive impact.

Best Bet Over 9.5 is the highest-conviction play given both starters and the favorable wind.

Total9.5

ATH Win—

LAA Win50%

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

LAA 1.5

ATH ML

—

LAA ML

+100 50%

With LAA priced at +100 and ATH's moneyline listed N/A, the side market is effectively a coinflip and untradeable on the away number. The total of 9.5 looks slightly soft given two starters near a 5 ERA plus a helping wind, so the over is where the small edge lives.

Pitching Matchup

ATH

Aaron Civale

5-4 · 62.2 IP

ERA

4.88

WHIP

1.58

K/9

6.7

BB/9

2.8

LAA

Sam Aldegheri

2-3 · 24.2 IP

ERA

5.47

WHIP

1.50

K/9

6.0

BB/9

4.5

Neither starter offers a real edge: Civale misses few bats at 6.66 K/9 and gets hit hard, while Aldegheri's 4.46 BB/9 over just 24.2 IP points to shaky command. If forced to pick a thin edge, Civale's better walk rate of 2.75 is steadier, but both are very hittable.

Offense Comparison

ATHrank of 30LAA

4.7 10 Runs / G 13 4.6

0.248 8 AVG 22 0.240

1.29 6 HR / G 14 1.18

8.65 9 K / G 1 9.54

The Athletics own the stronger profile, ranking 8th in AVG and 6th in HR/game, with lefty-leaning power bats like Kurtz, Langeliers and Soderstrom that fit the wind. The Angels strike out the most in baseball (rank 1) and sit 22nd in AVG, making them more boom-or-bust against a contact-prone Civale.

Weather & Park

10 mph out to RF · favors hitters

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

63°

Humidity

78%

Outdoor at Angel Stadium, 63F with 10 mph wind out to right field flagged as a positive run-scoring factor, which nudges carry on fly balls toward the seats.

DFS Angles

Stack the Athletics against Aldegheri and his 4.46 BB/9, leaning on the pull-side power of Kurtz, Langeliers and Soderstrom into the RF wind.

Fade both starters in cash; if punting, Henry Bolte at $9900 (1.19x) is the standout value bat over either arm.

ATH top bats

Nick Kurtz 15.1 proj · $15,000 · 1.0x
Shea Langeliers 13.9 proj · $14,400 · 1.0x
Tyler Soderstrom 12.8 proj · $13,500 · 1.0x
Henry Bolte 11.8 proj · $9,900 · 1.2x
Jacob Wilson 11.0 proj · $12,300 · 0.9x

LAA top bats

Zach Neto 12.6 proj · $13,200 · 1.0x
Jorge Soler 11.4 proj · $11,700 · 1.0x
Nolan Schanuel 11.3 proj · $10,200 · 1.1x
Denzer Guzman 11.1 proj · $9,600 · 1.2x
Jo Adell 10.4 proj · $10,800 · 1.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Nick Kurtz - hits/total bases over lean - top projected bat at 15.1 fpts with 0.36 HR.
Henry Bolte - hits over lean - projects a team-best 2.18 hits.
Zach Neto - total bases lean - Angels' top bat at 12.6 fpts, 0.33 HR.
Jacob Wilson - hits over lean - 1.50 projected hits versus a hittable lefty.

On watch