Atlanta Braves

54-40

St. Louis Cardinals

50-44

2:15 PM ET Busch Stadium Cardinals.TV Presented by bet365 Day GameWeekend

Back St. Louis at -130 behind the clear command edge with Dustin May opposing a wild JR Ritchie.

May's 2.43 BB/9 and 1.25 WHIP tower over Ritchie's 5.60 BB/9 and 1.47 WHIP in a park-suppressed spot.

SideBET HOME ML, St. Louis -130.

TotalBET UNDER 7.5.

Lean6/10

Confidence

May's 1.25 WHIP dwarfs Ritchie's 1.47 in this matchup.
Ritchie walks 5.60 per nine; STL whiffs least, rank 27/30.
Wind 8 mph in from CF flags a 7.5 total.

Best Bet St. Louis moneyline at -130 is the highest-conviction play given the command edge and park suppression.

Total7.5

ATL Win48%

STL Win57%

Implied ATL3.6

Implied STL3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

STL 1.5

ATL ML

+110 48%

STL ML

-130 57%

ATL3.6

STL3.9

The de-vigged team totals sit at ATL 3.6 and STL 3.9, adding cleanly to the posted 7.5. St. Louis at -130 is a fair price given the command edge, and the number does not scream mispriced on either side. The total is the softer angle, since the wind-in note argues the true number is below 7.5.

Pitching Matchup

ATL

JR Ritchie

1-2 · 45.0 IP

ERA

4.60

WHIP

1.47

K/9

8.4

BB/9

5.6

STL

Dustin May

5-6 · 89.0 IP

ERA

4.55

WHIP

1.25

K/9

8.6

BB/9

2.4

May is the sturdier arm here, pairing an 8.60 K/9 with elite control at 2.43 BB/9, which keeps innings efficient. Ritchie flashes swing-and-miss at 8.40 K/9 but the 5.60 BB/9 is a giveaway, and his 1.47 WHIP shows how often he pitches from behind. The command gap is the story, and it points squarely to May.

Offense Comparison

ATLrank of 30STL

4.9 7 Runs / G 15 4.5

0.246 10 AVG 17 0.242

1.29 6 HR / G 17 1.14

8.07 22 K / G 27 7.72

Atlanta owns the deeper attack, ranking 7th in runs and 6th in HR per game, giving them real stack appeal if Ritchie's counterpart falters. St. Louis is a high-contact group that strikes out the second-least in baseball (rank 27/30), an ideal profile to punish Ritchie's wildness by working counts and forcing walks. Neither offense is a strikeout liability against a pitcher living in the zone like May.

Weather & Park

8 mph in from CF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

81°

Humidity

74%

Busch is outdoor and sunny at 81F, but 8 mph blowing in from center is flagged as a negative for run scoring, knocking down fly balls. That environment nudges this toward pitching and contact over power.

DFS Angles

Lean a St. Louis stack against Ritchie's 5.60 BB/9, prioritizing contact bats since wind blowing in caps homer upside. Nootbaar at 3.25x and Burleson at 3.02x are the value anchors.

Target Dustin May as the safer, higher-floor arm given his command and matchup control. Fade JR Ritchie, whose walk rate creates blow-up risk despite the strikeout upside.

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 11.9 proj · $5,200 · 2.3x
Drake Baldwin 11.2 proj · $4,700 · 2.4x
Michael Harris II 11.1 proj · $4,800 · 2.3x
Ozzie Albies 10.7 proj · $4,400 · 2.4x
Dominic Smith 8.4 proj · $2,800 · 3.0x

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 11.8 proj · $3,900 · 3.0x
JJ Wetherholt 11.4 proj · $4,500 · 2.5x
Ivan Herrera 11.0 proj · $3,900 · 2.8x
Lars Nootbaar 10.7 proj · $3,300 · 3.3x
Jordan Walker 10.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.2x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Lars Nootbaar - over hits - team-high 1.94 projected hits versus a wild Ritchie.
Ivan Herrera - over hits - 1.51 projected hits fits the contact-heavy STL profile.
Matt Olson - modest HR expectations - wind in from CF dampens his 0.27 HR projection.
JJ Wetherholt - over hits - 1.52 projected hits at strong 2.52x value.

On watch

JR Ritchie - 5.60 BB/9 makes his command the pivot of the game.
Dustin May - efficiency at 2.43 BB/9 sets the pace for both totals and the side.
Alec Burleson - top STL projection at 3.02x and a live stack piece.
Michael Harris II - 1.52 projected hits keeps Atlanta's offense dangerous.

View all ATL & STL props →