Baltimore Orioles

49-50

Boston Red Sox

50-48

7:10 PM ET Fenway Park MASN Divisional

Back Sonny Gray and the Red Sox at -142, the sharpest edge on this card.

Gray carries a much stronger ERA and WHIP than Young into a game where Baltimore whiffs at an elite clip.

SideBET HOME ML, Red Sox -142.

TotalPASS, total pegged at 8.5 with no edge.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Gray owns a 2.48 ERA versus Young's 3.25, clear arm gap.
Baltimore ranks 4/30 in K/game at 9.18, prime whiff target.
BOS implied 4.4 runs edges BAL's 4.1 at home.

Best Bet Red Sox moneyline at -142 behind Sonny Gray against a high-strikeout Baltimore lineup.

Total8.5

BAL Win45%

BOS Win59%

Implied BAL4.1

Implied BOS4.4

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

BOS 1.5

BAL ML

+120 45%

BOS ML

-142 59%

BAL4.1

BOS4.4

The de-vigged implied totals sit at BAL 4.1 and BOS 4.4, a narrow home edge that lines up with the pitching mismatch, so -142 on Boston reads as fair rather than a giveaway. The total of 8.5 sits close to the combined implied 8.5, giving no clean number to attack. The side offers more value than the total.

Pitching Matchup

BAL

Brandon Young

8-2 · 91.1 IP

ERA

3.25

WHIP

1.31

K/9

7.3

BB/9

3.2

BOS

Sonny Gray

12-1 · 101.2 IP

ERA

2.48

WHIP

1.12

K/9

8.0

BB/9

2.5

Gray is the superior arm here, pairing a 1.12 WHIP with an 8.00 K/9 and tidy 2.49 BB/9, meaning strikeouts without free passes. Young has posted a strong 8-2 record but his 1.31 WHIP and 3.16 BB/9 show shakier command and more traffic. The edge on the mound is clearly Boston.

Offense Comparison

BALrank of 30BOS

4.6 11 Runs / G 23 4.2

0.237 22 AVG 15 0.244

1.19 14 HR / G 27 0.96

9.18 4 K / G 19 8.18

Baltimore brings a bit more thump with 1.19 HR/game and names like Henderson and Alonso, but its 22/30 batting average and league-heavy strikeout tendency play right into Gray's swing-and-miss profile. Boston's lineup is contact-leaning yet punchless, ranking 27/30 in HR/game, so it leans on Contreras and Rafaela to string hits against Young rather than slug him. Neither offense projects as a smash stack.

Weather & Park

5 mph out to RF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

68°

Humidity

50%

moderate

Sunny and 68F at Fenway with a 5 mph breeze out to right field nudges run scoring slightly upward, a modest positive for the offenses.

DFS Angles

Lean a light Baltimore stack via Henderson, Alonso, and Rutschman for the modest homer upside against Young, with the RF breeze aiding the ball; Boston is a thin power option at 27/30 in HR/game.

Target Sonny Gray as the top SP play given his 2.48 ERA and matchup with a whiff-prone Baltimore lineup; Young is a riskier tournament dart given his 1.31 WHIP.

BAL top bats

Gunnar Henderson 11.9 proj · $5,300 · 2.3x
Pete Alonso 11.9 proj · $5,600 · 2.1x
Adley Rutschman 11.5 proj · $4,300 · 2.7x
Taylor Ward 11.2 proj · $4,700 · 2.4x
Samuel Basallo 10.1 proj · $4,000 · 2.5x

BOS top bats

Willson Contreras 11.5 proj · $5,500 · 2.1x
Wilyer Abreu 10.6 proj · $4,700 · 2.3x
Ceddanne Rafaela 10.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.5x
Romy Gonzalez 9.8 proj · $3,600 · 2.7x
Caleb Durbin 8.8 proj · $3,100 · 2.8x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Sonny Gray - over strikeouts lean - 8.00 K/9 versus a Baltimore offense ranked 4/30 in K/game.
Gunnar Henderson - hits lean - projects 1.49 H at DK $5300 value.
Willson Contreras - total bases lean - team-best 0.27 projected HR and 1.37 hits.
Romy Gonzalez - hits lean - 1.57 projected hits at cheap $3600 salary.

On watch