Boston Red Sox

43-48

New York Mets

40-54

7:15 PM ET Citi Field Apple TV

Sonny Gray at plus money is the play, with Boston getting +114 despite the sharper arm on the mound.

Gray's 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP tower over McLean's numbers, yet the market lists Boston as a live underdog.

SideBET AWAY ML at +114

TotalPASS on 7.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Gray owns a 2.61 ERA to McLean's 3.73.
Boston sits +114 despite the pitching edge.
Mets rank 25th in AVG at .235.

Best Bet Boston moneyline at +114 with Sonny Gray outclassing the opposing starter.

Total7.5

BOS Win47%

NYM Win57%

Implied BOS3.6

Implied NYM3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

NYM 1.5

BOS ML

+114 47%

NYM ML

-134 57%

BOS3.6

NYM3.9

De-vigged team totals sit at BOS 3.6 and NYM 3.9, a narrow gap that undersells the pitching mismatch in Boston's favor. Getting +114 on the team with the far better starter looks like the softest number on the board. The total of 7.5 lines up close to the combined implied 7.5, offering no clear edge.

Pitching Matchup

BOS

Sonny Gray

10-1 · 89.2 IP

ERA

2.61

WHIP

1.10

K/9

8.3

BB/9

2.3

NYM

Nolan McLean

6-5 · 101.1 IP

ERA

3.73

WHIP

1.12

K/9

10.5

BB/9

3.3

Gray is the clear edge with elite command, a 2.32 BB/9 and a tidy 7.67 H/9 that limits traffic. McLean brings bigger swing-and-miss upside at 10.50 K/9 but pairs it with a shakier 3.29 BB/9 that invites free baserunners. On stuff plus control combined, Gray is the more trustworthy arm tonight.

Offense Comparison

BOSrank of 30NYM

4.1 26 Runs / G 22 4.2

0.244 13 AVG 25 0.235

0.89 30 HR / G 15 1.17

8.24 18 K / G 19 8.21

Neither lineup is fearsome against quality pitching, and Boston's power outage stands out as the league's worst at 0.89 HR/game, blunting stack appeal versus McLean's whiffs. New York carries more thump with Soto and Lindor anchoring the middle, giving them the better one-through-five threat against Gray. Expect the Mets to be the more dangerous stack if either side breaks through.

Weather & Park

8 mph L to R cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

78°

Humidity

74%

Sunny and 78F with an 8 mph left-to-right crosswind graded neutral, so the outdoor conditions at Citi Field should not meaningfully push run scoring either direction.

DFS Angles

Lean a light Mets stack around Soto and Lindor, the only side with real power upside against Gray, since Boston's league-worst 0.89 HR/game caps ceiling.

Target Sonny Gray as the safer floor arm given his 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP; McLean is a strikeout-chasing tournament dart with 10.50 K/9 but real blowup risk.

BOS top bats