Cincinnati Reds

38-42

Pittsburgh Pirates

41-41

4:05 PM ET PNC Park SportsNet Pittsburgh DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Back Cincinnati behind Chase Burns, the clear pitching edge at a price that barely costs anything.

Burns is carrying a 2.00 ERA into a matchup against a Pirates starter sitting at 5.75.

SideBET AWAY ML at CIN -118.

TotalBET UNDER 8.0 with wind in and Burns starting.

Strong7/10

Confidence

Burns owns a 2.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 85.2 IP.
Jones counters with a 5.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
Reds price sits at just -118 on the money line.

Best Bet Cincinnati money line at -118 behind Chase Burns is the highest-conviction play.

Total8.0

CIN Win54%

PIT Win50%

Implied CIN4.1

Implied PIT3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

PIT 1.5

CIN ML

-118 54%

PIT ML

+100 50%

CIN4.1

PIT3.9

De-vigged team totals sit at CIN 4.1 and PIT 3.9, a near coinflip that does not fully reflect the gap between the starters. The -118 on Cincinnati looks like fair-to-soft value given Burns is the superior arm at an almost pick-em price. The total at 8.0 feels high once you factor the wind blowing in.

Pitching Matchup

CIN

Chase Burns

9-1 · 85.2 IP

ERA

2.00

WHIP

1.05

K/9

10.8

BB/9

3.1

PIT

Jared Jones

1-1 · 20.1 IP

ERA

5.75

WHIP

1.52

K/9

9.4

BB/9

3.6

Burns is the obvious edge here, missing bats at 10.77 K/9 with a tidy 1.05 WHIP and stingy 6.44 H/9. Jones has swing-and-miss too at 9.40 K/9 but the 10.30 H/9 and 1.52 WHIP show hittable command over a small 20.1 IP sample. This is a lopsided arm matchup in Cincinnati's favor.

Offense Comparison

CINrank of 30PIT

4.2 21 Runs / G 4 5.0

0.226 28 AVG 2 0.257

1.23 9 HR / G 12 1.21

9.47 2 K / G 3 9.27

Pittsburgh's bats are the deeper, more dangerous group, ranking 4th in runs and 2nd in average, giving them real stack appeal against a thin Jones sample. Cincinnati leans on power, 9th in HR/game, but the 28th-ranked average and 2nd-highest strikeout volume make them feast-or-famine against a strikeout arm like Jones. The Reds need the longball; the Pirates can string contact.

Weather & Park

3 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

72°

Humidity

88%

Outdoor at PNC, sunny and 72F but feeling 64F with wind 3 mph in from left field, a negative for run scoring that nudges this toward suppression rather than offense.

DFS Angles

Lean a Pittsburgh stack against the shaky Jones-free side is not the play; instead target the Pirates bats only if fading Burns, but the cleaner build is light Reds power given PNC suppression. With wind in, keep stacks compact rather than chasing homers.

Target Chase Burns as the premier SP play given his 2.00 ERA and strikeout upside. Fade Jared Jones, whose 5.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP make him a risky tournament dart at best.

CIN top bats

Elly De La Cruz 13.3 proj · $5,300 · 2.5x
JJ Bleday 12.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.6x
Nathaniel Lowe 10.7 proj · $3,300 · 3.2x
Sal Stewart 10.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.2x
Eugenio Suarez 9.6 proj · $3,900 · 2.5x

PIT top bats

Bryan Reynolds 11.9 proj · $5,200 · 2.3x
Brandon Lowe 11.9 proj · $5,700 · 2.1x
Ryan O'Hearn 10.0 proj · $4,900 · 2.0x
Jake Mangum 9.2 proj · $3,700 · 2.5x
Nick Gonzales 8.8 proj · $4,500 · 2.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Chase Burns - strikeouts over lean - 10.77 K/9 against a high-whiff Pirates lineup.
Elly De La Cruz - hits lean - top projected Reds bat at 2.04 projected hits.
Jake Mangum - hits lean - 2.03 projected hits at cheap $3700.
Brandon Lowe - home run lean - team-high 0.29 projected HR despite the wind.

On watch