Los Angeles Dodgers

61-36

New York Yankees

54-42

7:05 PM ET Yankee Stadium SportsNet LA

Back the Dodgers moneyline at -108, a near-coinflip price that undersells Ohtani over Cole.

The market prices this as a toss-up despite a massive starting-pitcher gap in LA's favor.

SideBET AWAY ML at -108.

TotalPASS at 9.0, no edge versus the implied 9.0.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Ohtani carries a 1.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP; Cole sits at 4.04.
LAD offense ranks 3rd at 5.22 runs per game.
ML is pick-em -108 both ways despite that pitching edge.

Best Bet Dodgers moneyline at -108 is the highest-conviction play given the Ohtani-over-Cole mismatch.

Total9.0

LAD Win52%

NYY Win52%

Implied LAD4.5

Implied NYY4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

NYY 1.5

LAD ML

-108 52%

NYY ML

-108 52%

LAD4.5

NYY4.5

With both sides at -108, the de-vigged team totals sit even at 4.5 apiece, which feels generous to the Yankees given who starts for LA. The pick-em price on the Dodgers is the soft spot and beats my read that LA should be a modest favorite. The total at 9.0 lines up closely with the combined implied 9.0, offering little edge.

Pitching Matchup

LAD

Shohei Ohtani

8-2 · 85.2 IP

ERA

1.79

WHIP

0.95

K/9

10.0

BB/9

2.8

NYY

Gerrit Cole

3-4 · 49.0 IP

ERA

4.04

WHIP

1.20

K/9

8.6

BB/9

2.0

Ohtani owns the clear edge with a 10.04 K/9 and elite 0.95 WHIP, missing bats and limiting hits at a 5.81 H/9 clip. Cole's 8.63 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 show good command, but his 8.82 H/9 and 1.20 WHIP make him far more hittable. This is a top-tier arm against a mid-tier one.

Offense Comparison

LADrank of 30NYY

5.2 3 Runs / G 8 4.8

0.262 2 AVG 23 0.237

1.31 5 HR / G 1 1.48

7.80 25 K / G 5 9.03

The Dodgers pair the league's second-best contact bat (0.262) with real thump, giving a deep, balanced lineup that can grind Cole. The Yankees lead baseball in HR/game at 1.48 but strike out heavily (9.03 per game, 5th-most), a swing-and-miss profile that plays right into Ohtani's whiff stuff. New York's stack appeal is all power upside, LA's is steadier top-to-bottom.

Weather & Park

5 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Mist

Temp

73°

Humidity

59%

moderate

Outdoor game with mist and a 5 mph wind out to left field flagged as a positive for scoring, mildly favoring the ball carrying for both power lineups.

DFS Angles

Lean a Yankees stack against Cole is less appealing; instead favor the Dodgers top four versus Cole's 8.82 H/9, with the LF wind aiding power bats. If chasing Yankee power, the value tier is loaded thanks to the HR-leading lineup and helping wind.

Target Ohtani as the premium arm given his 1.79 ERA and strikeout upside; fade or cautiously spend on Cole, whose 4.04 ERA and hittable profile cap ceiling against a top-three offense.

LAD top bats

Freddie Freeman 11.9 proj · $5,900 · 2.0x
Andy Pages 11.1 proj · $5,500 · 2.0x
Mookie Betts 10.9 proj · $5,200 · 2.1x
Kyle Tucker 10.3 proj · $5,000 · 2.1x
Teoscar Hernandez 9.2 proj · $4,400 · 2.1x

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 13.9 proj · $6,000 · 2.3x
Trent Grisham 12.5 proj · $4,300 · 2.9x
Cody Bellinger 12.0 proj · $4,800 · 2.5x
Paul Goldschmidt 11.2 proj · $3,800 · 3.0x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 11.2 proj · $4,600 · 2.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - over hits/total bases lean - team-best 13.9 proj fpts and 0.45 proj HR.
Freddie Freeman - over hits lean - 1.45 projected hits at the LAD salary top.
Paul Goldschmidt - value RBI lean - 2.95x value with 0.76 proj RBI.
Trent Grisham - power sprinkle lean - 2.91x value and 0.28 proj HR.

On watch