Los Angeles Dodgers

63-38

Philadelphia Phillies

56-45

6:40 PM ET Citizens Bank Park SportsNet LA

Wheeler's elite strikeout stuff plus wind blowing in points to a UNDER 9.0 lean at Citizens Bank Park.

Two sub-3.00 ERA starters and a negative-impact wind cap the ceiling on both offenses.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wheeler owns a 0.89 WHIP and 10.45 K/9, best arm here.
Combined implied total sits 9.0 with wind blowing in from left.
Wrobleski counters with a 2.69 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Best Bet Under 9.0 is the highest-conviction play with Wheeler's dominance and a run-suppressing wind.

Total9.0

LAD Win47%

PHI Win57%

Implied LAD4.3

Implied PHI4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

PHI 1.5

LAD ML

+114 47%

PHI ML

-134 57%

LAD4.3

PHI4.7

The de-vigged team totals of LAD 4.3 and PHI 4.7 fairly reflect Wheeler's home edge, so there is no glaring soft number on the side. The total of 9.0 looks a touch high given two premium arms and a suppressing wind, so the value is on the under. Philadelphia at -134 is priced efficiently and does not beat my read enough to bet.

Pitching Matchup

LAD

Justin Wrobleski

10-2 · 100.1 IP

ERA

2.69

WHIP

1.02

K/9

6.6

BB/9

1.8

PHI

Zack Wheeler

10-1 · 93.0 IP

ERA

2.13

WHIP

0.89

K/9

10.5

BB/9

2.1

Wheeler is the clear edge, missing bats at a 10.45 K/9 with elite command shown by his 0.89 WHIP and 5.90 H/9. Wrobleski has been excellent in his own right with a 1.80 BB/9 and 1.02 WHIP, but he leans on contact management rather than swing-and-miss at just 6.56 K/9. The strikeout gap tilts this pitching duel toward Philadelphia's ace.

Offense Comparison

LADrank of 30PHI

5.2 3 Runs / G 17 4.4

0.261 2 AVG 23 0.237

1.30 8 HR / G 6 1.32

7.90 25 K / G 7 8.84

Los Angeles brings the deeper, more balanced attack, ranking 3rd in runs and 2nd in average with an Ohtani-Freeman-Betts core that punishes mistakes. Philadelphia is more boom-or-bust, ranking 6th in home runs but 23rd in average and prone to whiffs at the 7th-most strikeouts per game, making them a riskier stack against a strike-thrower. Both lineups carry legitimate power, but the Dodgers' contact edge is the difference-maker.

Weather & Park

9 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

79°

Humidity

82%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Outdoor at Citizens Bank Park with an 8 mph wind blowing in from left field, flagged as a negative run-scoring impact, plus warm 79F air that only partly offsets it. The wind knocking down fly balls favors pitching and the under.

DFS Angles

Lean a lighter Dodgers mini-stack around Ohtani and Freeman since they carry the better contact profile against a tough matchup, but temper expectations with the wind in. Avoid heavy Phillies stacks facing Wrobleski's stingy 1.02 WHIP.

Wheeler is the clear cash-game target given his 10.45 K/9 and 2.13 ERA, worth the premium in a suppressed park. Wrobleski is a sneaky GPP pivot at value given his 2.69 ERA if you want tournament leverage.

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 14.7 proj · $6,500 · 2.3x
Freddie Freeman 11.9 proj · $5,500 · 2.2x
Kyle Tucker 10.3 proj · $4,500 · 2.3x
Andy Pages 9.7 proj · $5,000 · 1.9x
Mookie Betts 9.4 proj · $4,700 · 2.0x

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 14.7 proj · $6,000 · 2.4x
Bryce Harper 12.1 proj · $5,300 · 2.3x
Trea Turner 10.8 proj · $4,800 · 2.2x
Alec Bohm 9.7 proj · $3,000 · 3.2x
Bryan De La Cruz 8.3 proj · $2,000 · 4.1x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Zack Wheeler - over strikeouts lean - 10.45 K/9 against a Dodgers lineup that whiffs 25th-most.
Shohei Ohtani - hits lean - projects a team-high 1.52 hits at $6500.
Kyle Schwarber - home run flyer - team-best 0.55 projected HR despite the wind.
Trea Turner - hits lean - 1.60 projected hits, most on the slate.

On watch

Alec Bohm - 3.22x value at just $3000 makes him a DFS leverage piece.
Bryan De La Cruz - 4.14x tag at $2000 but projections listed N/A, confirm lineup status.
Freddie Freeman - steady 1.42 projected hits anchoring the Dodgers order.
Bryce Harper - 0.28 projected HR and heart of the Phillies attack.

View all LAD & PHI props →