Milwaukee Brewers

55-33

St. Louis Cardinals

47-41

2:15 PM ET Busch Stadium Cardinals.TV Presented by bet365 DivisionalDay Game

Back Milwaukee behind Jacob Misiorowski, who owns the mound edge at -190 in a game that projects to stay under.

An elite arm with a 1.47 ERA against a soft-contact Cardinals lineup and negative-impact wind favors both a Brewers side and the under.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 7.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Misiorowski's 1.47 ERA and 0.78 WHIP tower over Dobbins' 3.63 ERA.
STL implied at just 3.4 runs against a 13.50 K/9 arm.
Wind in from CF flagged negative, backing the under 7.5.

Best Bet Under 7.5, supported by Misiorowski's 0.78 WHIP and negative wind.

Total7.5

MIL Win66%

STL Win38%

Implied MIL4.1

Implied STL3.4

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

STL 1.5

MIL ML

-190 66%

STL ML

+160 38%

MIL4.1

STL3.4

The de-vigged implied totals sit at MIL 4.1 and STL 3.4, and the -190 price on Milwaukee looks fair given the pitching gap. There is no obvious soft number on the side; the total is where value leans, with the environment and Misiorowski capping St. Louis' 3.4. Consider the under rather than laying the heavy chalk.[/TOTAL] [MARKET]The de-vigged implied totals sit at MIL 4.1 and STL 3.4, and the -190 price on Milwaukee looks fair given the pitching gap. There is no obvious soft number on the side; the total is where value leans, with the environment and Misiorowski capping St. Louis' 3.4. The 7.5 number appears beatable to the downside.

Pitching Matchup

MIL

Jacob Misiorowski

9-4 · 104.0 IP

ERA

1.47

WHIP

0.78

K/9

13.5

BB/9

2.3

STL

Hunter Dobbins

1-0 · 17.1 IP

ERA

3.63

WHIP

1.38

K/9

10.0

BB/9

3.7

Misiorowski is the clear edge with a 13.50 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, and a stingy 4.67 H/9 that limits baserunners. Dobbins offers strikeout upside at 10.00 K/9 but a 3.68 BB/9 and 8.95 H/9 across only 17.1 innings signal command and sample-size risk. This is a lopsided arms matchup in Milwaukee's favor.

Offense Comparison

MILrank of 30STL

5.1 4 Runs / G 12 4.6

0.254 6 AVG 12 0.247

0.93 27 HR / G 20 1.12

8.21 20 K / G 27 7.69

Milwaukee's contact-heavy attack ranks 4th in runs per game and 6th in average, a tough profile against Dobbins' hittable H/9. St. Louis whiffs a lot, ranking 27th in strikeouts per game, a dangerous trait facing a high-K starter. Neither club is a big power threat, with both sitting in the bottom third in home runs per game.

Weather & Park

6 mph in from CF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

74°

Humidity

91%

Busch Stadium is outdoor with sunny 74F conditions, but wind at 6 mph blowing in from center is flagged as a negative for scoring, suppressing fly-ball carry.

DFS Angles

Lean a Milwaukee mini-stack of Turang, Yelich, and Contreras against Dobbins' 8.95 H/9 and shaky command, as the Brewers hold the better matchup and 4.1 implied total.

Target Misiorowski as a premium DFS play given his 13.50 K/9 versus a Cardinals lineup ranked 27th in strikeouts; fade Dobbins outside deep tournaments.

MIL top bats

Brice Turang 13.2 proj · $5,100 · 2.6x
Christian Yelich 12.9 proj · $4,700 · 2.7x
William Contreras 12.5 proj · $4,500 · 2.8x
Jackson Chourio 12.2 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
Jake Bauers 11.4 proj · $4,600 · 2.5x

STL top bats

Ivan Herrera 9.3 proj · $4,000 · 2.3x
Jordan Walker 8.6 proj · $5,000 · 1.7x
Alec Burleson 8.3 proj · $4,100 · 2.0x
JJ Wetherholt 7.9 proj · $4,600 · 1.7x
Lars Nootbaar 7.4 proj · $3,500 · 2.1x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Brice Turang - hits lean - top projected bat at 1.61 projected hits.
Christian Yelich - total bases lean - 12.9 fpts and best value at 2.74x.
William Contreras - hits lean - 1.57 projected hits against a hittable arm.
Jordan Walker - under on production - just 1.73x value versus elite Misiorowski.

On watch