New York Mets

36-51

Atlanta Braves

50-35

7:15 PM ET Truist Park WPIX Divisional

Back the Braves at home where the superior lineup makes ATL -110 the value side.

Atlanta's clearly better offense is barely priced above a coinflip against a wild Mets starter.

SideBET HOME ML at ATL -110

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Braves score 4.74 runs/game (rank 9) versus Mets 3.98 (rank 28).
Scott walks 4.20 per nine, dangerous against Atlanta's lineup.
ATL -110 near pick'em despite home edge and offense gap.

Best Bet Atlanta Braves moneyline at -110, backing the better offense at home against a wild starter.

Total9.5

NYM Win51%

ATL Win52%

Implied NYM4.7

Implied ATL4.8

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

ATL 1.5

NYM ML

-106 51%

ATL ML

-110 52%

NYM4.7

ATL4.8

De-vigged implied totals sit tight at NYM 4.7 and ATL 4.8, so the market sees this as essentially even. Given the sizable offensive rank gap, ATL -110 offers marginal value as the home side with the better lineup. The total at 9.5 matches the combined implied runs almost exactly, leaving no clear edge.

Pitching Matchup

NYM

Christian Scott

2-0 · 45.0 IP

ERA

3.20

WHIP

1.33

K/9

10.6

BB/9

4.2

ATL

Grant Holmes

4-4 · 77.1 IP

ERA

3.96

WHIP

1.36

K/9

8.1

BB/9

4.3

Scott brings the better swing-and-miss with a 10.60 K/9, but his 4.20 BB/9 is a genuine control concern that can unravel against a patient home lineup. Holmes offers steadier length with a 3.96 ERA over 77.1 innings, though his own 4.32 BB/9 is even higher. Neither arm commands the zone, so this projects as a traffic-heavy night with the slight stuff edge to Scott.

Offense Comparison

NYMrank of 30ATL

4.0 28 Runs / G 9 4.7

0.229 28 AVG 11 0.246

1.13 17 HR / G 12 1.22

8.34 15 K / G 24 7.91

Atlanta's deeper lineup profiles better against a walk-prone Scott, with power spread through Olson, Baldwin, and Harris that punishes free baserunners. The Mets counter with Soto and Lindor at the top but rank near the bottom in average, making them more boom-or-bust against Holmes. Atlanta is the more reliable stack given contact skills and a low team strikeout tendency (rank 24).

Weather & Park

3 mph L to R cross · neutral

Conditions

Partly cloudy

Temp

86°

Humidity

67%

Truist Park is outdoor with a warm 86F feels-like 90F, but the 3 mph cross breeze is flagged neutral, so no meaningful push on run scoring either way.

DFS Angles

Stack the Braves against Scott's 4.20 BB/9, with Olson, Baldwin, and Harris the core mini-stack in a warm outdoor park. Their low team strikeout rate (rank 24) means more balls in play.

Neither arm is a strong play given both walk over four per nine, but Scott's 10.60 K/9 gives him modest ceiling if you punt salary elsewhere. Fade both in cash formats.

NYM top bats

Juan Soto 15.4 proj · $5,800 · 2.7x
Francisco Lindor 12.9 proj · $4,300 · 3.0x
Bo Bichette 11.7 proj · $4,500 · 2.6x
Carson Benge 11.4 proj · $4,000 · 2.9x
Francisco Alvarez 11.2 proj · $3,300 · 3.4x

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 13.3 proj · $5,000 · 2.7x
Drake Baldwin 12.6 proj · $4,700 · 2.7x
Michael Harris II 11.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.7x
Ozzie Albies 11.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.7x
Mauricio Dubon 9.8 proj · $3,400 · 2.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Bo Bichette - over hits - team-high 1.65 projected hits.
Carson Benge - over hits - 1.74 projected hits at cheap $4000.
Matt Olson - over total bases - 0.30 projected HR versus a wild lefty-friendly matchup.
Juan Soto - anytime RBI - 1.03 projected RBI leads the slate.

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