New York Mets

42-58

Milwaukee Brewers

61-37

7:40 PM ET American Family Field SNY

Take the Mets moneyline at +172, where Nolan McLean's arm outclasses the price.

McLean is the clear pitching edge against a Brewers lineup that lacks power to punish him.

SideBET AWAY ML at +172

TotalPASS on 7.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

McLean's 3.34 ERA and 1.09 WHIP dwarf Gasser's 4.91 and 1.21.
Milwaukee ranks 30/30 in HR at 0.92 per game.
NYM +172 implies just 3.3 runs, beatable value.

Best Bet Mets moneyline at +172 is the highest-conviction play behind McLean's pitching edge.

Total7.5

NYM Win37%

MIL Win67%

Implied NYM3.3

Implied MIL4.2

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

MIL 1.5

NYM ML

+172 37%

MIL ML

-205 67%

NYM3.3

MIL4.2

The de-vigged team totals put Milwaukee at 4.2 and New York at 3.3, a full-run gap that feels steep given McLean's superiority over Gasser. At -205, Milwaukee demands roughly a 67 percent win rate, more than the pitching matchup justifies. The plus-money underdog price is where the value leaks.

Pitching Matchup

NYM

Nolan McLean

7-6 · 113.1 IP

ERA

3.34

WHIP

1.09

K/9

10.7

BB/9

3.3

MIL

Robert Gasser

2-4 · 51.1 IP

ERA

4.91

WHIP

1.21

K/9

8.5

BB/9

2.5

McLean carries the decisive edge here, missing bats at a 10.74 K/9 with a stingy 1.09 WHIP over 113.1 innings. Gasser owns better control at 2.47 BB/9 but gives up far more contact, allowing 8.45 H/9 to go with a 4.91 ERA. This is a meaningful mismatch in favor of the visitor.

Offense Comparison

NYMrank of 30MIL

4.1 26 Runs / G 5 5.1

0.234 26 AVG 6 0.253

1.17 16 HR / G 30 0.92

8.24 18 K / G 16 8.27

Milwaukee's lineup is contact-driven and dangerous top to bottom (6/30 AVG), but its league-worst power profile blunts stack upside against a bat-misser like McLean. New York's offense is thin (26/30 runs, 26/30 AVG), leaning on Soto and Lindor to manufacture against Gasser rather than any deep, powerful stack.

Weather & Park

9 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

66°

Humidity

81%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

The retractable roof at American Family Field sits over overcast 66F conditions with a 9 mph breeze out to center flagged as a positive run influence. That slight boost matters more for the contact-oriented home side than New York.

DFS Angles

Lean a light Brewers stack around Turang, Yelich, and Contreras for their contact and on-base ability, but temper expectations given the 30/30 power rank against McLean. Mets bats are best used as one-off value plays, not a full stack.

Target McLean as a strikeout ceiling play thanks to his 10.74 K/9 against a middling-whiff Milwaukee lineup. Fade Gasser, whose 4.91 ERA and 8.45 H/9 cap his DFS floor despite the home matchup.

NYM top bats

Juan Soto 15.4 proj · $6,200 · 2.5x
Francisco Lindor 12.9 proj · $4,100 · 3.2x
Bo Bichette 11.1 proj · $4,500 · 2.5x
Carson Benge 10.7 proj · $4,000 · 2.7x
A.J. Ewing 10.1 proj · $3,700 · 2.7x

MIL top bats

Brice Turang 12.5 proj · $5,300 · 2.4x
Christian Yelich 12.0 proj · $4,800 · 2.5x
Jackson Chourio 11.7 proj · $5,400 · 2.2x
William Contreras 11.5 proj · $4,500 · 2.6x
Jake Bauers 10.8 proj · $4,800 · 2.3x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Nolan McLean - over strikeouts lean - 10.74 K/9 versus a Milwaukee lineup that whiffs 8.27 times per game.
Francisco Lindor - hits lean - projects a team-best 1.59 hits at strong 3.15x value.
Christian Yelich - RBI lean - projects 0.90 RBI in a contact-friendly heart of the order.
Juan Soto - reduced HR expectation - just 0.44 projected against Gasser's control profile.

On watch

Nolan McLean - his strikeout stuff sets the ceiling for both the side and total.
Brice Turang - top projected Brewers bat at 12.4 fpts and a table-setter.
William Contreras - 0.25 projected HR is real power in a low-power lineup.
Carson Benge - value bat projecting 1.67 hits at $4000.

View all NYM & MIL props →