Back the Yankees at home behind Gerrit Cole in a matchup that favors New York on the mound.
Cole's swing-and-miss profile tops a Mets offense that hits just .239 and ranks 22nd in average.
- Cole's 9.15 K/9 dwarfs Thornton's 6.77 strikeout rate.
- Mets sit 21st in runs at 4.34 per game.
- Yankees carry the 4.1 implied total versus New York's 3.4.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged team totals of 4.1 for New York and 3.4 for the Mets add up to the posted 7.5, showing an efficient market. Yankees at -184 is a steep price with no listed line movement to lean on, so the moneyline offers thin value. The total sits right on our number with no clear edge either way.
Pitching Matchup
Cole brings the clear stuff edge with a 9.15 K/9 and tidy 1.72 BB/9, missing bats consistently across a heavier 115.1-inning workload. Thornton has been sharp too, posting a 3.44 ERA and elite 1.97 BB/9, but his 6.77 K/9 signals more contact allowed. The strikeout gap tilts the mound battle toward the home ace.
Offense Comparison
The Yankees lean on power, ranking 2nd in HR/game at 1.36 but just 26th in average at .235, making them a boom-or-bust stack led by Judge and Goldschmidt. The Mets pair a top-7 power mark (1.27 HR/game) with a weak 22nd-ranked .239 average, so their appeal hinges on Soto and Lindor connecting. Both lineups strike out plenty, dampening consistent traffic against quality arms.
Weather & Park
Outdoor day game with light rain and a 36% rain chance at 77F, plus a 7 mph cross wind graded neutral, so no clear boost or drag on run scoring.
DFS Angles
Stack the Yankees, whose 2nd-ranked 1.36 HR/game power plays anywhere and gets a Judge-Goldschmidt top of the order that projects for big fantasy upside.
Target Cole for his 9.15 K/9 ceiling; Thornton is a lower-upside arm given his modest 6.77 K/9 despite the strong ratios.
- Juan Soto 9.7 proj · $5,900 · 1.7x
- Francisco Lindor 8.9 proj · $4,400 · 2.0x
- Bo Bichette 7.9 proj · $3,900 · 2.0x
- Carson Benge 7.2 proj · $3,800 · 1.9x
- Marcus Semien 6.8 proj · $3,100 · 2.2x
- Aaron Judge 13.5 proj · $5,700 · 2.4x
- Paul Goldschmidt 10.0 proj · $3,000 · 3.3x
- Heliot Ramos 8.5 proj · $3,500 · 2.4x
- Cody Bellinger 8.4 proj · $4,500 · 1.9x
- Spencer Jones 6.9 proj · $3,300 · 2.1x
Players to Watch
- Aaron Judge - over hits - projects a team-best 1.35 hits and 13.5 fpts.
- Paul Goldschmidt - over total bases - 1.35 projected hits at a bargain $3000 (3.34x).
- Juan Soto - anytime hit - 0.94 projected hits leads the Mets side.
- Francisco Lindor - over hits - 1.00 projected hits from the leadoff spot.
- Gerrit Cole - his strikeout total sets the game's tone.
- Aaron Judge - top projected bat with 0.30 HR expectation.
- Juan Soto - the Mets' best bet to answer with power.
- Rain chance 36% - potential for delays affecting bullpen usage.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: NYM 3 – NYY 2
Mets lead the season series 3-2.
Today's MLB Slate
COL @ DET
LAA @ WAS
PHI @ ATL
NYM @ NYY
BAL @ TOR
HOU @ TB
LAD @ MIA
CLE @ MIN
CIN @ MIL
CWS @ STL
PIT @ CHC
KC @ BOS
SEA @ ATH
TEX @ ARI
SD @ SF
