Philadelphia Phillies

82-67

Atlanta Braves

88-61

1:35 PM ET Truist Park NBCSP DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Back the Braves at home behind Tyler Mahle, the clear pitching and market favorite.

Mahle's dominant run prevention pairs with a top-10 offense inside a hitter-friendly Truist afternoon.

SideBET HOME ML at -130.

TotalPASS, implied totals match the 9.5 exactly.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Mahle owns a 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Atlanta ranks 8th in runs at 4.62/game.
Braves imply 4.9 runs as -130 favorites.

Best Bet Braves moneyline at -130 behind Mahle's 1.25 ERA edge.

Total9.5

PHI Win48%

ATL Win57%

Implied PHI4.6

Implied ATL4.9

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

ATL 1.5

PHI ML

+110 48%

ATL ML

-130 57%

PHI4.6

ATL4.9

The de-vigged implied totals of PHI 4.6 and ATL 4.9 sum precisely to the posted 9.5, signaling an efficient total with no exploitable edge. Atlanta at -130 lines up with our read on the pitching mismatch. There is no soft number to attack on the total.

Pitching Matchup

PHI

Tim Mayza

3-3 · 64.1 IP

ERA

3.08

WHIP

1.04

K/9

8.9

BB/9

2.1

ATL

Tyler Mahle

3-1 · 43.1 IP

ERA

1.25

WHIP

0.92

K/9

7.9

BB/9

1.3

Mahle holds the decisive edge with a 1.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and elite 1.25 BB/9 command over 43.1 innings. Mayza carries solid ratios at 3.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP but works from a 55-game, 64.1-inning profile that leaves length in question. The stuff and command advantage sits firmly with Atlanta's starter.

Offense Comparison

PHIRank of 30ATL

4.5 #14 Runs / G 4.6 #8

0.241 #19 AVG 0.247 #10

1.17 #13 HR / G 1.26 #8

8.28 #16 K / G 8.07 #20

Atlanta's lineup shapes up deeper for power, led by Olson, Acuna, and Michael Harris II, and carries the higher HR rate. Philadelphia leans on Schwarber, Harper, and Turner at the top but must break through against Mahle's command. The Braves offer the cleaner stack against a bullpen-style opposing arm.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 1:35 PM ET

7 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

90°

Rain

Humidity

38%

moderate

Now: 72° · 5 mph out to CF · Cloudy

Game-time conditions are sunny and 90F with a 7 mph wind blowing out to center, a positive push for run scoring in outdoor Truist Park.

DFS Angles

Stack the Braves given the wind blowing out, 90F heat, and their 8th-ranked offense facing a reliever-profile starter.

Target Mahle as your DFS ace on his 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP; fade Mayza given the innings uncertainty.

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 9.3 proj · $5,600 · 1.7x
Bryce Harper 9.1 proj · $4,900 · 1.9x
Trea Turner 9.0 proj · $3,800 · 2.4x
Alec Bohm 7.9 proj · $3,100 · 2.5x
Luis Arraez 7.4 proj · $3,500 · 2.1x

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 9.0 proj · $4,600 · 2.0x
Ronald Acuna Jr. 9.0 proj · $5,600 · 1.6x
Drake Baldwin 8.7 proj · $4,300 · 2.0x
Michael Harris II 8.2 proj · $4,200 · 2.0x
Ozzie Albies 8.2 proj · $4,000 · 2.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Matt Olson - HR lean - team-best 0.33 projected homers in a wind-out park.
Michael Harris II - hits lean - 1.20 projected hits at strong 1.95x value.
Drake Baldwin - total bases lean - 1.17 hits and 0.23 HR projection leading off.

On watch