New York Yankees

48-33

Boston Red Sox

34-46

1:10 PM ET Fenway Park ABC/ESPN App DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Wind in from right and Boston's dead bat make the under 8.5 the cleanest play at Fenway.

A run-suppressing breeze pairs with two starters carrying sub-3.75 ERAs.

SidePASS, NYY -124 is fairly priced with no extra edge.

TotalBET UNDER 8.5, wind in and Boston's 28th-ranked offense.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 4 mph in from RF, listed impact negative on scoring.
Boston ranks 28/30 in runs at 3.99 per game.
Implied team totals just 4.3 NYY and 4.2 BOS.

Best Bet Under 8.5 is the highest-conviction play given the in-blowing wind and Boston's bottom-tier bats.

Total8.5

NYY Win55%

BOS Win49%

Implied NYY4.3

Implied BOS4.2

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

BOS 1.5

NYY ML

-124 55%

BOS ML

+106 49%

NYY4.3

BOS4.2

De-vigged team totals land at 4.3 NYY and 4.2 BOS, summing right under the posted 8.5 with the vig baked in. The number looks efficient on the side, with NYY at -124 reflecting the talent gap. The total is where the soft spot lives, as the weather read argues for fewer runs than 8.5.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Gerrit Cole

2-2 · 32.1 IP

ERA

3.62

WHIP

1.18

K/9

8.1

BB/9

2.5

BOS

Jake Bennett

1-3 · 26.2 IP

ERA

3.71

WHIP

1.12

K/9

7.6

BB/9

1.7

Cole carries a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with the better strikeout punch at 8.13 K/9, but a 2.52 BB/9. Bennett counters with sharper command, a 1.72 BB/9 and 1.12 WHIP, giving Boston a quiet edge in control. Two efficient arms here, with neither offering an obvious blow-up profile.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30BOS

5.0 5 Runs / G 28 4.0

0.242 18 AVG 13 0.245

1.48 1 HR / G 30 0.86

8.79 7 K / G 20 8.18

New York brings the league's top power at 1.48 HR/game and a top-five scoring unit, the clear stack threat against Bennett. Boston, by contrast, sits dead last at 0.86 HR/game and 28th in scoring, leaning contact with little thump to chase the breeze. The lineup shape favors the Yankees doing damage, the Red Sox grinding for singles.

Weather & Park

5 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Mist

Temp

65°

Humidity

90%

Mist, 65F and a 4 mph wind blowing in from right field all point negative for run scoring at outdoor Fenway, knocking down fly balls toward right.

DFS Angles

Lean a New York mini-stack, the only side with real power upside at 1.48 HR/game, though the in-from-RF wind tempers ceiling. Boston's 30th-ranked power makes a full Red Sox stack hard to justify.

Both arms are tournament-viable, but Bennett's 1.72 BB/9 and 1.12 WHIP make him the cheaper command play against a strikeout-prone Yankees lineup. Cole offers the safer floor via 8.13 K/9 if you pay up.

NYY top bats

Paul Goldschmidt 11.8 proj · $4,300 · 2.7x
Ben Rice 10.1 proj · $5,800 · 1.7x
Cody Bellinger 9.9 proj · $5,200 · 1.9x
Jasson Dominguez 9.1 proj · $3,600 · 2.5x
Jose Caballero 9.0 proj · $3,500 · 2.6x

BOS top bats

Willson Contreras 10.6 proj · $4,900 · 2.2x
Wilyer Abreu 9.9 proj · $4,400 · 2.3x
Jarren Duran 9.7 proj · $4,700 · 2.1x
Ceddanne Rafaela 9.7 proj · $4,100 · 2.4x
Masataka Yoshida 8.9 proj · $2,800 · 3.2x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Paul Goldschmidt - hits lean - top NYY projection at 1.47 H and strong 2.73x value.
Masataka Yoshida - hits over lean - team-best 1.41 projected H at just $2800.
Willson Contreras - RBI interest - leads Boston bats at 0.78 projected RBI.
Cody Bellinger - RBI lean - team-high 0.83 projected RBI for New York.

On watch