New York Yankees

49-40

@

Tampa Bay Rays

52-35

6:40 PM ET Tropicana Field YES Divisional

Back the Yankees moneyline at -102 behind Cam Schlittler, the clear pitching edge in a pickem market.

New York carries the far superior arm while the price sits essentially even.

SideBET AWAY ML at -102.

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Schlittler's 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP dwarf Jax's 3.45 and 1.27.
NYY -102 is near-coinflip despite the arm gap.
De-vigged totals are tight at NYY 3.7, TB 3.8.

Best Bet Yankees moneyline at -102 with Schlittler's dominant profile against a lesser arm.

Total7.5

NYY Win50%

TB Win54%

Implied NYY3.7

Implied TB3.8

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

TB 1.5

NYY ML

-102 50%

TB ML

-116 54%

NYY3.7

TB3.8

The market prices this as a near-tossup with de-vigged team totals of 3.7 and 3.8, yet the mound talent gap suggests NYY -102 is the softer number worth taking. The total of 7.5 lines up with those implied totals, offering little edge either way. The moneyline is where the value lives.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Cam Schlittler

8-5 · 104.0 IP

ERA

2.08

WHIP

0.96

K/9

10.6

BB/9

1.8

VS

TB

Griffin Jax

4-5 · 60.0 IP

ERA

3.45

WHIP

1.27

K/9

8.7

BB/9

3.0

Schlittler is the decisive edge, pairing a 10.64 K/9 with elite 1.82 BB/9 command that keeps traffic minimal. Jax misses fewer bats at 8.70 K/9 and walks more at 3.00 BB/9, leaving him prone to bigger innings. New York owns this matchup on the mound.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30TB

4.8 10 Runs / G 15 4.6

0.234 25 AVG 4 0.259

1.44 1 HR / G 26 0.97

8.88 6 K / G 30 7.15

Tampa is a contact-heavy group that leads the league in fewest strikeouts, a profile that can nibble at a strikeout arm but rarely slugs given its bottom-tier power. New York swings for the fences as the top HR club but fans often, making it more boom-or-bust against Jax. The Rays' put-the-ball-in-play shape is the tougher stylistic test for Schlittler.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium — weather is a non-factor.

Tropicana Field is a climate-controlled dome, so weather is a non-factor for run scoring.

DFS Angles

Lean a Yankees stack given their league-best power upside against Jax's higher walk rate; Rays bats face a much tougher matchup.

Target Schlittler as a premium strikeout play backed by his 2.08 ERA and 10.64 K/9; treat Jax as a fade or value tournament dart only.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 12.8 proj · $5,600 · 2.3x
Cody Bellinger 11.5 proj · $5,100 · 2.3x
Trent Grisham 11.5 proj · $4,300 · 2.7x
Paul Goldschmidt 9.9 proj · $4,000 · 2.5x
Jasson Dominguez 9.9 proj · $3,500 · 2.8x

TB top bats

Junior Caminero 11.0 proj · $6,300 · 1.8x
Yandy Diaz 10.3 proj · $5,300 · 1.9x
Jonathan Aranda 10.1 proj · $4,300 · 2.3x
Cedric Mullins 8.7 proj · $3,600 · 2.4x
Chandler Simpson 7.3 proj · $3,900 · 1.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - hits lean - team-high 1.37 projected hits against Jax.
Trent Grisham - HR-interest lean - 0.27 projected homers at strong 2.67x value.
Jonathan Aranda - hits lean - team-high 1.47 projected hits for Tampa.
Chandler Simpson - hits lean - 1.52 projected hits as a pure contact bat.

On watch

Junior Caminero - top Rays power source at 0.33 projected homers.
Cody Bellinger - 1.24 hits and homer upside in a plus spot.
Jasson Dominguez - cheapest Yankee at $3500 with 2.83x upside.
Yandy Diaz - 1.30 projected hits anchoring the Tampa lineup.

View all NYY & TB props →

Form & Head-to-Head

Season series: NYY 1 – TB 4

Tampa Bay owns the season series 4-1 over New York.

Today's MLB Slate

PHI -220KC +184

76° · 6 mph in from RF

NYY -102TB -116

HOU +102WAS -120

79° · 4 mph L to R cross

NYM +112ATL -132

75° · 5 mph R to L cross

MIL -116STL -102

76° · 7 mph in from RF

ARI +106SD -124

66° · 5 mph R to L cross

TOR -110SF -106

59° · 7 mph in from RF

COL +188LAD -225

65° · 3 mph out to LF