New York Yankees

50-42

Tampa Bay Rays

54-36

1:10 PM ET Tropicana Field YES DivisionalDay Game

Back Drew Rasmussen and the Rays at home, with a lean to the under 7.5.

Rasmussen's elite command dwarfs Yarbrough, and New York's whiff-heavy bats play into his hands.

SideBET HOME ML at TB -158.

TotalBET UNDER 7.5.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Rasmussen sports a 2.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 97 innings.
Yankees strike out 9.08 times per game, fifth-most in baseball.
Rays own the season series 6-2 over New York.

Best Bet Under 7.5, leaning on Rasmussen's 0.89 WHIP against a strikeout-prone Yankees lineup.

Total7.5

NYY Win43%

TB Win61%

Implied NYY3.5

Implied TB4.0

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

TB 1.5

NYY ML

+134 43%

TB ML

-158 61%

NYY3.5

TB4.0

The de-vigged implied totals sit at Tampa Bay 4.0 and New York 3.5, adding to the posted 7.5. Tampa Bay at -158 is pricey but justified given the starting pitcher mismatch. The number looks efficient, so any edge lives on the total rather than a bloated favorite price.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Ryan Yarbrough

0-0 · 35.2 IP

ERA

4.29

WHIP

1.18

K/9

6.9

BB/9

3.8

Drew Rasmussen

7-4 · 97.0 IP

ERA

2.78

WHIP

0.89

K/9

8.9

BB/9

1.6

Rasmussen is the clear edge with a 0.89 WHIP, 8.91 K/9, and a tidy 1.58 BB/9 that limits free baserunners. Yarbrough carries a serviceable 1.18 WHIP but a shaky 3.84 BB/9 and just 6.90 K/9, leaving less margin. The command gap firmly favors Tampa Bay's arm.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30TB

4.7 9 Runs / G 16 4.5

0.233 26 AVG 4 0.257

1.43 1 HR / G 26 0.97

9.08 5 K / G 30 7.16

New York brings a top-ranked power profile at 1.43 HR/game but hits just .233, so they live and die by the long ball against Rasmussen's control. Tampa Bay is a contact-first group, fourth in average at .257 and league-best in avoiding strikeouts, a tough style to face for Yarbrough's walk-prone approach. The Rays' bat-to-ball skills give them the more sustainable path to scoring.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium — weather is a non-factor.

Tropicana Field is a climate-controlled dome, so weather is a non-factor for run scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack the Rays against Yarbrough's 3.84 BB/9, led by contact bats who rarely whiff; the lineup profiles well to string hits together in a controlled dome.

Target Rasmussen as a premium anchor given his strikeout upside and elite ratios against a high-K opponent; fade Yarbrough, whose walk rate caps his ceiling.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 10.9 proj · $5,700 · 1.9x
Cody Bellinger 9.9 proj · $5,100 · 2.0x
Trent Grisham 9.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.2x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 9.0 proj · $4,600 · 2.0x
Paul Goldschmidt 8.6 proj · $4,100 · 2.1x

TB top bats

Junior Caminero 12.6 proj · $6,300 · 2.0x
Yandy Diaz 12.4 proj · $5,300 · 2.3x
Jonathan Aranda 10.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.5x
Cedric Mullins 9.7 proj · $3,500 · 2.8x
Jonny DeLuca 9.4 proj · $3,700 · 2.5x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Junior Caminero - over on total bases - team-high 12.6 projected fpts and 0.38 HR.
Yandy Diaz - over hits - 1.57 projected hits at strong 2.34x value.
Jonathan Aranda - hit prop lean - 1.45 projected hits at team-best contact profile.
Aaron Yankees hitters - under strikeouts risk - lineup fans 9.08 times per game.

On watch