Back Drew Rasmussen and the Rays on the moneyline at -134 against a sub-.234 Yankees lineup.
Rasmussen owns a decisive pitching edge over a high-strikeout New York offense in a neutral dome.
- Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP clearly top Cole's 3.61.
- Yankees hit just .234, ranked 28th, with 9.19 strikeouts per game.
- Rays' de-vigged implied total 3.4 edges New York's 3.1.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals of 3.4 Rays and 3.1 Yankees sum exactly to the posted 6.5, so the total is priced efficiently. Tampa Bay at -134 reflects a modest home favorite, and the 3.4 team total supports siding with them. There is no clear number-beating edge on the total, only a lean on the side.
Pitching Matchup
Rasmussen is the superior arm here, pairing a 0.91 WHIP and 1.67 BB/9 with 9.10 K/9 across a heavy 172 innings. Cole is quality with 9.28 K/9 and elite 1.77 BB/9 control, but his 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP trail. The edge belongs to the Rays righty on both run prevention and baserunner suppression.
Offense Comparison
New York is a boom-or-bust, power-first group ranking 2nd in HR/game but 28th in average and 6th in strikeouts, vulnerable to Rasmussen's swing-and-miss. Tampa Bay offers the opposite profile, ranking 2nd in average and dead last in strikeouts, a contact attack better built to grind at-bats against Cole. The Rays' bat-to-ball skill is the cleaner matchup.
Weather & Park
Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.
Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is a non-factor and run scoring is unaffected by wind or temperature.
DFS Angles
Stack the Rays bats against Cole given their league-best contact rate and lowest strikeout profile, with Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda the core in a neutral dome.
Target Rasmussen as a premium anchor behind his 2.67 ERA and 9.10 K/9; Cole is a riskier play against a HR-heavy Yankees-facing Rays lineup but offers strikeout upside.
- Ben Rice 8.0 proj · $5,400 · 1.5x
- Cody Bellinger 7.2 proj · $4,100 · 1.7x
- Luis Garcia Jr. 6.8 proj · $4,300 · 1.6x
- Spencer Jones 6.3 proj · $3,300 · 1.9x
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. 5.3 proj · $4,200 · 1.3x
- Junior Caminero 9.3 proj · $6,000 · 1.5x
- Yandy Diaz 8.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.0x
- Jonathan Aranda 8.1 proj · $3,700 · 2.2x
- Liam Hicks 7.0 proj · $3,700 · 1.9x
- Chandler Simpson 6.6 proj · $3,200 · 2.1x
Players to Watch
- Jonathan Aranda - hits over lean - projects a team-high 1.22 hits at 2.18x value.
- Yandy Diaz - hits over lean - 1.18 projected hits atop the order at 1.99x.
- Junior Caminero - total bases lean - top projection at 9.3 fpts with 0.31 HR.
- Chandler Simpson - hits over lean - 1.02 projected hits and strong contact profile.
- Junior Caminero - highest Rays projection and power source at 9.3 fpts.
- Jonathan Aranda - best value at 2.18x can swing a GPP lineup.
- Cody Bellinger - 1.74x value and steady 0.92 projected hits for Yankees.
- Spencer Jones - cheapest Yankee at $3300 with 1.91x upside.
Form & Head-to-Head
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
