Back Milwaukee at home as Jacob Misiorowski faces a wobbling Robbie Ray.
A Cy Young-caliber arm against a high-WHIP starter gives the Brewers a clean edge.
- Misiorowski owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over 174.2 innings.
- Ray carries a 5.02 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 5.65 BB/9.
- Milwaukee ranks 2/30 in runs and 1/30 in AVG.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals sit at SD 2.8 and MIL 3.7, and Milwaukee at -200 reflects their deserved favorite status given the arm gap. The price is steep, so the run line and the under offer more value than laying two-to-one. The total of 6.5 looks fair but leans low given Misiorowski's suppression of San Diego's offense.
Pitching Matchup
Misiorowski is the clear edge with elite 13.02 K/9 stuff and sharp 2.27 BB/9 command, a strikeout machine who limits traffic. Ray is the opposite profile right now, walking 5.65 per nine with a 1.53 WHIP that constantly puts runners aboard. The gap between these two arms is about as wide as any single-game matchup gets.
Offense Comparison
Milwaukee leads the league in average and ranks 2nd in scoring, a contact-heavy lineup built to punish Ray's wildness rather than chase power. San Diego's bats are middling across the board and strike out often, a tough profile against Misiorowski's swing-and-miss arsenal. The Brewers are the far more appealing stack given the pitching mismatch they draw.
Weather & Park
American Family Field is a retractable-roof park, so treat weather as a non-factor in run scoring tonight.
DFS Angles
Stack Milwaukee against Ray's 5.65 BB/9, with the top-ranked offense primed to exploit free passes in a neutral dome.
Target Misiorowski as a premium DFS play given his 13.02 K/9 ceiling against a high-whiff San Diego lineup; fade Ray entirely.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 7.1 proj · $5,900 · 1.2x
- Ty France 6.9 proj · $3,900 · 1.8x
- Manny Machado 6.8 proj · $4,900 · 1.4x
- Jackson Merrill 6.5 proj · $4,500 · 1.5x
- Xander Bogaerts 5.7 proj · $3,400 · 1.7x
- Jackson Chourio 9.4 proj · $5,600 · 1.7x
- William Contreras 8.8 proj · $4,300 · 2.0x
- Jake Bauers 8.5 proj · $4,400 · 1.9x
- Brice Turang 8.2 proj · $5,300 · 1.5x
- Joey Ortiz 7.0 proj · $3,300 · 2.1x
Players to Watch
- Jackson Chourio - over on hits - top projected bat at 1.16 H facing Ray.
- William Contreras - RBI lean - 0.69 projected RBI leads the lineup.
- Joey Ortiz - over on hits - 1.02 projected H at bargain $3300.
- Ty France - value hit prop - 0.93 projected H at just $3900.
- Jacob Misiorowski - elite 0.80 WHIP arm anchoring the under.
- Jackson Chourio - 9.4 projected fpts leads all bats tonight.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. - San Diego's top bat tasked with beating Misiorowski.
- Jake Bauers - 0.20 projected HR gives Milwaukee pop in a weak-power lineup.
Form & Head-to-Head
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
