Pittsburgh Pirates

52-48

New York Yankees

55-44

7:05 PM ET Yankee Stadium YES

Back the under on 8.0 with Paul Skenes and his elite run-suppression profile taking the mound.

Skenes brings a 1.04 WHIP and 10.79 K/9 into a spot where the Yankees rely heavily on the long ball.

SidePASS until the Yankees confirm a starter, given PIT +102 offers no clear edge without offense data.

TotalBET UNDER 8.0, leaning on Skenes over the Yankees' contact-poor lineup.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Skenes owns a 3.43 ERA over 115.1 IP this year.
His 2.03 BB/9 limits free baserunners against a 23rd-ranked AVG offense.
De-vigged team totals sit low at PIT 3.9, NYY 4.1.

Best Bet Under 8.0 is the highest-conviction play thanks to Skenes' 1.04 WHIP and New York's 23rd-ranked AVG.

Total8.0

PIT Win50%

NYY Win55%

Implied PIT3.9

Implied NYY4.1

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

NYY 1.5

PIT ML

+102 50%

NYY ML

-120 55%

PIT3.9

NYY4.1

The de-vigged team totals of PIT 3.9 and NYY 4.1 line up tightly with the 8.0 total, leaving little obvious edge on the number itself. New York is a modest -120 favorite despite an unconfirmed starter, which suggests the market is pricing the matchup, not a known arm. With Skenes projecting to hold New York under their 4.1 implied, the total leans slightly soft to the under.

Pitching Matchup

PIT

Paul Skenes

9-8 · 115.1 IP

ERA

3.43

WHIP

1.04

K/9

10.8

BB/9

2.0

NYY

Probable not confirmed

Skenes is the clear headliner, pairing a 10.79 K/9 with elite command at 2.03 BB/9 and just 7.35 H/9, an ace profile that misses bats and avoids traffic. The Yankees probable is not confirmed, so there is no arm to grade on the other side yet. Any edge on the mound tilts decisively toward Pittsburgh until New York names a starter.

Offense Comparison

PITrank of 30NYY

— Runs / G 10 4.7

— AVG 23 0.236

— HR / G 1 1.45

— K / G 6 9.00

New York leads the league in HR/game at 1.45 but ranks 23rd in AVG and strikes out at a 6th-most 9.00 per game, a boom-or-bust shape that struggles to string hits against a strikeout arm like Skenes. Pittsburgh's team offense data is not available, so their lineup shape and stack appeal cannot be assessed here. The Yankees' home-run reliance is their only real path to their implied total.

Weather & Park

6 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

66°

Humidity

65%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and 66F with a 6 mph wind out to center flagged as a positive scoring influence, a mild boost that fits the Yankees' power-first approach. That breeze is the one factor working against the under.

DFS Angles

Skenes is the premier DFS target given his 10.79 K/9 and matchup against a high-strikeout Yankees lineup; the New York starter is unconfirmed and cannot be recommended.

PIT top bats

Bryan Reynolds 11.4 proj · $5,500 · 2.1x
Brandon Lowe 10.2 proj · $5,800 · 1.8x
Ryan O'Hearn 9.9 proj · $5,300 · 1.9x
Jake Mangum 9.7 proj · $3,800 · 2.6x
Esmerlyn Valdez 9.2 proj · $4,000 · 2.3x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Paul Skenes - over strikeouts lean - 10.79 K/9 against a 6th-most 9.00 K/game offense.
Jake Mangum - over hits lean - team-high 1.86 projected hits at cheap $3800.
Bryan Reynolds - over total bases lean - top projected bat at 11.4 fpts.
Ryan O'Hearn - HR lean - 0.24 projected HR with wind out to center.

On watch