San Diego Padres

48-50

Atlanta Braves

57-41

7:15 PM ET Truist Park BravesVision

Back Atlanta at home behind the clear pitching edge and a far better lineup facing German Marquez.

Holmes outclasses a wild Marquez while the Braves attack the majors' 27th-ranked offense.

SideBET HOME ML at -144.

TotalPASS at 9.0.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Marquez owns a 5.24 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over 44.2 innings.
Braves offense ranks 6th in runs at 4.99 per game.
Padres offense sits 27th in runs, 29th in average at .228.

Best Bet Atlanta moneyline at -144 is the highest-conviction play behind Holmes and the superior lineup.

Total9.0

SD Win45%

ATL Win59%

Implied SD4.3

Implied ATL4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

ATL 1.5

SD ML

+122 45%

ATL ML

-144 59%

SD4.3

ATL4.7

Atlanta at -144 implies roughly 59 percent, with de-vigged team totals of 4.7 for the Braves and 4.3 for the Padres. Given the pitching and offense gaps, that home number looks fair rather than soft, so the value is thin but on the correct side. The 9.0 total sits close to the combined implied 9.0, offering no obvious edge either way.

Pitching Matchup

German Marquez

4-2 · 44.2 IP

ERA

5.24

WHIP

1.54

K/9

6.1

BB/9

4.5

ATL

Grant Holmes

6-4 · 92.1 IP

ERA

3.70

WHIP

1.34

K/9

7.6

BB/9

4.0

Holmes is the stronger arm with a 3.70 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 7.62 K/9 across 92.1 innings, though his 4.01 BB/9 shows shaky command. Marquez has been hittable and wild, posting a 4.48 BB/9 and just 6.11 K/9, giving up 9.57 hits per nine. The edge clearly belongs to Holmes.

Offense Comparison

SDrank of 30ATL

4.1 27 Runs / G 6 5.0

0.228 29 AVG 9 0.250

1.07 22 HR / G 4 1.33

8.27 17 K / G 24 8.04

Atlanta brings real thump against a control-challenged Marquez, ranking 4th in HR/game at 1.33 with Olson, Harris, and Albies anchoring a stack-worthy core. San Diego's contact-first group whiffs the least of the two but ranks near the bottom in average, making sustained rallies against Holmes tougher. The Braves are the more dangerous lineup tonight.

Weather & Park

4 mph R to L cross · neutral

Conditions

Mist

Temp

74°

Humidity

91%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Mist at 74F with a light 4 mph cross breeze rated neutral, so no meaningful wind or park boost to run scoring at outdoor Truist Park.

DFS Angles

Stack the Braves against Marquez's wildness and hittability, leaning on Olson, Harris, and Albies for power upside in a neutral park.

Target Grant Holmes as the safer arm against a bottom-tier Padres offense; fade Marquez given his 5.24 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

SD top bats

Fernando Tatis Jr. 13.2 proj · $5,400 · 2.4x
Manny Machado 12.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.9x
Xander Bogaerts 12.0 proj · $3,400 · 3.5x
Ty France 11.6 proj · $3,100 · 3.8x
Miguel Andujar 11.2 proj · $2,800 · 4.0x

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 12.2 proj · $5,200 · 2.3x
Drake Baldwin 11.3 proj · $4,700 · 2.4x
Michael Harris II 10.9 proj · $4,800 · 2.3x
Ozzie Albies 10.3 proj · $4,100 · 2.5x
Mauricio Dubon 8.4 proj · $3,300 · 2.6x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Matt Olson - hits/HR lean - top projected Brave at 12.2 fpts facing a homer-prone Marquez.
Drake Baldwin - RBI lean - team-high 1.16 projected RBI in a plus matchup.
Michael Harris II - HR lean - 0.25 projected HR against wild Marquez.
Ty France - hits lean - 1.63 projected hits at value $3100.

On watch