Back St. Louis at -104 behind a clear starting-pitching edge in a pick-em priced game.

Vegas / Market

The de-vigged implied totals sit even at 4.5 apiece, which undersells the gap between a 3.01 and a 5.38 ERA starter. St. Louis at -104 is essentially a free look given the pitching mismatch, so the value is on the road side. The total of 9.0 sits close to fair with two high-strikeout offenses in play.

Offense Comparison

Both lineups strike out heavily, STL ranking 27th and ARI 28th in whiffs, so neither offense projects as a reliable stack against quality command. Arizona's 28th-ranked power at 0.93 HR/game is a poor fit against a pitcher who limits hits, while St. Louis at least offers modest thump from Burleson and Walker against Kelly's hittable arsenal. Neither side is a premium matchup, but STL has the softer opposing arm to attack.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Chase Field is under the dome and climate controlled, so weather is a non-factor for run scoring tonight.

DFS Angles

Lean a light St. Louis stack against Kelly's 1.51 WHIP, with Nootbaar at $3400 (3.26x) and Burleson at $4200 the value anchors in a neutral dome.

Target Michael McGreevy as a stable arm given his 3.01 ERA against a low-power ARI lineup, and fade Merrill Kelly given his 5.38 ERA and walk issues.

Players to Watch

• Lars Nootbaar - over hits lean - projects a team-best 1.60 hits versus Kelly.
• Corbin Carroll - hits lean - top ARI projection at 1.50 hits against McGreevy.
• Alec Burleson - RBI upside - 0.87 projected RBI at strong 2.91x value.

• Jordan Walker - highest STL RBI projection at 1.05 versus Kelly.
• Ketel Marte - 12.3 fpts ceiling anchors any ARI counter-stack.
• JJ Wetherholt - 0.27 projected HR adds pop at $4500.
• Merrill Kelly - his command will decide whether STL cashes.