St. Louis Cardinals

51-48

Los Angeles Angels

40-61

9:38 PM ET Angel Stadium Cardinals.TV Presented by bet365

Liberatore's 5.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP against a wind blowing out points toward the OVER 9.0.

A leaky Cardinals starter plus a shaky Angels bullpen day inflates a total already climbing to nine.

SidePASS

TotalBET OVER 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Liberatore carries a 1.48 WHIP and 9.95 H/9 over 93.2 innings.
Fermin has just 31.0 IP across 28 games with 4.94 BB/9.
Wind 2 mph out to center flagged positive for run scoring.

Best Bet OVER 9.0, leaning on Liberatore's leaky profile, a bullpen-game opponent, and a breeze blowing out.

Total9.0

STL Win52%

LAA Win51%

Implied STL4.5

Implied LAA4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

LAA 1.5

STL ML

-110 52%

LAA ML

-106 51%

STL4.5

LAA4.5

The line de-vigs to a dead-even 4.5 implied team total for each side, matching the near-pick ML of STL -110 and LAA -106. There is no side edge worth chasing here, so the value lives on the total, where a nine already prices in offense but Liberatore's WHIP and the wind justify a lean over. The number does not clearly beat my read on either team to win.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Matthew Liberatore

5-6 · 93.2 IP

ERA

5.00

WHIP

1.48

K/9

8.5

BB/9

3.5

LAA

Jose Fermin

3-1 · 31.0 IP

ERA

2.90

WHIP

1.23

K/9

9.9

BB/9

4.9

Liberatore misses bats at 8.50 K/9 but gets hit hard, and a 3.48 BB/9 keeps traffic on base. Fermin owns the shinier 2.90 ERA and 9.87 K/9, but 31.0 innings over 28 appearances screams reliever or opener, and his 4.94 BB/9 is a genuine command red flag. Neither arm profiles as a lockdown horse, with Fermin's usage hinting at a bullpen-heavy night.

Offense Comparison

STLrank of 30LAA

4.5 13 Runs / G 19 4.3

0.241 19 AVG 20 0.239

1.10 21 HR / G 20 1.10

7.73 27 K / G 1 9.49

The Angels punch out more than any team in the league, which plays into Liberatore's swing-and-miss stuff even if he yields loud contact when hit. The Cardinals whiff nearly as often at rank 27, but their contact-leaning bats can grind at-bats against Fermin's walk-prone profile. Trout, Neto, Adell, and Soler give Los Angeles the more explosive stack ceiling despite the strikeout risk.

Weather & Park

2 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

70°

Humidity

87%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny, 70 degrees, with a light 2 mph breeze out to center that the brief tags as a positive for run scoring at outdoor Angel Stadium. Conditions modestly favor the ball carrying rather than suppressing offense.

DFS Angles

Stack the Angels around Trout, Neto, Adell, and Soler against a lefty who allows 9.95 H/9, with the CF breeze aiding their power bats. Nootbaar at $3200 (3.34x) is a cheap Cardinals pivot if you want secondary exposure.

Fade Liberatore given the WHIP, walks, and hitter-friendly wind. Fermin is a risky tournament dart at best given only 31.0 innings and 4.94 BB/9, so treat both starters as fades in cash.

STL top bats