Tampa Bay Rays

56-38

Boston Red Sox

46-48

1:35 PM ET Fenway Park Rays.TV DivisionalDay Game

Bennett's elite ratios against two of the game's lowest-power offenses point to the under 9.0.

Both lineups rank near the bottom in home runs while Boston's arm is stingy in his sample.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Bennett owns a 2.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 47.2 innings.
Boston ranks 30th in HR/game at 0.90 and 25th in runs.
Tampa Bay sits 26th in HR/game despite a strong 0.258 team AVG.

Best Bet Under 9.0 is the highest-conviction play given Bennett's ratios and both lineups' lack of power.

Total9.0

TB Win52%

BOS Win52%

Implied TB4.5

Implied BOS4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

BOS 1.5

TB ML

-108 52%

BOS ML

-108 52%

TB4.5

BOS4.5

The market is a true pick'em at TB -108 / BOS -108 with de-vigged team totals of 4.5 each. That 4.5 for Boston feels generous given their bottom-tier power facing nobody in particular, and the 9.0 total sits above my read given Bennett's ratios. The under is where the soft number lives.

Pitching Matchup

Mason Englert

0-2 · 30.2 IP

ERA

3.82

WHIP

1.37

K/9

8.3

BB/9

2.1

BOS

Jake Bennett

4-3 · 47.2 IP

ERA

2.64

WHIP

0.94

K/9

6.7

BB/9

1.5

Bennett is the clear arm to trust here, pairing a 0.94 WHIP with elite command (1.53 BB/9) and stingy contact suppression (7.06 H/9), though his 47.2-inning body of work is small. Englert misses more bats (8.34 K/9) but gets hit hard with a 10.43 H/9 and a 1.37 WHIP. The edge on the mound belongs decisively to Boston's starter.

Offense Comparison

TBrank of 30BOS

4.5 15 Runs / G 25 4.1

0.258 3 AVG 16 0.243

1.00 26 HR / G 30 0.90

7.15 30 K / G 16 8.24

Tampa Bay is a contact-first lineup, ranking 3rd in AVG and dead last in strikeouts (7.15 K/game), so they put balls in play but lack thump (26th in homers). Boston is the weaker overall unit, 25th in scoring with the league's worst power output, making sustained rallies against a sharp starter difficult. Neither offense profiles as a fearsome stack tonight.

Weather & Park

9 mph L to R cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

71°

Humidity

42%

moderate

Sunny, 71 degrees at outdoor Fenway with a 9 mph left-to-right crosswind graded as neutral, so no meaningful boost or drag on run scoring.

DFS Angles

Lean Tampa Bay bats in a light way, as their league-best contact profile (3rd in AVG, fewest strikeouts) travels better against Bennett than Boston's power-starved order does against Englert.

Target Jake Bennett as the premium DFS arm given his 2.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP; fade Englert, whose 10.43 H/9 and 1.37 WHIP invite trouble.

TB top bats

Junior Caminero 13.5 proj · $6,100 · 2.2x
Yandy Diaz 13.5 proj · $5,100 · 2.6x
Jonathan Aranda 12.3 proj · $4,300 · 2.9x
Jonny DeLuca 10.0 proj · $3,600 · 2.8x
Ryan Vilade 9.9 proj · $3,300 · 3.0x

BOS top bats

Ceddanne Rafaela 12.1 proj · $4,200 · 2.9x
Wilyer Abreu 10.8 proj · $4,300 · 2.5x
Caleb Durbin 9.9 proj · $3,000 · 3.3x
Jarren Duran 9.5 proj · $4,000 · 2.4x
Masataka Yoshida 9.1 proj · $3,200 · 2.8x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Yandy Diaz - over hits lean - 1.71 projected hits at $5100 (2.64x).
Ceddanne Rafaela - over hits lean - team-high 1.80 projected hits.
Jonathan Aranda - hits lean - 1.71 projected hits at value-priced $4300 (2.85x).

On watch